ZAMBIAN ELECTION: LITTLE GROUNDS FOR PROTEST, BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L LUSAKA 001065 E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2018 TAGS: PGOV KDEM ZA SUBJECT: ZAMBIAN ELECTION: LITTLE GROUNDS FOR PROTEST, BUT THAT WON'T STOP SATA REF: A. LUSAKA 1060 ¶B. LUSAKA 1059 ¶C. LUSAKA 1058 ¶D. LUSAKA 1057 ¶E. LUSAKA 1028 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Ambassador Donald E. Booth for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The Patriotic Front (PF) is planning to file a petition calling for a partial recount based on PF estimates of how it should have performed in certain areas and complains vaguely of other malfeasance for which it has little to no proof. While the October 30 presidential by-election was remarkable for its organization and a strong performance by the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ), polling was not without issues and controversies. U.S. Embassy election monitoring teams noted some minor discrepancies that point to a need for ECZ attention before the next elections in 2011. -------------- PF CALLING FOR RECOUNT -------------- ¶2. (C) Patriotic Front (PF) spokesman and Member of Parliament Given Lubinda, expressed to PolOff November 3 dissatisfaction with the ECZ's conduct of the poll and the subsequent counting. He said PF is reviewing the results November 3 and is preparing a petition, which it intends to submit to the High Court on November 4 or 5, calling for a recount in as many as 39 constituencies where PF had not performed as well as anticipated and/or where the ECZ's results did not correspond with the tallies of their polling agents. ¶3. (C) Although Lubinda also objected to the ECZ's delays in releasing results, the exclusion of the public at polling stations during counting, and the MMD's alleged purchase of voter cards, he said PF does not intend to raise these issues in the court appeal. He explained that PF had learned from its experiences in 2006, when the High Court dismissed its appeals related to voter card buying and bribery because of insufficient evidence and counterclaims that PF was engaged in similar practices. By disputing the actual results, Lubinda said it becomes "a case of mere arithmetic, and difficult for the court to dismiss." ¶4. (C) Lubinda said PF did not have sufficient resources to deploy party agents to each of Zambia's 6,456 polling stations, and that there were many "blind spots" in the country where the party had relied entirely on non-partisan independent election monitors. He implied that PF had not completed a parallel vote count to challenge the ECZ's final tallies. Regarding the information PF had allegedly received from an ECZ insider outlining MMD plans to rig the election in collusion with the ECZ (reftel E),Lubinda described the information as a "decoy" designed to distract PF from other vulnerable areas. -------------- -------------- FEW PROBLEMS OBSERVED AT POLLS BY MISSION OBSERVER TEAMS... -------------- -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The Embassy's 17 observer teams--which visited over 200 polling stations on election day--gave the Electoral Commission high marks for the overall conduct of the election. Only a few minor discrepancies were recorded: --Election officials turned away several voters who had their identification materials but were not on the voter roll, advising them to go to the constituency center. --Some election officials incorrectly inked the hands of voters, applying marks to the index fingers or left thumbs instead of the right thumbs of voters. --Replacement voter cards were not available at a few stations for voters who had requested them, despite ECZ assurances they would be there (PF claims this was disproportionately a problem in PF strongholds). --At some polling stations, Embassy reps observed polling officials pre-stamping ballots rather than stamping each ballot separately and in the presence of the prospective voter, as dictated by election guidelines. (Note: Each ballot needed to be stamped by an ECZ official on the back indicating it had been given to a valid voter. There also were instances observed of ballots having been marked on the front "voting side." End note.) --Some polling stations opened after 6:30 A.M., including one outside Chipata that did not open until 8:20 due to the late arrival of election materials. The presiding officer there had to bicycle eight kilometers to obtain the ballot papers. (Note: The ECZ publicly announced on November 2 that four polling places in Western Province were allowed to vote on Friday and Saturday after the vehicles delivering their ballot papers had broken down. End note.) ¶6. (U) These discrepancies, however, were the exception, not the rule. The vast majority of presiding officers conducted their polling stations in a highly professional manner and with no visible problems. Most stations opened on time, and presiding officers handled the ballot boxes in a transparent manner. Many said they and their polling assistants had spent the previous night on the floor of the polling station with their ballot materials to ensure they and the materials were there on time. ECZ officials had to take an exam to qualify to work as election officers. Polling agents from at least two parties were present at all but a handful of the stations observed by Embassy teams, and approximately 95 percent also had civilian observers, providing a valuable check on election officials. None of the party agents or domestic monitors expressed any concerns to Embassy observers. -------------- ...BUT COUNTING, COLLATING A WEAK POINT -------------- ¶7. (U) If there was any weak point in the electoral process, it was in the counting of ballots at the polling stations and in the collating and reporting at constituency centers, in large part due to resource constraints. At the polling stations, counting commenced following the poll's 6:00 p.m. closing, after party agents, observers, and ECZ representatives had already officiated for more than 12 hours and were clearly fatigued. Counting was done in poor light, often by lamp or candle light. Some officers also appeared to have trouble counting, prompting the need for recounts. Furthermore, while counting was supposed to have been done in a secure room with only accredited agents and officers present, Emboffs observed several cases where unaccredited members of the public moved in and out of the stations, or were pressed up against open windows to overhear the proceedings. In addition, there was a mulititude of forms and sealed envelopes to be recorded, filed, and sealed, which often took longer than the actual counting and served to confuse presiding officers and invite mistakes. There are no indications that these problems opened the door for ballot stuffing or other wide-scale cheating, but they did add an extensive amount of time to the process--sometimes several hours to count just a few hundred votes. Fatigue-induced counting errors cannot be ruled out. ¶8. (U) Constituency collation centers had similar shortcomings. At one collation center, Emboffs found the delivery of ballot boxes and results sheets to be a chaotic process that kept up to three dozen people busy in the room at the same time. Although Emboffs observed no problems, the sheer amount of people and paper in the room made it appear quite possible for results sheets to be inadvertently discarded or otherwise disappear. Fatigue was an even greater problem for those at the collation centers-- some officers worked through the night, as the final polling place results did not arrive until 10:00 a.m. on Friday morning. Collation center election officers lastly had to contend with a large amount of tally sheets that were incorrectly prepared by the polling place presiding officers. ¶9. (SBU) In our opinion, these shortcomings did not appear to affect the election outcome. However, the closeness of the poll--Banda having won by just 35,000 votes--does show the need for improvement by the ECZ before the 2011 poll, as small, unintentional counting errors have the potential to prove crucial in a tight race. Furthermore, increased transportation resources (for picking up polling station results) and simplified reconciliation procedures, could make the process more efficient, which would greatly reduce the amount of suspicion in a closely contested race. -------------- OBSERVERS LARGELY WELCOMED -------------- ¶10. (U) Observer teams reported few problems in gaining access to polling stations and collation centers, as most presiding officers appeared aware that international observers might make an appearance. Most were very courteous, even enthusiastic, allowing Emboffs to watch the process, talk to party agents and other observers, and even take photographs. The sole incident occurred at a polling station in Eastern Province, where Emboffs had gone to observe counting after close. Election officials were very hostile and conducted a search of the team's vehicle before allowing it to park at the school where polling was conducted. The Embassy team learned later that this hostility was due to a rumor that the USG was supporting Michael Sata and that observers might try to smuggle in ballots marked for Sata. BOOTH