PROSPECTS FOR SATA'S ELECTION PETITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LUSAKA 001094

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2018
TAGS: PGOV ZA
SUBJECT: PROSPECTS FOR SATA'S ELECTION PETITION

REF: LUSAKA 1065

Classified By: Ambassador Donald Booth for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. Soured at losing the presidential race,
Patriotic Front (PF) leader Michael Sata intends to petition
the election results, calling for recounts in as many as 80
constituencies. He has delayed submitting his petition as he
awaits the results of the Electoral Commission's verification
exercise -- a final accounting of the ballot papers. Sata's
alleged assault of Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD)
cadres during the verification process has delayed the
exercise and blemished what has otherwise been a peaceful
process. PF has until November 16 to petition the results,
according to the Zambian Constitution. One of the Zambian
Government's most senior lawyers estimates Sata's chances for
success in changing the result of the election at "nil." End
Summary.

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PF Planning Its Petition
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2. (C) Emboffs met with PF Secretary General Edward Mumbi on
November 6 to discuss his party's intended petition of the
election results. Mumbi said PF is waiting for the Electoral
Commission of Zambia (ECZ) to conclude its verification
exercise, which is a final reconciliation of ballot papers to
ensure that used (cast, spoiled, and rejected) and unused
ballots correspond with the ECZ's ballot issuance. Following
the verification process, Mumbi said the party intends to
file its petition with the High Court, calling for recounts
in as many as 80 of Zambia's 150 constituencies. Although
Mumbi acknowledged that the litigation could be lengthy and
fruitless, describing it as a possible "academic exercise,"
he seemed confident that a recount would expose blatant
electoral fraud in rural areas.


3. (C) Mumbi claimed that electoral officials had rigged the
results in areas where PF polling agents were not present,
including in many district centers that collected and
transmitted constituency results. He showed emboffs his case
notes, which consisted primarily of annotations concerning
either the absence of a polling agent or the PF's inability
to verify the identity of a polling agent. He could not
provide detailed examples of rigging. PF spokesperson Given
Lubinda told Emboff on November 3 that the party had
identified "problematic" constituencies based on where the
party felt it had performed below expectation. Presumably
this dearth of evidence accounts for the party's delay in
submitting its petition and its interest in following the
progress of the ECZ's verification exercise. Although Mumbi
has been loath to admit PF's broad coverage on October 30,
the Foundation for Democratic Process, which conducted a
parallel vote tabulation, estimated that PF polling agents
were present at 85 percent of the polling stations.

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Sata Assaults MMD Cadres
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4. (SBU) Regrettably, the ECZ's results management
inefficiencies (reftel) are carrying over into the
verification process itself. These problems appear to stem
from a lack of training and guidance as to how this process
should be conducted. In the meantime, frequent ineptitude --
of electoral officials and party representatives alike -- is
resulting in some confusion, tension, and additional
accusations of electoral fraud. During Emboffs' meeting with
Mumbi, PF agents attending the verification exercise in Mongu
in western Zambia called Mumbi to tell him that electoral
officials were unable reconcile ballot serial numbers and
were attempting to "chase them out" of the district center
where the verification process was taking place. Mumbi also
received calls from PF representatives in Chongwe (East of
Lusaka) who reported that the seals on all the ballot boxes
at the district center had been broken and the ballots had
been compromised.


5. (SBU) These pressures culminated in a skirmish between
Sata and MMD cadres at a verification exercise in Lusaka on
November 6, when Sata allegedly insulted an MMD official and
then physically assaulted an MMD ward chairperson who had
tried to move a ballot box. According to press reports, a
"free-for-all punch up then erupted." Although the police
are investigating the report, they have not arrested or
questioned Sata for his alleged assault of the MMD cadres.
The ECZ, however, has postponed Lusaka's verification
exercise, a move that PF spokesperson Lubinda hailed as
prudent, saying the task should be carried out when people
are "sober" and "tempers are at their best."


LUSAKA 00001094 002 OF 002


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Petition Prospects Slim
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6. (C) According to the Solicitor General, Dominic Sichinga,
the Zambian Government is preparing to receive PF's petition
and is surprised at PF's delay in submitting it. Sichinga
gauged PF's chances of succeeding in changing the result of
the election at "nil," underscoring that the United Party for
National Development's petition of the 2001 presidential
results lasted many years and bore no results. Sichinga also
emphasized that the ECZ's verification exercise is
independent of PF's petition. He said that the petition will
not encumber President Banda because, according to Zambian
law, a sworn-in president is considered legally and lawfully
elected until proven otherwise. (Note: Some argue that this
may have been the motivation for holding Banda's swearing in
ceremony within three hours of the ECZ's declaration of
election results. End Note.)

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Comment
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7. (C) Sichinga may not be far off in his estimation of PF's
chances for succeeding, particularly as PF does not appear to
have much evidence to substantiate its claims. Its petition
is inherently weak, in that it is based on what polling
agents -- by their absence -- did not witness. Lubinda said
that the recount, what he described as "pure arithmetic,"
will speak for itself. The High Court, however, may be hard
pressed to approve recounts in 80 constituencies without
concrete, compelling evidence. It is encouraging that Sata,
albeit with poor sportsmanship, is challenging the election
through legal means rather than outright violence. On the
other hand, Sata's devotees, who are unfamiliar with the
petition, are unlikely to view a (likely) legal defeat as
anything more than MMD corruption and a miscarriage of
justice.

BOOTH