Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08LONDON189
2008-01-18 18:22:00
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN
Embassy London
Cable title:
EL BARADEI ON HIS TEHRAN VISIT: SEES IRANIANS AS
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C O N F I D E N T I A L LONDON 000189
SIPDIS
NOFORN
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/18/2018
TAGS: PREL KPRP PGOV PHUM IR UK
SUBJECT: EL BARADEI ON HIS TEHRAN VISIT: SEES IRANIANS AS
"RELAXED," WITH "PLAUSIBLE" ANSWERS
REF: LONDON 103
Classified By: Political Counselor Richard Mills for reasons 1.4 (b) an
d (d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L LONDON 000189
SIPDIS
NOFORN
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/18/2018
TAGS: PREL KPRP PGOV PHUM IR UK
SUBJECT: EL BARADEI ON HIS TEHRAN VISIT: SEES IRANIANS AS
"RELAXED," WITH "PLAUSIBLE" ANSWERS
REF: LONDON 103
Classified By: Political Counselor Richard Mills for reasons 1.4 (b) an
d (d)
1. (C/NF) Summary. IAEA Head Mohammed El Baradei told UK
Foreign Secretary Miliband January 17 that during El
Baradei's visit to Tehran last week Iranian officials
appeared "very relaxed" and seemed to be feeling no pressure
on the nuclear file. Miliband's conversation with El Baradei
reportedly included pushback by Miliband on El Baradei's view
of the contamination issue. End Summary.
Suspension: El Baradei Sees No Hope
--------------
2. (C/NF) El Baradei told Foreign Secretary Miliband, in a
phone call to brief Miliband on El Baradei's recent trip to
Tehran, that El Baradei estimates there is now "zero percent"
chance IRI would suspend enrichment and "twenty percent"
chance of a freeze on enrichment ("freeze" not further
defined). El Baradei said he was told Iran would be
installing 12 new "research" centrifuges in Natanz "in due
course," with the object of increasing centrifuge efficiency.
Contamination "No Longer an Issue"
--------------
3. (C/NF) El Baradei said that the "contamination issue" is
"no longer an outstanding issue." FCO noted to Poloff that
El Baradei did not call the issue closed, and that El Baradei
said the Iranians had provided "plausible" answers on
contamination -- El Baradei judged there are unlikely to be
any more questions answered by IRI on contamination, making
the issue in El Baradei's view "no longer outstanding."
Miliband pushed back on contamination, calling this a "weak
judgment" by El Baradei in light of the importance of the
issue.
El Baradei's Timeframe: Late February
--------------
4. (C/NF) On the timeframe for Iran's report to the IAEA, El
Baradei said he expects Iran to report in "the third or
fourth week of February." (Embassy comment: This is
considerably beyond the 28 days initially announced by El
Baradei. End comment.) FCO colleague told Poloff another
(unidentified) FCO source says February 15 is the likely
deadline for IRI response to IAEA.
5. (C/NF)Poloff received a readout of the El
Baradei-Miliband call from FCO Counterproliferation
Department Regional Head Isabella McCrae; McCrae had not
participated in the phone call, but briefed Poloff based on
what Foreign Secretary had told her of his telephone
conversation with El Baradei.
Comment: UK Sees El Baradei As Biased
--------------
6. (C/NF) HMG had a skeptical view of El Baradei's pro-IRI
inclinations before he left for Iran (ref). The above
readout suggests that the skepticism was well-founded: the
IAEA chief, in gauging for P5 1 governments the prospects of
obtaining Iranian cooperation on suspension and transparency,
may have come near to accepting his Tehran interlocutors'
confident demeanor, and dispositive statements, at face
value.
Visit London's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/london/index. cfm
Tuttle
SIPDIS
NOFORN
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/18/2018
TAGS: PREL KPRP PGOV PHUM IR UK
SUBJECT: EL BARADEI ON HIS TEHRAN VISIT: SEES IRANIANS AS
"RELAXED," WITH "PLAUSIBLE" ANSWERS
REF: LONDON 103
Classified By: Political Counselor Richard Mills for reasons 1.4 (b) an
d (d)
1. (C/NF) Summary. IAEA Head Mohammed El Baradei told UK
Foreign Secretary Miliband January 17 that during El
Baradei's visit to Tehran last week Iranian officials
appeared "very relaxed" and seemed to be feeling no pressure
on the nuclear file. Miliband's conversation with El Baradei
reportedly included pushback by Miliband on El Baradei's view
of the contamination issue. End Summary.
Suspension: El Baradei Sees No Hope
--------------
2. (C/NF) El Baradei told Foreign Secretary Miliband, in a
phone call to brief Miliband on El Baradei's recent trip to
Tehran, that El Baradei estimates there is now "zero percent"
chance IRI would suspend enrichment and "twenty percent"
chance of a freeze on enrichment ("freeze" not further
defined). El Baradei said he was told Iran would be
installing 12 new "research" centrifuges in Natanz "in due
course," with the object of increasing centrifuge efficiency.
Contamination "No Longer an Issue"
--------------
3. (C/NF) El Baradei said that the "contamination issue" is
"no longer an outstanding issue." FCO noted to Poloff that
El Baradei did not call the issue closed, and that El Baradei
said the Iranians had provided "plausible" answers on
contamination -- El Baradei judged there are unlikely to be
any more questions answered by IRI on contamination, making
the issue in El Baradei's view "no longer outstanding."
Miliband pushed back on contamination, calling this a "weak
judgment" by El Baradei in light of the importance of the
issue.
El Baradei's Timeframe: Late February
--------------
4. (C/NF) On the timeframe for Iran's report to the IAEA, El
Baradei said he expects Iran to report in "the third or
fourth week of February." (Embassy comment: This is
considerably beyond the 28 days initially announced by El
Baradei. End comment.) FCO colleague told Poloff another
(unidentified) FCO source says February 15 is the likely
deadline for IRI response to IAEA.
5. (C/NF)Poloff received a readout of the El
Baradei-Miliband call from FCO Counterproliferation
Department Regional Head Isabella McCrae; McCrae had not
participated in the phone call, but briefed Poloff based on
what Foreign Secretary had told her of his telephone
conversation with El Baradei.
Comment: UK Sees El Baradei As Biased
--------------
6. (C/NF) HMG had a skeptical view of El Baradei's pro-IRI
inclinations before he left for Iran (ref). The above
readout suggests that the skepticism was well-founded: the
IAEA chief, in gauging for P5 1 governments the prospects of
obtaining Iranian cooperation on suspension and transparency,
may have come near to accepting his Tehran interlocutors'
confident demeanor, and dispositive statements, at face
value.
Visit London's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/london/index. cfm
Tuttle