FINAL RESULTS OF ANGOLA'S LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LUANDA 000732 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM AO SUBJECT: FINAL RESULTS OF ANGOLA'S LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS CONFIRM MPLA LANDSLIDE REF: LUANDA 0723 ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: The ruling MPLA's sweeping victory of 81.6 percent of the voters in the September 5-6 legislative elections was finalized with the announcement of the final results by the National Electoral Commission. The MPLA now holds 191 out of 220 seat in Parliament; UNITA's total fell to 16; PRS increased to 8; FNLA fell to 3; and the surprise newcomer Nova Democracia won two seats. UNITA's appeal of the Luanda results was rejected by the Constitution Court on September 15, clearing the path for the release of the final tally. END SUMMARY. The Big Winner: MPLA -------------- ¶2. (U) In the final tally, the ruling MPLA received 81.6 percent of the votes vast, earning it 191 of 220 seats in Parliament. Turnout was high; 7.2 million votes were cast, representing 87.4 percent of registered voters. The MPLA absolutely dominated the provincial circuit, winning 84 out of 90 available provincial seats in addition to 107 out of 130 national seats. Its victory included sweeping all 5 provincial seats in provinces formerly seen as UNITA's traditional base, including Huambo, Kuando Kubango, Benguela, and Moxico. The MPLA's victory gives it total control of not only the National Assembly, but in forming Angola's first post-war government and drafting a new constitution. The Biggest Loser: UNITA -------------- ¶3. (SBU) In a humbling loss, UNITA won only 10.5 percent of the vote, giving it 16 seats in comparison to the 70 seats it held in the last Assembly by 34 percent of the vote in the 1992 elections. UNITA won only 2 provincial seats, one in Bie and the other in Cabinda. The party had appealed the vote tally in Luanda (reftel),but the Constitutional Court rejected their petition on September 15 due to lack of evidence; the appeal was hamstrung by the failure of party election monitors to note irregularities in the polling stations on the official station record as they occurred, as required by law. The party now faces a myriad of challenges in defining its new, much-reduced profile - not the least of which is determining how best to tighten its belt due to the reduction in government subsidies that accompanies its loss of seats. NOTE: The GRA subsidizes parties based on the number of seats held in Parliament; UNITA was estimated to have received 8 million USD per year when it held 70 seats. END NOTE The Little Winner: PRS -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Other than the MPLA, PRS is the only party with seats in the previous parliament to have bettered its standings. The party took 3.2 percent of the vote and increased its seats in Parliament from 6 to 8 seats. The PRS not only showed that has held on to its old electorate by maintaining its two provincial seats in Lunda Sul and one in Lunda Norte, but also showed that it managed to increased its support nationwide by winning an additional 2 seats from the national circle. The Slow Fade: FNLA -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Once the most powerful political force in Angola, the FNLA continues to fade from political prominence. The party won 1.1 percent of the vote and 3 total seats, one from their traditional base in Zaire province and the other two from the national circuit. This represents a lost of two seats for a party generally seen as aging and ineffective. The Cinderella Story: Nova Democracia -------------- ¶6. (SBU) One big surprise in these elections was the emergence of Nova Democracia (ND),which won 1.2 percent of the vote and 2 seats from the national circle. Theories abound as to how a fairly new, low-profile party that did very little visible campaigning fared better than so many other established political voices. One theory states the party, which was positioned directly above the MPLA on the ballot, received an "MPLA Bounce" when a largely illiterate electorate simply marked the wrong box. Another theory posits that voters, in looking at a ballot full of non-choices, shrugged and simply picked a name that sounded good - "New Democracy." A more analytical notion is that the party may have, in fact, succeeded in drawing in young voters through grassroots campaigning. One party founder, Jose LUANDA 00000732 002 OF 002 Fula, is the former leader of FNLA's youth wing, and some analysts speculate that the root of the FNLA's poor performance lies in the defection of many youthful supporters when Fula left to form ND. Looking for Work: The Fate of the Eight -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Of the other nine parties contesting the election, only PDP-ANA, with 0.51 percent of the vote, will survive to fight another day. According to electoral law, the eight parties that did not achieve 0.5 percent of the vote will now be proscribed. ¶8. (SBU) COMMENT: As the election dust finally settles, Angola finds itself under even stronger one-party domination, albeit one chosen by the people. Yet to be seen is how and whether meaningful democracy can take root in such a circumstance. END COMMENT MOZENA