WALES: WHO WILL REPLACE FIRST MINISTER MORGAN WHEN

C O N F I D E N T I A L LONDON 002204

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/27/2018
TAGS: PGOV UK
SUBJECT: WALES: WHO WILL REPLACE FIRST MINISTER MORGAN WHEN
HE RESIGNS?

Classified By: Classified by Political Minister Counselor Greg Berry fo
r reasons 1.4 (b) AND (d).


1. (C) Speculation is rife in the Welsh media and among
Welsh political insiders as to whom the Labor Party would
"parachute in" to rescue the party in Wales and replace Welsh
Assembly First Minister Rhodri Morgan, who has announced he
will resign as First Minister in 2009, but retain his seat in
the Assembly until 2011. POLOFF spoke to Dr. Hywel Francis,
Labor MP and Chair of the Welsh Affairs committee of the
House of Commons on August 27th. He said several Assembly
Members (AMs) are positioning themselves to succeed Morgan,
but all are seen as flawed and many in the Welsh Labor party
are still looking for a "white knight" who has the stature
and vision to lead the Assembly as Labor prepares for the
next election in 2011 in the face of weakening political
support.


2. (C) According to Welsh media, the two leading candidates
for the role of white knight appear to be former Secretary of
State for Wales Peter Hain and European Parliament Member
(MEP) Eluned Morgan. Both have strong name recognition and
previous experience in government. Neither is an AM at
present, however. In order for either to serve as First
Minister, they would have to win a by-election. However,
neither of the two most likely constituencies - one
supposedly available due to the illness of the incumbent, and
the other due to the incumbent's age - are considered safe
seats, given Labor's recent electoral trouble in recent
Parliamentary by-elections, and the small majorities the two
incumbents enjoyed in the 2007 Assembly election. Both
incumbents deny they would resign to make way for Mr. Hain or
Ms. Morgan, but both might be made offers they couldn't
refuse, such as peerages, according to Francis. Given this,
some senior Labor officials in London are reportedly
discounting either white knight candidate and are calling on
Rhodri Morgan to stay in office until his AM term ends in
2011 and a "proper" successor can be found. This has not
stopped many Labor activists in Wales from rapidly dividing
into the "Peter" or "Eluned" camps.

Comment
--------------


3. (C) Ironically, this comes as the Labor leader's position
becomes less attractive. Devolution is weak and troubled in
Wales, the economy is the worst in the UK (England, Scotland,
and Northern Ireland are all doing better) and both Plaid
Cymru and the Tories are showing gains in Wales. No signal
has come from either potential white knight candidate
concerning their interest in succeeding Morgan After 11
years of Labor with few economic gains to show and
disenchantment with devolution, both opposition parties are
polling stronger against Labor. The polling gains could see
the current power-sharing arrangement with Plaid Cymru
extended at the price of a Plaid First Minister.


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