EU OBSERVATION MISSION AT RISK

C O N F I D E N T I A L LUANDA 000563

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/22/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL AO
SUBJECT: EU OBSERVATION MISSION AT RISK

REF: LUANDA 0556

Classified By: AMB DAN MOZENA FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) The local EU delegation has expressed growing concerns
about prospects for a successful EU observation mission for
the September 5 legislative elections. According to local EU
sources, both the EU and GRA are holding fast to their
respective positions on a Memorandum of Understanding - the
EU believes they cannot mount a comprehensive mission with
out up-front assurances that observers will have complete
freedom of movement, while the Angolans insist such
assurances aren't necessary (reftel). The Europeans told the
Ambassador that the matter has now gone back to Brussels for
an advisory opinion; Brussels' likely response is unclear.


2. (C) In the meantime, the EU observation mission is on
hold. The ten members of the management team were slated to
arrive in country July 23; planned arrival has postponed
until Tuesday July 29. This would then delay the arrival of
80 long term observers; they had been slated to arrive July
30, but the management team needs a week in-country to
prepare for their arrival. A management team member and
European Commission staffer separately told Poloff that if an
MOU is not signed such that the management team can arrive by
August 5, the EU will simply call off the mission rather than
perform what they view as sub-par observation.


3. (C) The National Electoral Commission (CNE) is inviting
other international organizations, but it is unclear if they
have the capacity or funding to perform long-term observation
or cover every province. On July 22 the CNE invited an
African Union Observation mission, and the Brazilian Embassy
told Poloff that the Community of Portuguese Language
Countries (CPLP) has been invited to send a mission. That
mission will be small, perhaps as few as 8 short-term
observers.


4. (C) COMMENT: While other observations missions add value,
the lack of EU long-term observers would seriously impact the
international community's ability to gauge the political
space and climate, particularly outside of Luanda and a
handful of other cities, during the open campaign period,
which kicks off August 6th and goes until the election.
Opposition parties, civil society, and ordinary citizens have
also been adamant about the important role an EU observation
mission would play in lending credibility to the electoral
process. The Embassy as well has underscored to the CNE the
important role EU observers could play in confirming the
credibility of elections. END COMMENT
MOZENA