UNCLAS LUSAKA 001057


E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ZA
SUBJECT: ELECTION RESULTS FLOW IN; SATA WITH EARLY LEAD BUT
A LONG WAY TO GO

REF: A. LUSAKA 1054

B. LUSAKA 1053

C. LUSAKA 1052

D. LUSAKA 1051 AND PREVIOUS



1. With a little under a third of Zambia's 150
constituencies reporting, opposition Patriotic Front
candidate Michael Sata has the lead with over 360,000 votes
to ruling Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) candidate
Rupiah Banda's 241,000. The results thus far are not
unexpected and mimic the pattern of the 2006 election, in
which PF strongholds such as urban areas and Copperbelt
province are announced early on and give Sata supporters a
boost of hope. Whether or not this hope is justified remains
to be seen, as most of the rural constituencies that make up
the MMD's backbone of support have yet to report results.


2. The Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) has made two
announcements of interim results so far, with another planned
for 4:00 pm local time today. Forty-one of the 150 total
constituencies have reported in, and total results so far are
as follows: Michael Sata (PF): 361,263; Rupiah Banda (MMD):
240,941; Hakainde Hichilema (United Party for National
Development -UPND): 98,274; and Godfrey Miyanda (Heritage
Party - HP): 4,614. As expected, Sata is scoring huge wins
over Banda in urban areas and in the Copperbelt, Hichilema is
winning convincingly in his home Southern Province, and Banda
is dominating in his Eastern Province base.


3. The pattern of results so far mimics that of 2006, when
the PF declared a premature victory based on strong showings
in urban areas and the Copperbelt. Sata's margin of victory
over MMD in Lusaka is lower than in 2006, but is
significantly higher in Copperbelt. Banda is slowly picking
up some ground in Eastern Province with only a few
constituencies reporting. If Banda picks up rural
constituencies as he is expected to, Sata's lead may not have
much staying power. The next round of results should provide
more clarity on the direction of rural voting.


4. PF leadership continues to talk of vote rigging, but no
concrete details have been provided beyond the problems with
replacement voter registration cards, mainly in the
Copperbelt. The results that are being announced by ECZ so
far are consistent with those reported by Embassy observer
teams and by the media.


BOOTH