BROWN MEETS MCCAIN: DISCUSS IRAQ, AFGHANISTAN, AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LONDON 000878 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/25/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PHUM EFIN EAID UNSC IZ AF IS IR, SU, UK SUBJECT: BROWN MEETS MCCAIN: DISCUSS IRAQ, AFGHANISTAN, AND REFORM OF THE IFIS Classified By: Ambassador Robert H. Tuttle for reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C/NF) Summary: Prime Minister Gordon Brown met Senators John McCain, Joseph Lieberman and Lindsey Graham in London March 20. Brown used the meeting to present his big ideas about reforming the international financial institutions (IFIS) and increasing assistance to Africa as a means to prevent terrorism as well as counter China. McCain gave his assessment of current progress in Iraq and thanked Brown for showing political courage by keeping British troops in Basrah. McCain and the other Senators raised Israel, Iran, Afghanistan and climate change. Brown told McCain the UK will increase its nuclear energy capacity and discussed Iran in terms of Europe's management of its energy dependency on Russia. Brown heard that McCain is looking for an alternative to Guantanamo and McCain said U.S. personnel "will never torture another person in our custody again." The Senators and the Prime Minister discussed terrorism in Iraq and the UK, with Brown ending the meeting by emphasizing the need to win hearts and minds. The meeting took place in Brown's Cabinet Room, but the mood was informal. End Summary. Participants -------------- ¶2. (U) Prime Minister Gordon Brown met Senators McCain, Lieberman and Graham in his Cabinet Room. Seated around the table were Brown's advisors Simon McDonald, Stewart Wood and private secretary Tom Fletcher. The Senators were accompanied by Ambassador Tuttle, Senate staff Fontaine, Serchuk, Shuffield, poloff and military escort. McCain Thanks Brown for Standing Firm in Iraq -------------- ¶3. (C/NF) Senator McCain thanked Brown for British military participation in Iraq where, he said, "significant progress" has been made. McCain said "in Anbar, people are happy, the shops are open, they want to vote." McCain also thanked Brown for Britain's military commitment in Afghanistan, which he described as "difficult." McCain said he expected a battle in Mosul that would last months -- there would be casualties -- but it would not be like Falluja. He said Al Qaeda "thinks they can't succeed unless they take Baghdad," and he thought "Iran was going to become more involved, rather than less." He said there were 20,000 individuals detained in Camp Bucca and that the release process had to be started. McCain described the Maliki government as, overall, "weak," but it had improved; starting at a "one" on a one-to-ten scale, it now registers as a "four." McCain told Brown the American people "want us out, but see success." He added that what is being seen in Iraq is an increase in the number of suicide attacks by individuals while statistically the situation is getting better. McCain told Brown that Israel is getting ready to attack Hamas; he did not know when, but the attack "would be worse than the last time." McCain also thanked the Prime Minister for his leadership on climate change. Brown on Iraq -------------- ¶4. (C/NF) The Prime Minister described Britain's changed military role in Iraq, saying British forces had moved from being a combat force to working with Iraqi troops to improve their capabilities. Brown said the violence had diminshed in Basrah although the JAM and the Iranian were increasing their influence. The important element was providing the people hope for the future. It was important to "put an economic piece" in place, to give the populace an economic stake in the outcome. Also important was increasing the operational capacity of the police. Brown said the area has huge economic prospects and that economic development was key. This could be accomplished only by first training Iraqi LONDON 00000878 002 OF 003 forces and holding local elections. Brown on Afghanistan -------------- ¶5. (C/NF) Brown said he was "worried that Karzai is not strong enough" and the government administration was weak. Forty-three countries are present in Afghanistan but NATO country participation is uneven, even though "everyone knows Afghanistan is the front line" for combating Al Qaeda. Brown's Big Ideas for the IFIS -------------- ¶6. (C/NF) Suddenly becoming more engaged, the Prime Minister turned to his interest in reform of the international financial institutions (IFIS) and underscoring the importance of aid in world affairs. "If you are going to prescribe everything for countries, you have to provide economic assistance," said Brown. "The World Bank has become the World Bank for development," he said, "why not make it the bank for assistance and the environment?" Brown said putting,"the Bank at the center of the environment and not just development,"would be an "act of statesmanship." McCain told Brown that Senator Lieberman, together with Senator Warner, is working on new climate change legislation. Senator Lieberman said his bill contained a provision for grants to developing countries and he thought the President would sign it. Brown returned to his thesis on reforming the IFIS, noting two other reforms were necessary. He said the IMF was "almost irrelevant" and it had to take on a new role. He said the world needed an "early warning system" along the lines that Alan Greenspan had played for the U.S. If the IMF took on this role, mused Brown, people would have confidence. "Unless the IMF changes," said Brown, "it will become increasingly irrelevant at a time when financial markets are becoming more global." ¶7. (C/NF) Brown launched into ideas about finding ways to "build failed states." He noted that there are some 100,000 peacekeepers across the globe but that failed states still exist in places like Somalia, Darfur and Chad. "If we can be more effective at stabilizing and reconstructing, some cases can be avoided," said Brown, who pointed to Europe's successful experience in the Balkans. McCain on Iran; Darfur -------------- ¶8. (C/NF) Senator McCain agreed with Brown's remarks about nation building, but noted his own concerns with the Security Council. He said, "no matter how clear the evidence is, the Security Council is not going to act." This was the case with Darfur. Iran and Sudan were two significant problems, yet the world's next superpower (China) was constraining the Council. McCain asked Brown if there were ways the U.S. and the UK, together with other like-minded nations including Japan, could work collectively. McCain said it was worth exploring with French President Sarkozy if there were ways to work collectively on Iran. He clarified that he was not speaking of military action but of sanctions and noted that "Iran is not going to be the last nation to seek to acquire nuclear weapons." Brown on Iran, Russia, and the UK Nuclear Program -------------- -------------- ¶9. (C) Brown told McCain he thought the G8 could be more effective. As to Iran, it was the Eastern European nations which were most concerned with not being dependent on Russia. They were therefore willing to make deals with Iran. The Eastern Europeans, "may want to do anything to have options that are not Russia," said Brown. Brown told McCain that the United Kingdom itself would be expanding its nuclear energy program. McCain asked what the UK did with its spent fuel. LONDON 00000878 003 OF 003 Brown said this was the controversial part of the program and that peoples' fears were not yet alleviated. Building new nuclear plants had to be considered, however, as it was clear North Sea oil reserves are on the wane. The same decisions were being taken elsewhere in Europe, Brown said, and pointed to oil rich Norway making decisions on nuclear plants even though its oil and gas reserves are far from exploited. Lieberman raised the "up and down" nature of relations with Europe. Brown plunged in, saying this year was good -- with Sarkozy in France and Merkel in Germany. He said Europe was ready to respond to overtures on the environment, security and the global economy. Brown on Africa and Terrorism -------------- ¶10. (C/NF) The Prime Minister raised his concern that Africa would be the next region to fall prey to the appeal of terrorism. He said there weren't enough schools in Africa and that madrassas were springing up across the continent. "Al Qaeda will find support in some of these countries," said Brown, "unless we show we are willing to be there." He added that China was buying all the natural resources on the continent and increasing African governments' debt. The "twin issues" of China and Al Qaeda in Africa were his concern. Brown said the UK and the U.S. needed to make Africans, and African governments, an offer that will help them to operate in a transparent and democratic fashion. Brown's big idea was to give 10 billion dollars a year dedicated to schools. Brown claimed this amount was sufficient to provide each child in Africa access to a school. Advocating that this could be the Western world's "offer" to Africa, Brown said such a broad commitment to schools and to health across the continent was necessary or "terrorism will take hold." He said Western assistance to Africans in the form of aid for education and health would be concrete expressions the West can "deliver its values" and would undermine the appeal of AQ extremism. Brown said Africa presented a "big opportunity" and that African leaders are ready to respond and need support. CODEL on Guantanamo, Torture, and Al Qaeda -------------- ¶11. (C/NF) Senator Graham said McCain was looking at alternatives to Guantanamo. McCain reiterated what he told Brown he has said before, "we will never torture another person in our custody again." In Iraq, McCain said, the Senators had met with a former Al Qaeda leader. McCain had asked what had led to Al Qaeda's gaining a strong foothold in the country. The Al Qaeda leader had replied, "two things, the chaos after the success of the initial invasion, and the greatest recruiting tool -- Abu Ghraib." The UK Terror Threat -------------- ¶12. (C/NF) Brown said winning the battle of ideas is important. "We have terror networks in the UK, with four potential plots active right now." He told McCain a huge number of individuals travel to and from Pakistan and the UK. The security and intelligence services in Britain are great, said Brown, but in the end, HMG has to win hearts and minds to isolate the extremists. Visit London's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/london/index. cfm Tuttle