SADC SUMMIT CONCLUDES WITH HALF-HEARTED RESULTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LUSAKA 000427

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/FO, AF/S, AND AF/PD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2018
TAGS: SADC PREL ZA ZI
SUBJECT: SADC SUMMIT CONCLUDES WITH HALF-HEARTED RESULTS

REF: A. LUSAKA 424


B. LUSAKA 423

C. LUSAKA 421

Classified By: DCM Michael Koplovsky for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. The Southern African Development Community
(SADC) Heads of State Summit concluded with little to show
for the leaders' efforts. South African President Thabo
Mbeki seems to have prevailed by containing efforts to forge
a stronger SADC position on Zimbabwe. The Summit communique
calls for the immediate release of election results, but
fails to address the widespread deceit, intimidation, and
violence following the March 29 national elections in
Zimbabwe. Zimbabwean opposition party members, however, were
pleased with the Summit, which they described as "an
improvement" over Mbeki's mediation efforts. Although the
communique was weak, and lends truth to criticism about South
Africa's dominance within SADC, it marks a step forward in
calling attention to problems in Zimbabwe and points to
Mugabe's growing isolation within the region. End Summary.


2. (SBU) On April 12, SADC convened a Heads of State Summit
to discuss the deadlock following Zimbabwe's national
elections on March 29. The meeting began with strong opening
remarks from Zambian President (and SADC Chair) Mwanawasa
(Ref B),who said that he had called the Summit because of
the failure of Zimbabwean officials to publish the results of
the March 29 presidential election. He recommended a
solution that "reflects the will of the Zimbabwean people."
He appealed to Zimbabwean leaders to put national interests
above all other interests, to "embrace humility," and to turn
over a new leaf in history "in order to make Zimbabwe, the
SADC region, and Africa proud."


3. (C) If Mwanawasa took umbrage from Mugabe's refusal to
speak with him in the days preceding the summit (Ref C),he
was careful to hide his annoyance. Perhaps with a tinge of
irony, however, Mwanawasa said that "it is unfortunate that
owing to circumstances beyond his control, (Mugabe) is unable
to be with us. But he has sent three representatives and I
hope they will be able to enrich our deliberations."
Mwanawasa did not excuse Mugabe for his absence, noting that
Mugabe is "expected to share his perspectives on the matter."



4. (C) Following the opening of the Summit, the SADC leaders
withdrew to a closed session that was scheduled to last two
hours. Unable to reach agreement, the Heads of State
deliberated for over twelve hours, concluding at 5:00 A.M.
Mugabe's representatives refused to interact with the
Zimbabwean opposition members, who were also present by SADC
invitation. Zimbabwean journalists told Emboff that Mbeki
and Mwanawasa had "locked horns" throughout the meetings.
The journalists also said that, according to their sources in
the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC),Mbeki had blocked
Mwanawasa's efforts to achieve greater results. They also
conveyed considerable disagreement over how to describe the
situation in Zimbabwe, with Mwanawasa's camp preferring to
call it a "crisis," and an Mbeki-led faction insisting that
it be referred to as an "impasse." Additionally, the
Zimbabwean journalist had heard from their MDC sources that
Mwanawasa had chided the Zimbabwe delegation "for several
hours" over offensive statements about him in the Zimbabwean
state press.


5. (U) The communique (see Ref A for the full text) stated
that Zimbabwe opposition candidates confirmed that the
elections were held in a free, fair, and peaceful
environment. It urged election authorities to verify and
tabulate results in the presence of candidates and/or their
agents and to expeditiously release the results. It
encouraged all parties to accept the results, when announced.
If run-offs become necessary, the communique urged the
Government of Zimbabwe to ensure a "secure environment."


6. (C) It appears that Mbeki prevailed in containing efforts
to call for stronger SADC action. The communique failed to
capture the vision outlined by Mwanawasa during his opening
remarks. In seeking consensus, it appears as though the SADC
leaders complied with the lowest common denominator. The
communique makes no reference to the widespread deceit,
intimidation, and violence following the March 29 polls in
Zimbabwe. Nor does it single out Mugabe for his presumed
role in blocking the release of the election results.
Although the communique calls for the Zimbabwe Electoral
Commission to comply with the SADC Principles and Guidelines
governing democratic elections, it fails to note that these
protocols have already been breached.

LUSAKA 00000427 002 OF 002




7. (U) Following the release of the communique, Zambian
Foreign Minister Kabinge Pande together with MDC Secretary
General Tendai Biti fielded questions from the press. In his
public statements, Pande said the situation in Zimbabwe "is
not a crisis at all," echoing Mbeki's statement in Harare
after his meeting with Mugabe on April 12 en route to the
Summit. He said Zimbabwe opposition leader Tsvangirai should
be pleased with the outcome "because we've taken care of all
his concerns."


8. (C) Perhaps gratified by the show of support from some
SADC Presidents, MDC leadership, who participated in the
meetings to some extent, expressed satisfaction with the
results. Biti called the Summit "a major improvement" over
Mbeki's attempts at mediation. Biti went further to say that
the communique "exposes the limitations of quiet diplomacy in
comparison to the constructive engagement, which other
countries pursued against the apartheid regime in South
Africa." He praised the SADC leaders for their courage in
holding an emergency summit, which he said was "an
acknowledgement that things were not right in Zimbabwe."


9. (C) Comment. In many respects, it was SADC, not Mugabe,
that was on trial as the world watched to see whether SADC is
capable of acting with impartiality and authority. To some,
SADC's half-hearted, mealymouthed resolution was a
disappointment, and lends truth to criticism that South
Africa continues to wield too much influence within SADC.
According to the MDC, however, "SADC has acquitted itself
fairly well." Biti interpreted the communique "within the
context of African diplomacy" to mean that Mugabe had delayed
the results, abused the law, and perpetrated violence.
Indeed, implicit in the communique--and explicit in many
parts of Mwanawasa's speech--is the acknowledgement that the
electoral process in Zimbabwe has gone awry. Mwanawasa (and
other like-minded Presidents) is to be praised for his
leadership on the issue, and willingness to arbitrate (and
confront Mbeki) throughout the night, despite his failing
health. Notwithstanding the weakness of the communique, the
Summit marks a step forward in SADC's willingness to call
attention to Zimbabwe and it points to Mugabe's growing
isolation within the region.

MARTINEZ