ELECTION RESULTS FLOW IN; SATA WITH EARLY LEAD BUT

UNCLAS LUSAKA 001057 E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV ZA SUBJECT: ELECTION RESULTS FLOW IN; SATA WITH EARLY LEAD BUT A LONG WAY TO GO REF: A. LUSAKA 1054 ¶B. LUSAKA 1053 ¶C. LUSAKA 1052 ¶D. LUSAKA 1051 AND PREVIOUS ¶1. With a little under a third of Zambia's 150 constituencies reporting, opposition Patriotic Front candidate Michael Sata has the lead with over 360,000 votes to ruling Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) candidate Rupiah Banda's 241,000. The results thus far are not unexpected and mimic the pattern of the 2006 election, in which PF strongholds such as urban areas and Copperbelt province are announced early on and give Sata supporters a boost of hope. Whether or not this hope is justified remains to be seen, as most of the rural constituencies that make up the MMD's backbone of support have yet to report results. ¶2. The Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) has made two announcements of interim results so far, with another planned for 4:00 pm local time today. Forty-one of the 150 total constituencies have reported in, and total results so far are as follows: Michael Sata (PF): 361,263; Rupiah Banda (MMD): 240,941; Hakainde Hichilema (United Party for National Development -UPND): 98,274; and Godfrey Miyanda (Heritage Party - HP): 4,614. As expected, Sata is scoring huge wins over Banda in urban areas and in the Copperbelt, Hichilema is winning convincingly in his home Southern Province, and Banda is dominating in his Eastern Province base. ¶3. The pattern of results so far mimics that of 2006, when the PF declared a premature victory based on strong showings in urban areas and the Copperbelt. Sata's margin of victory over MMD in Lusaka is lower than in 2006, but is significantly higher in Copperbelt. Banda is slowly picking up some ground in Eastern Province with only a few constituencies reporting. If Banda picks up rural constituencies as he is expected to, Sata's lead may not have much staying power. The next round of results should provide more clarity on the direction of rural voting. ¶4. PF leadership continues to talk of vote rigging, but no concrete details have been provided beyond the problems with replacement voter registration cards, mainly in the Copperbelt. The results that are being announced by ECZ so far are consistent with those reported by Embassy observer teams and by the media. BOOTH