MPLA SUSTAINS COMMANDING LEAD IN VOTE TALLY AS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LUANDA 000704 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM AO SUBJECT: MPLA SUSTAINS COMMANDING LEAD IN VOTE TALLY AS MOST OPPOSITION PARTIES CONCEDE REF: LUANDA 00702 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The ruling MPLA has maintained its overwhelming lead as vote counting continues, with over 81 percent of the vote as counting nears completion. Eleven of the 13 opposition parties and coalitions have conceded defeat. International observation missions have universally praised the wide voter turnout and peaceful nature of the elections, but remain divided on the degree to which these elections can be considered as credible and transparent. The opposition parties, rapid acceptance of their defeat, however, lends credibility to the results. END SUMMARY ¶2. (SBU) As the counting of tendered ("special") and contested ballots continues, the MPLA has solidified its overwhelming victory at the polls, one which significantly changes the make-up of the incoming parliament. Under current trends, the Embassy projects the MPLA will win at least 79 of a possible 90 provincial seats and 110 of 130 national seats, for a total of about 190 of 220 seats in Parliament. This is a large increase from the 129 seats the party won in the 1992 elections. UNITA is poised to win between 3 to 6 provincial seats and about 14 national seats; leaving it with a best case result of 20 seats, compared to the 70 seats it won in ¶1992. PRS is likely to add one seat to the 6 they won in 1992, while the FNLA will hold on to only 2 of its 5 seats. A new coalition of smaller parties called Novo Democracia ("New Democracy", or ND),performed well, and is likely to win one national seat. Of the remaining contestants in the race, only the PDP-ANA has the possibility of winning one seat. ¶3. (SBU) Most opposition parties have accepted their clear defeat at the polls. Some simply recognized the outcome; others congratulated the MPLA. Some parties, such as the PRS, used their statement to the press to urge the MPLA to govern in the interests of the people. Several parties, including PDP-ANA, FpD, PAJOCA and PRD, apologized to their supporters for their parties' poor showing at the polls. PRD President Luis dos Passos tendered his resignation in recognition of his party's poor performance. ¶4. (SBU) The Embassy's statement on the election will be reported septel. Other international observation missions unanimously expressed praise for the peaceful nature of the elections. Their statements offered suggested areas for improvement in the next electoral cycle: EU -- "Angola's first elections in 16 years were conducted in a calm and peaceful atmosphere nationwide." -- Elections are a "crucial step forwards democracy despite organizational weakness." -- Voters "turned out in large numbers and voted freely." -- Certain procedures, such as the handling of the voters list, were "inconsistently applied." SADC -- Congratulated the people of Angola for "peaceful, free, transparent, and credible elections which reflect the will of the people." -- In a four-page report that was generally positive, noted problems with impartial voter education, delays in publishing voter rolls, the "overwhelming advantage" of the ruling party on the state-controlled media, and the delays in opening the polls "as prescribed by law." AU -- The voting process was "peaceful and transparent." -- Called the non-accreditation of large numbers of civil-society observes, absence of voter rolls in polling station, failure to check voters against the voter register, late opening of polling stations, and late delivery of key materials "areas that need to be addressed." Pan-African Parliament -- "The vote counting was transparent" -- Recommend changes to the composition of the National Electoral Commission. -- Suggested the ruling party limit the influence of the LUANDA 00000704 002 OF 002 power of the incumbency. The Community of Portuguese-Language Countries (CPLP) -- the elections were "free and transparent." Government of Portugal -- recognized the logistical difficulties -- "these elections are considered to have allowed the free expression of the will of the Angolan people." ¶5. (SBU) COMMENT: Both international observers and opposition parties have widely commented on logistical and other flaws in the conduct of these elections; irregularities that raise legitimate concerns about the conduct of the election. The opposition's ready acceptance of their defeat, combined with observer's conclusions that the election, despite its flaws, is credible, supports the legitimacy of the election results. END COMMENT MOZENA