Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08LONDON890
2008-03-27 17:28:00
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN
Embassy London
Cable title:  

TONY BLAIR AND JOHN MCCAIN TALK ABOUT

Tags:  PREL PINR PTER IS RU UK 
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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8039
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHAM/AMEMBASSY AMMAN 0504
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 1024
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C O N F I D E N T I A L LONDON 000890 

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SIPDIS
NOFORN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/27/2018
TAGS: PREL PINR PTER IS RU UK
SUBJECT: TONY BLAIR AND JOHN MCCAIN TALK ABOUT
ISRAEL/PALESTINE AND RUSSIA HANDLING

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Maura Connelly for reasons
1.4 (b,d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L LONDON 000890

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
NOFORN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/27/2018
TAGS: PREL PINR PTER IS RU UK
SUBJECT: TONY BLAIR AND JOHN MCCAIN TALK ABOUT
ISRAEL/PALESTINE AND RUSSIA HANDLING

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Maura Connelly for reasons
1.4 (b,d)


1. (C/NF) Summary: Tony Blair used his meeting with
Senators John McCain, Joseph Lieberman and Lindsey Graham to
underscore the "centrality" of Israel/Palestine in bringing
stability to the Middle East. Blair said progress could be
made by "building from the bottom up," including by
developing a competent Palestinian security force. Blair and
the Senators briefly discussed Northern Ireland and climate
change. Blair said his time away from the office of Prime
Minister had made him realize Russia had been mishandled in
the post-Yeltsin years and an opportunity had been missed.
He counseled against making similar mistakes with China.
McCain explored his idea of building a "League of
Democracies." Blair looked years younger than he appeared
during his last months in office. He told the Senators that
Europe is not anti-American and asked McCain for his take on
the race for the Presidency. End Summary.

Participants
--------------


2. (U) Tony Blair and his political director Matthew Doyle
met Senators John McCain, Joseph Lieberman and Lindsey Graham
in London at the Mandarin Hotel on March 21. Senate staff
Fontaine and poloff also participated.

Blair Convinced of the Centrality of Israel/Palestine
-------------- --------------


3. (C/NF) Quartet Representative Tony Blair said his time
out of office had only heightened his perception that solving
Israel/Palestine was central to bringing stability to the
region. He said the idea up to now had been to cut a
political deal in order to produce change on the ground.
"I'm afraid it's the other way around," said Blair. "The
only way to create conditions which will succeed on final
status is for Palestine to radically improve its security
capacity and to give Palestine sufficient hope occupation
could be lifted while keeping Israel's security concerns in
mind," he explained. Gaza, warned Blair, could capsize at
any point. Israel will go in very hard when Hamas fires

rockets. "But we have to offer the people of Gaza a strong
message about what can be done if this stops," said Blair,
adding that the population thinks the situation is hopeless.
"A huge percentage of the population would immediately move
away from supporting Hamas if they were given cause for
hope," he explained. Senator Lieberman agreed that people
have to be shown again that hope is real.


4. (C/NF) Senator McCain asked Blair whether he had any

contact with the Hamas leadership. Blair said, "No, but I
know plenty who have." He said a deal could be cut on final
status but the Palestinians would have to make a huge
sacrifice on right of returns. To achieve this compromise
necessitates a change in public opinion for as it stands the
Arab League will reject the deal. This would require a
change in the security equation. It would be useful to be
able to tell Hamas, that if it stops the rockets, access to
humanitarian assistance would increase, explained Blair.
Lieberman asked if Blair had talked to Israel; he said he
had. As an alternative to changing the security equation,
Blair described a worsening scenario whereby, "Hamas empties
Gaza, blames Israel, and extremism increases." Lieberman
said he was encouraged by what Blair had said about the
willingness of the population in Gaza to shift its support
away from Hamas. Blair mentioned a program for training
Palestinian security forces in Jordan. He said "If you ask
both peoples 'do you want a two state solution?' They say
'yes.' If you ask them 'do you think it is possible?' Both
say 'no.'" Blair described this as the "credibility gap" for
political discussions which had to be got around by improving
the security for Israel and lifting the occupation for
Palestine. If these changes don't take place on the ground,
argued Blair, we'll end up with a "theoretical deal which is
very hard to sell."

Regional Import
--------------



5. (C/NF) McCain asked Blair for his assessment of
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. Blair said he
was, "well intentioned but not that good." He contrasted
this assessment with that of Arafat who, "had the political
guile but not the will." Blair underscored that moving this
issue was of "fundamental importance" and that moderate
Arabs, including the Saudi King, were worried about it and
what it could mean for the spread of extremism. Turning to
Lebanon, Blair said, "We are ignoring it, but what is
happening is terrible." He added that it is a democratic
country "where elected leaders are being executed."

Blair's Experience with Northern Ireland
--------------


6. (C/NF) Referring to his role in brokering a peace deal
for Northern Ireland while he was Prime Minister, Blair said
that he had been immersed in the detail and this had been key
to his success. Another crucial component had been "having
good, knowledgeable military guys" on the ground. Israel
needed to find a means to put forward confidence building
measures (cbms) and Palestine has to improve security and
manage Gaza, suggested Blair. In reply to Lieberman, Blair
said a cbm could be regularizing an ID system for Palestinian
day traders and cutting the waiting time for them at the
border from three hours to half an hour. McCain asked
whether the deal in Northern Ireland itself would hold and
whether the police integration problem had been resolved.
Blair said it would take time for the deal to jell and for
the parties to recognize all changes, including the
legitimacy of the police, but he was confident the deal was
in place and the parties would uphold their obligations.

Climate Change, the U.S. and Europe
--------------


7. (C/NF) Senator Lieberman asked Blair to help on climate
change and told him of his legislation. Blair, who had just
returned from India and discussions on climate change, said
it would be great if elements of an agreement could be agreed
upon with Japan and China in time for the G8 meeting in July.
McCain said he hadn't realized what an emotional issue
climate change was for the Europeans. Blair replied that
U.S. engagement on brokering agreed elements would show,
"America listens as well as leads."


8. (C/NF) Informing the Senators that French President
Sarkozy would visit the UK on a state visit, Blair described
Sarkozy as a "force of nature" but added that America could
not expect to have a more pro-U.S. head of state in France.
It was important, said Blair, that the Senators understood
that "when you scratch beneath Europeans, they are not
anti-American."

"Missed Opportunity" with Russia; Implications for China
-------------- --------------


9. (C/NF) Since leaving office, said Blair, he has turned
his interests eastward. He was concerned that we risked
establishing "two top tables" with the United States at one,
Europe at the other, and China playing off the two. This was
analogous to the "most damaging thing we did with Russia."
He said the post-Yelstin era marked a missed opportunity,
when Russia had taken advantage of the lack of a cohesive
response from Europe and the U.S. in response to the
increasingly autocratic Putin, who had undone much of
Russia's democratic progress. Continuing with the boarding
school analogy, Blair said, "if America and Europe are at the
same table, we can manage China and Russia." McCain said
this was why he was developing the concept of a "league of
democracies" to join like-minded nations together in common
cause based on shared values. He asked Blair his views on
Putin. "The problem with managing Putin and Russia," said
Blair, "is that we have to deal with them when it comes to
Iran." The rest of the strategy, he said, should be to make
Russia a "little desperate" with our activities in areas
bordering on what Russia considers its sphere of interest and
along its actual borders. Russia had to be shown firmness
and sown with seeds of confusion.


American Elections
--------------


10. (C/NF) Blair told the Senators the British public was
following the U.S. Presidential race and the primary process
was a great global advertisement for democracy. He
congratulated McCain for completely turning around his
campaign and asked for his assessment of the race for the
Democratic nomination. Without making any fixed prediction,
McCain said the one thing his time in politics had taught him
was "to never underestimate a Clinton."

Al Qaeda and Extremism
--------------


11. (C/NF) Blair said he understood, even more than when he
was Prime Minister, that the Middle East is in transition,
adding, but, "transit to where?" We are in a war, he said,
if not a conventional one. If we walk away (from Iraq) we
send a terrible signal. In the Middle East, at the time of
the release of the National Intelligence Assessment on Iran,
there was an immediate repositioning of attitudes to Iran.
One part of the region is feudal and susceptible to
extremism. Israel/Palestine is a cause which allows
extremist Islam to claim the center ground, concluded Blair.


12. (U) Senators McCain, Lieberman, and Graham did not have
the opportunity to clear this cable.

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