"THE ANGOLAN" ELECTORAL NEWS BULLETIN, VOL VII

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LUANDA 000687 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/08/2018 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL AO SUBJECT: "THE ANGOLAN" ELECTORAL NEWS BULLETIN, VOL VII REF: LUANDA 0666 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: AMB DAN MOZENA FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (U) In This Issue: - UNITA Accuses MPLA of Political Violence and Intimidation - Dos Santos Notes MPLA's Past Failures - An Odd Twist to the MPLA Campaign - Small Parties Run Out of Steam - Walking the tightrope... UNITA Accuses MPLA of Political Violence -------------- ¶2. (SBU) According to UNITA, the MPLA has stepped up its efforts to harass, threaten, and intimidate UNITA supporters. In an August 29 teleconference with international reporters, UNITA Spokesman Adalberto Costa Jr. said MPLA supporters have killed four UNITA supporters in the past week; one each in Bie, Huambo, Luanda, and Kuando Kubango. He added that nineteen UNITA members were injured in a clash with MPLA supporters in Benguela province following a UNITA rally. For its part, the MPLA calls the incidents "accidents" or blames them on drunken arguments that flaired out of control, rather than an organized campaign of violence. ¶3. (C) Though Bloomberg News picked up the story, a Reuters reporter told the Embassy that his and other news agencies had decided not to report the story, as they believed it lacked credibility. In UNITA's teleconference, Costa admitted there were drunk people acting irresponsibly at the rallies, and there was no way to prove that they were MPLA-initiated attacks. ¶4. (C) On August 25, Costa told the Embassy UNITA believes the MPLA is increasingly using the JMPLA, the party's youth wing, and SINFO (Information Services, an internal intelligence agency),to provoke and intimidate UNITA supporters. He said the supporter killed in Bie on August 23 was run down and killed by a car closely tailing a parade in honor of a visit by UNITA President Isaias Samakuva; the car was reportedly driven by a SINFO agent. He also noted that the killings have not been reported in State media outlets. UNITA believes the political violence is a reflection of the MPLA's realization that its support is lower than anticipated; if it were fully confident of a landslide victory, it would not need to resort to such tactics. Dos Santos Notes MPLA's Past Failures -------------- ¶5. (SBU) In a move that surprised many long-time dos Santos watchers, the President acknowledged during recent visits to several provinces (septel) that the contrast between Angola's low social indicators and massive oil and diamond revenue is an easy target for the opposition. In Lunda Norte he urged voters to support a party (his) which "already has experience, has already erred and knows how it erred and is correcting those errors." In Benguela he joked that voters should distinguish between "who has lied MORE, who has failed MORE." These comments indicate the MPLA is well aware that they cannot ignore voter frustration. An Odd Twist to the MPLA Campaign -------------- ¶6. (C) During August 22 remarks to provincial officials in Saurimo, capital of diamond-rich Lunda Sul, President dos Santos lamented that (undefined) "powers" seek to take Africa's natural resources at low prices so Africa remains dependent forever. He added that Africans sometimes cannot perceive this reality because "other powers" and more developed countries control the "means of social and cultural communications." Changing tack, he regretted that some African leaders (undefined) have turned their backs on their people and are not able to lead their countries. Dos Santos then discussed intentional campaigns against African leaders, many of whom are taken to international courts "under the pretext of violating this or that, when such violations do not occur only in Africa." He finished by lamenting that Africans are "under the negative influence of the powerful means of social communications that seek to distance the masses from their leaders." The speech was reported matter-of-factly by all state media, but otherwise has resonated little and has not introduced new themes into the ongoing electoral campaign. LUANDA 00000687 002 OF 002 ¶7. (C) COMMENT: Seemingly old habits die hard; both the concepts and language of the speech harken back to the siege mentality of Angola's socialist era. It is encouraging, however, that these themes have fallen flat, with neither the MPLA nor any of the opposition parties engaging on them following the President's remarks. END COMMENT Small Parties Run Out of Steam -------------- ¶8. (SBU) What little propaganda steam opposition parties had pumped up is rapidly ebbing as they run out of materials and finances to supply provincial campaigns. With the exception of UNITA, all the other opposition parties are having serious logistical problems and most cannot mount serious campaigns outside of Luanda. ¶9. (C) PAJOCA president Alexandre Andre told the Embassy he plans to concentrate what little capacity the party has left in Luanda, in the hope of getting more bang for the buck. He said the party had overestimated how far their 1.2 million USD in government-provided campaign financing would go in Angola, where an entire province's allocation of party t-shirts and other propaganda materials can easily be swiped up in one rally by uncommitted voters simply needing a shirt on their back. Andre believes that focusing campaigns on Luanda's frustrated voters will likely be the saving grace for many small opposition parties that have seen their chances in the other provinces thin out as campaigns gobble up limited available resources. Walking the tightrope... -------------- ¶10. (C) Well before the August 5 start of the official campaign period, senior leaders of both the MPLA and UNITA noted to the Ambassador their respective observations that the U.S. Embassy was favoring the other side. MPLA stalwart Paulo Jorge had told the Ambassador that he had heard "rumors" in the provinces that the Embassy was supporting its long time friend UNITA. Meanwhile, UNITA leader Isaias Samakuva had told the Ambassador that he and others in the opposition had heard that the Embassy was supporting the MPLA in the name of "continuity." Interestingly, neither side has repeated these allegations in the past month, which the Embassy takes as a good sign that we've kept our balance on the political tightrope. MOZENA