GRA HOPES FOR NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT IN PRETORIA TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L LUANDA 000593 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2018 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ZI AO SUBJECT: GRA HOPES FOR NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT IN PRETORIA TO ZIM CRISIS REF: LUANDA 0518 Classified By: AMB DAN MOZENA FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: In an August 4th meeting with Ambassador Mozena, Angolan Foreign Minister Joao Miranda expressed hope that the ongoing negotiations between Zimbabwe's ruling ZANU-PF and opposition MDC parties would result in a power-sharing agreement. Absent such an agreement, Zimbabwe could experience a military coup, which would then destabilize the region. Miranda detailed the GRA's continuing efforts to calm the security forces and resolve the crisis through open dialogue and "quiet diplomacy" with GOZ and ZANU-PF senior leaders. END SUMMARY Stability Trumps All -------------- ¶2. (C) Miranda expressed confidence that a negotiated settlement will emerge from the negotiations now underway in Pretoria, stating "there is no other way" forward. Miranda agreed with the Ambassador that any transitional government must reflect the will of the Zimbabwean people and must be committed to reform. Referring to Zimbabwe's near-complete economic collapse, he said "a change of government alone will not restart the economy," and that any changes in the leadership of the security services must only be implemented gradually to maintain stability. ¶3. (C) Miranda said the largest threat to the current negotiations comes from Zimbabwe's increasingly nervous military. He said the EU's targeted sanctions on many active and former military leaders further isolates regime power brokers, and may push them to more extreme actions to keep power. He believes the international community needs to "work smart" to calm the fears of the security services, create a constructive environment for dialogue, and avoid brinksmanship that could precipitate a coup. NOTE: Miranda has repeatedly called for an end to the sanctions in his media interviews. END NOTE Engaging in Constructive Dialogue -------------- ¶4. (C) Miranda noted that the Zim crisis has the potential to spread and destabilize the entire region. This obligates the GRA to help. While the GRA is not directly involved in the ongoing negotiations in Pretoria, GRA representatives serve on the SADC technical team supporting the negotiations. Miranda said the immediate crisis started when ZANU-PF refused to even consider that it might lose the March 29 election. Then, when it did, Miranda said, party militants "lost their heads." Miranda said the GRA "had the courage" to hold private, yet blunt, conversations with GOZ and ZANU-PF leaders, advising them to be objective about their ability to govern effectively in the current environment. Miranda believes that the GRA's own long history of civil strife gives it credibility with the GOZ, and said he often uses Angola's painful history to point out the futility of civil war to GOZ officials. ¶5. (C) This open dialogue is far from easy; Miranda repeatedly called Zimbabwe's senior officials "difficult" and painted a picture of a GOZ that does not even trust senior leaders to attend meetings alone. During a SADC meeting on Botswana's proposal to suspend Zimbabwe from SADC, the Zimbabwean Foreign Minister told Miranda he could only attend in the company of two other Ministers. Miranda also said the GRA's work with Zimbabwe has remained at the level of dialogue, rather than other forms of assistance. He said the GRA and South African Government had offered to send advisors to train Zimbabwean police and investigate complaints of police abuses before the June runoff election. However, Mugabe flatly declined Miranda's offer. ¶6. (C) COMMENT: Miranda's comments square with the GRA's actions to date (reftel). He made clear the GRA view that stability in the region outweighs all other factors in the Zim crisis. However, Miranda's "quiet diplomacy" reflects the GRA's pragmatic assessment of how best to engage Zimbabwe's difficult and irrational regime. END COMMENT MOZENA