EMBASSY LUSAKA ELECTION OBSERVATION PLAN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LUSAKA 001030 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM ZA SUBJECT: EMBASSY LUSAKA ELECTION OBSERVATION PLAN ¶1. (SBU) Summary and Comment. A recent poll indicates the October 30 presidential race could produce extremely tight results between Acting President Rupiah Banda and Patriotic Front leader Michael Sata. Had the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) fulfilled its legal requirement to conduct continuous voter registration, the swell of younger voters easily could have turned the tide in favor of the opposition candidates; nevertheless Banda's incumbent advantage is being whittled away by his lack of charisma. Polling day is likely to be peaceful, orderly and free from any systematic intimidation or coercion, but the ECZ has made few changes to avoid the results management problems that plagued the 2006 general elections and engendered so much distrust. The Embassy will deploy 31 accredited observers to six of Zambia's nine provinces to monitor the conduct of election officials and party representatives and to conduct parallel vote counts in some constituencies. EU missions will field another 160 or so observers with whom we will be sharing findings, but Embassy Lusaka does not plan to issue a statement on the freedom and fairness of the election given our limited scope. End Summary. Deployment Plan -------------- ¶2. (U) Embassy Lusaka will deploy 31 accredited election observers across six of Zambia's nine provinces between October 27 and October ¶31. In addition to observing the conduct at polling stations, Embassy teams will monitor ballot tabulation at the polling station, constituency centers, and district headquarters. Post will feed these observations into its reporting and will share its data with other diplomatic observers. Post intends to conduct a parallel vote tabulation in as many as five constituencies by coordinating with polling agents and manually tabulating the posted results within constituency polling centers to verify that these are consistent with ECZ's announcements. ¶3. (U) Other international observers include a strong contingent from the European Union. Although the European Commission (EC) could not deploy a full EC observation mission in the time given, it has sent a handful of election experts to train and organize about 160 local diplomats from EU missions in Lusaka. Other institutions planning informal observation missions include Japan (five observers),Canada (three observers),the Electoral Institute of Southern Africa (20 observers),the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (16 to 18 observers),and the Southern African Development Community (100 observers). The Zambian Government invited a team from the African Union, but there are no reports of an AU team. In addition, the National Democratic Institute is conducting a parallel voter tabulation program and conducting training for polling agents, funded by the UK and Denmark. Potential Pitfalls -------------- ¶4. (SBU) A recent Steadman Group Survey indicates that, despite Acting President Banda having the incumbent's advantage, the race between Sata and him could be extremely close (septel). Embassy observer teams will be on the lookout for several potential pitfalls, which could lead to election irregularities or create tension among the parties and/or voters: ¶5. (SBU) Disenfranchised Voters: In the absence of legally mandated continuous registration, Zambians who turned 18 after December 2005 (when the last voter registration was conducted) will be disenfranchised. A visiting election observer from the EU estimated the number disenfranchised youths to be between 300,000 and 400,000. Considering that 19-20 year olds constitute about 6.5 percent of the population, we believe that number actually could be as high as 650-750,000. In addition, voters who are unable to return to the constituency where they were registered in December 2005 will be barred from voting. Assuming an urbanization rate of approximately three percent per year, this could translate to more than 200,000 voters. Considering that urbanites and youth form the backbone of PF, these disenfranchised voters could prove decisive in a close race. ¶6. (SBU) Vote Tabulation: In 2006, Zambia's 6,456 polling stations were peaceful and orderly, but results management was questionable. With inadequate training, presiding officers and other electoral staff in most cases failed to reconcile ballots properly. There was also inadequate accountability for the ballots once they were consolidated in the constituencies. Although the ECZ has simplified the polling station reconciliation process, it has made few other changes since 2006 to avoid the problems that tainted the electoral process. Although polling station results will be posted outside polling stations, the ECZ does not intend to release these figures or publish them on its website. An international election observer trainer told poloff that the ECZ had refused to publish the information and could provide no justification for refusing. "The political will is not there," the election expert opined. ¶7. (SBU) In order to verify constituency figures, political parties will be compelled to conduct parallel vote counts by coordinating LUSAKA 00001030 002 OF 002 with their polling agents at each individual polling station. This will be difficult to do in some instances, given lack of cell phone coverage and inadequate party infrastructure/organization. The ECZ's lack of transparency will undoubtedly fuel charges by the unsuccessful candidates that ballot figures were manipulated. Comment -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Although there were isolated reports of electoral malfeasance in 2006 (e.g., party affiliates attempting to buy voter cards),post does not expect any systematic form of voter intimidation or coercion this year. The primary problems may lie in small-time political corruption (influencing voters by gift-giving), defamation, biased media reporting, abuse of GRZ resources, disenfranchisement, and perhaps results management/accountability. The election credibility and peace will depend perhaps entirely on the ECZ's ability to appear transparent, fair, and professional and to satisfy voters that the reported results reflect a true tabulation of what transpired at 9,314 polling streams across the country on election day. Embassy Lusaka observer teams will be on the lookout for issues that may detract from the credibility of the elections but the Embassy does not plan to issue a public statement about whether the elections are free and fair, given the limited scope of our 16 teams. BOOTH