ZAMBIA: CROP FORECASTS FOR 2007/2008 SHOW SUFFICIENT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LUSAKA 000549 DEPARTMENT FOR EEB/TPP/ABT/ATP (JANET SPECK) ROME FOR USFAO SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAGR ECON EAID ZA SUBJECT: ZAMBIA: CROP FORECASTS FOR 2007/2008 SHOW SUFFICIENT SUPPLY REF: LUSAKA 479 LUSAKA 00000549 001.4 OF 002 ¶1. (U) Summary. The Ministry of Agriculture has released its crop forecasts for the 2007/2008 agricultural season, as well as Zambia's food balance for the marketing season covering the period from May 1, 2008 to April 30, 2009. The figures show that on a national level estimated production, combined with existing food reserves, will be adequate to meet or even exceed Zambian demand. On a local level, however, the GRZ predicts food insecurity in communities that experienced adverse weather conditions, such as flooding, and as the result of poor internal transport and distribution. End Summary. -------------- Not a Bumper Harvest, But Adequate -------------- ¶2. (U) According to the Ministry of Agriculture's recently released crop forecast, Zambia's agricultural output for the 2007/2008 harvest will meet national demand. When Zambia's major staple food crops (maize, rice, wheat, sorghum, millet, potatoes, and cassava) are measured in maize equivalent, using kilocalories, the combined figure shows a modest staple food surplus of 564,547 metric tons. GRZ production estimates are listed below. Commodity demand figures include amounts to be purchased by the Food Reserve Agency (FRA). Commodity supplies consist of production estimates combined with existing FRA stock. GRZ Estimates (in thousands of metric tons) Staple Crops 2007/2008 2006/2007 -------------- -------------- -------------- Maize Production 1,212 1,366 Maize Supply 1,602 1,799 Maize Requirements 1,459 1,549 Maize Surplus 143 250 Cassava Production 1,161 1,186 Cassava Supply 1,163 Cassava Requirements 735 Cassava Surplus 428 463 Rice Production 24 18 Rice Supply 27 Rice Demand 37 Rice Deficit 10 Wheat Production 180 185 Wheat Supply 206 Wheat Demand 195 Wheat Surplus 11 Cash Crops 2007/2008 2006/2007 -------------- -------------- -------------- Sorghum 10 13 Soy Beans 57 55 Sunflower 13 9 Groundnuts 71 55 Sweet Potatoes 107 76 Irish Potatoes 10 23 Cotton 100 87 Burley Tobacco 8 5 Virginia Tobacco 13 21 ¶3. (U) The GRZ announced that Zambia will record a cassava surplus for the tenth year in a row. Cassava output has generally not been affected by stressful years when other staple foods are in deficit. The figures reflect production declines in most staple products, including maize, cassava, wheat, and sorghum. Anticipated increased output in groundnuts, sweet potatoes, and sunflower reflects some crop diversification. -------------- Poor Productivity/Weather Hinder Growth -------------- ¶4. (U) Regionally, Luapula, Eastern, Northern, and Copperbelt provinces increased their maize production levels by an estimated 24, 19, 24, and 15 percent respectively. The remaining five provinces, Southern, Lusaka, Central, Northwestern, and Western, experienced sharp declines (by 52, 51, 19, 14, and 13 percent respectively). The GRZ attributes lower maize productivity to water logging and flooding, inadequate access to agricultural inputs and LUSAKA 00000549 002.2 OF 002 extension services, and below normal rainfall in some parts of the country. Increased planting helped offset lower yields: Maize Productivity (in metric tons/hectare, mt/ha) 2007/2008 2006/2007 -------------- -------------- Area Planted 928,224 ha 872,812 ha Area Harvested 551,359 ha 586,503 ha Yield Rate 1.31 mt/ha 1.57 mt/ha ¶5. (U) Yield rates of small and medium size farms (1.13 mt/ha) lag far behind those of large scale farms (4.51 mt/ha),which have access to irrigation and consequently are less affected by inclement weather conditions. Large scale farmers, utilizing higher quantities of fertilizer per hectare and more efficient crop management, managed to harvest 93 percent of their planted areas, compared to 58 percent for small and medium scale farmers. Consequently, large scale farmers who accounted for 18 percent of annual maize production in the 2007/2008 harvest, are expected to contribute to 33 percent of total maize sales during the 2008/2009 marketing season. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Post considers the GRZ production forecasts to be fairly reliable. Its supply estimates, however, may be overly optimistic. According to one assessment, approximately a third of FRA stock has spoiled, due to poor storage conditions and technology. If so, total supply may fall below levels of national demand, and Zambia may have to import the deficit or may seek increased humanitarian assistance, especially in the current climate. ¶7. (U) Although the national figures suggest overall food self-sufficiency, Zambia's incapacity to distribute aid to regions of the country affected by poor weather conditions means that some rural communities will once more face serious food shortages. Subsistence farmers--even in provinces that recorded increased production--continue to suffer from poverty and hunger. These farmers generally do not have access to fertilizer, high-yield seeds, irrigation equipment, and agricultural services and lack storage technology, efficient farming techniques, and market access. ¶8. (SBU) The GRZ's existing agricultural budget consists primarily of providing (usually late) limited quantities of subsidized fertilizer and purchasing large stocks of maize for the FRA at non-market prices. Its export controls distort market prices and discourage agricultural investment. Until the GRZ develops and implements an agricultural policy that goes beyond guaranteed prices, trade barriers, and fertilizer support, which generally is diverted to commercial farmers who need government help least, Zambia will be unlikely to feed its people. Moreover, as long as export controls exist, commercial farmers will be unable to reap the benefits of higher global food prices. MARTINEZ