EU OBSERVATION MISSION AT RISK

C O N F I D E N T I A L LUANDA 000563 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/22/2018 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL AO SUBJECT: EU OBSERVATION MISSION AT RISK REF: LUANDA 0556 Classified By: AMB DAN MOZENA FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) The local EU delegation has expressed growing concerns about prospects for a successful EU observation mission for the September 5 legislative elections. According to local EU sources, both the EU and GRA are holding fast to their respective positions on a Memorandum of Understanding - the EU believes they cannot mount a comprehensive mission with out up-front assurances that observers will have complete freedom of movement, while the Angolans insist such assurances aren't necessary (reftel). The Europeans told the Ambassador that the matter has now gone back to Brussels for an advisory opinion; Brussels' likely response is unclear. ¶2. (C) In the meantime, the EU observation mission is on hold. The ten members of the management team were slated to arrive in country July 23; planned arrival has postponed until Tuesday July 29. This would then delay the arrival of 80 long term observers; they had been slated to arrive July 30, but the management team needs a week in-country to prepare for their arrival. A management team member and European Commission staffer separately told POLOFF that if an MOU is not signed such that the management team can arrive by August 5, the EU will simply call off the mission rather than perform what they view as sub-par observation. ¶3. (C) The National Electoral Commission (CNE) is inviting other international organizations, but it is unclear if they have the capacity or funding to perform long-term observation or cover every province. On July 22 the CNE invited an African Union Observation mission, and the Brazilian Embassy told POLOFF that the Community of Portuguese Language Countries (CPLP) has been invited to send a mission. That mission will be small, perhaps as few as 8 short-term observers. ¶4. (C) COMMENT: While other observations missions add value, the lack of EU long-term observers would seriously impact the international community's ability to gauge the political space and climate, particularly outside of Luanda and a handful of other cities, during the open campaign period, which kicks off August 6th and goes until the election. Opposition parties, civil society, and ordinary citizens have also been adamant about the important role an EU observation mission would play in lending credibility to the electoral process. The Embassy as well has underscored to the CNE the important role EU observers could play in confirming the credibility of elections. END COMMENT MOZENA