SLOVENIA DUBIOUS EU WILL DO MUCH ON BOSNIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L LJUBLJANA 000486 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/SCE - FOOKS AND STINCHCOMB AND EUR/CE E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/28/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL BK EU SI SUBJECT: SLOVENIA DUBIOUS EU WILL DO MUCH ON BOSNIA REF: STATE 113894 Classified By: ADCM S. Shultz, Reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) On October 29, Emboff met with Leon Marc, Head of the Division for Southeastern Europe, to relay USG views on the deteriorating situation in Bosnia and Herzegovinia, per reftel. Marc stressed that the best leverage the EU has is the message that Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) can only enter as a single state. Marc commented that possible measures against the RS was not "in the EU's vocabulary, it was only give, give, give." He noted that the 267 million euros the EU had earmarked for BiH for 2008-2010 will be spent regardless of how cooperative BiH was. ¶2. (C) Although Marc was unsure whether the EU would agree, he suggested approaching Dodik from the point of view of his private business dealings, which were not transparent and closer to a "mafia-run business." Dodik would not be able to complain that the EU was pressuring the RS, but it could have a positive impact and moderate his political views. Marc also emphasized trying to find some form of "constructive positive empowerment" of the Bosniaks. Although he could not specify any measures, he recommended engaging Ceric, the head of the Muslem Church, identifying him as someone with influence and who has a strategy for Bosnia. Slovenia's view is that Bosniaks must become more self-assertive, in turn becoming more reasonable, and thus able to gain more EU support. ¶3. (C) Marc stated that Slovenia would only "softly" mention these ideas with reference to the GAERC or the Solana-Rehn paper, which would be made available to member-states at the beginning of November as a food for thought paper for the November GAERC. Marc said that the Solana-Rehn paper would condemn all national rhetoric, but he did not see the EU considering any punitive measures against Dodik. According to Marc, the view in Brussels is that there is no more moderate leader available in the RS. Marc also noted the divergence of Slovenia, and of the majority of the EU, on both OHR closure and renewing constitutional reform discussions. Marc explained that Slovenia felt it needed to support Lajcak's view that he could work better with OHR closed. GHAFARI