SAMAKUVA DISCUSSES UNITA'S DEFEAT AND NEXT STEPS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LUANDA 000734

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL AO
SUBJECT: SAMAKUVA DISCUSSES UNITA'S DEFEAT AND NEXT STEPS

Classified By: AMB DAN MOZENA FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Summary: During a September 25 call on the
Ambassador, UNITA President Isaias Samakuva accepted the
results of Angola's September 5 parliamentary elections,
despite the "serious irregularities" that marred them, for
the "good of the country." The new parliament's first order
of business, he thought, would be to ratify a draft
constitution, using a draft originally negotiated between
UNITA and the ruling MPLA. Samakuva conceded that his party
was at least partially responsible for its defeat, but said
that UNITA might not participate in presidential elections
next year without a more even political playing field.
Despite his party,s disastrous showing at the polls,
Samakuva was reconfirmed as UNITA,s leader the day following
his meeting with Ambassador. End Summary

ELECTION IRREGULARITIES, INTERNAL WEAKNESSES
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2. (C) UNITA President Isaias Samakuva, accompanied by Party
Vice-President Ernesto Mulato and key advisor Jardo Muakelia
called on the Ambassador September 25; it was Samakuva's
first meeting with the Ambassador since UNITA's crushing
defeat in the September 5-6 legislative elections. Samakuva
lamented the "serious irregularities" of election day and
recited a litany of concerns about the conduct of the
elections, particularly regarding failure to accredit some
UNITA poll watchers and alleged government interference with
the process. Despite an assertion that "the elections do not
reflect the will of the people." however, Samakuva was not
willing to speculate on how these irregularities might have
impacted the final vote.


3. (C) When pressed by the Ambassador on whether his party
had learned any lessons from its performance in the
legislative elections, Samakuva said UNITA "has to be
sufficiently honest to recognize mistakes and correct them,"
adding "we can't only blame others." He conceded that the
party has an image problem and expressed the hope that,
moving forward, memories of the war and its division would
fade, and the electorate would be more accepting of UNITA.

ACCEPTANCE, &FOR THE GOOD OF THE COUNTRY8
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4. (C) Despite concerns, UNITA accepted the results of the
elections. Samakuva told the Ambassador the party's game
plan is to document "for the sake of history" the problems of
the elections, adding (twice) that his party "does not want
to make a fuss" about the irregularities. He said he had
accepted the election results, despite all known
irregularities, "for the good of the country" and to defuse
the tensions that started to build as the one-sided elections
results were announced. Samakuva stated that UNITA had lost
a badly-organized election, but had "won the right to
participate in other, better organized elections, on a
regular basis and a pre-determined timeline." (Note: Despite
the fact that the last National Assembly sat for 16 years,
the Angolan Constitution calls for legislative elections
every four years. President dos Santos repeatedly affirmed
his commitment to regular legislative elections during the
campaign. End Note.)

A NEW CONSTITUTION
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5. (C) Assessing the new National Assembly that will emerge
from the elections, Samakuva said he was hopeful the ruling
MPLA would respect the opposition and engage it in the
legislative process. He opined that the MPLA - despite a
"one-party culture" - would want to be on good behavior to
burnish its democratic credentials with the international
community. Samakuva gave the MPLA credit for saying good
things about working with the opposition in parliament, and
expressed his hope that the ruling party would allow other
voices to be heard.


6. (C) Samakuva said the Assembly's main order of business
would be to enact a new constitution. He opined that the
MPLA would propose the draft constitution that the MPLA and
UNITA had largely agreed upon before the negotiations broke
down in 2006, over differences regarding the extent of
presidential powers and symbolic but emotive issues like the
design of Angola's flag and the words of the national anthem.
Samakuva opined that the MPLA would now push through a
constitution that reflected the MPLA's position on these
issues.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: UNITA SITTING OUT A ROUND?
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7. (C) Looking ahead to the 2009 presidential elections,

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Samakuva declared that he "was not sure that it will be
worthwhile to participate" if the environment was not better.
He lamented the uneven playing field that gives the ruling
party unequal assess to the media and to resources and said
the party faces a long-term political struggle to make the
playing field more level. When asked whether his party could
survive a boycott of the presidential elections, Samakuva
responded that there was no point in participating in an
unequal contest and pointed out that UNITA's participation in
and acceptance of a flawed process would give the ruling
party a mantle of undeserved legitimacy. He said he intends
to raise these concerns about the playing field with civil
society and in the National Assembly to encourage public
debate on the issue, one which he conceded would "take years
to address."

SAMAKUVA LIVES TO FIGHT ANOTHER DAY
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8. (C) In a speech to the Permanent Committee prior to his
meeting with the Ambassador, Samakuva had accepted
responsibility for his party's defeat and said he would
follow the will of the party if asked to resign. In a
session the day after Samakuva's meeting with the Ambassador,
the Committee unanimously endorsed Samakuva as leader of the
party and, presumably, UNITA's candidate for the 2009
presidential elections, should the party choose to
participate.


9. (C) COMMENT: In the wake of its crushing defeat at the
polls, UNITA faces a daunting task in trying to present
itself as an effective voice for Angola's weakened opposition
and a credible alternative to the MPLA. The ruling party
certainly has an enormous advantage in terms of control of
the media and access to vast resources, but UNITA makes a bad
situation worse by its inability to successfully project a
new, positive image or to present meaningful policy
alternatives that resonate with voters. Samakuva probably
has it right in suggesting that it will take years before
UNITA can mount an effective challenge, and in that context
it makes sense that the party would buy itself some time to
reconnect with voters, rebuild a stronger constituency and
conserve its depleted resources by sitting out Presidential
elections. END COMMENT
MOZENA