ALL QUIET ON ZIMBABWE AS MOMENTUM SHIFTS TO MUGABE

UNCLAS LUANDA 000338 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV AO ZI SUBJECT: ALL QUIET ON ZIMBABWE AS MOMENTUM SHIFTS TO MUGABE REF: A) LUANDA 331 B) LUANDA 254 ¶1. (U) One week after the visit of A/S Frazer and NSC Senior Director Bobby Pittman to Angola to consult with President Dos Santos (ref A) on the issue of Zimbabwe, the GRA has yet to make a public statement on the crisis. News reports in the state run press have been minimalist, focused on the progress made toward releasing electoral results and the possibility of a run-off. Independent weekly journals have offered very little analysis to counter the perception of normalcy in Zimbabwe promoted in the state run press. ¶2. (SBU) No official statement has been made recently concerning the An Yue Jiang, the Chinese ship carrying arms for Zimbabwe and other merchandise for Angola. Unverified reports around the diplomatic circuit here say the ship has already docked in Luanda and off loaded its cargo. According to one unverified report accredited by our source to the U.S. Embassy in Harare, the Zimbabwean arms were off loaded and were to be flown to Harare. Other unverified reports from international press stringers suggest the GRA or an independent actor in Angola purchased the Zimbabwean arms (thus complying with the President's order not to off load Zimbabwean arms) in order to sell them to the highest bidder, potentially including Zimbabwe. We have no evidence to support any of the assertions of these unverified reports. ¶3. (U) Officials from the troika countries (Angola, Tanzania, and Swaziland) of the SADC Organ for Politics, Defense, and Security are to meet in Luanda on May 2-4 to discuss political issues in Zimbabwe, Lesotho, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Post will monitor the meetings and report significant developments. ¶4. (SBU) Comment: Zimbabwe's electoral crisis is evolving in line with GRA hopes for an outcome legally keeping Mugabe and the ZANU-PF in power (as described (ref B) to the Ambassador by Vice Minister for External Relations Jorge Chicoti on March 30). We assess Angola will not be in the forefront of any push to alter the current trajectory of the crisis. MOZENA