SLOVENIA DUBIOUS EU WILL DO MUCH ON BOSNIA

					  C O N F I D E N T I A L LJUBLJANA 000486 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/SCE - FOOKS AND STINCHCOMB AND EUR/CE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/28/2018 
TAGS: PGOV PREL BK EU SI
SUBJECT: SLOVENIA DUBIOUS EU WILL DO MUCH ON BOSNIA 
 
REF: STATE 113894 
 
Classified By: ADCM S. Shultz, Reasons 1.4 (b,d) 
 
					

1. (C) On October 29, Emboff met with Leon Marc, Head of the
Division for Southeastern Europe, to relay USG views on the
deteriorating situation in Bosnia and Herzegovinia, per
reftel. Marc stressed that the best leverage the EU has is
the message that Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) can only enter
as a single state. Marc commented that possible measures
against the RS was not "in the EU's vocabulary, it was only
give, give, give." He noted that the 267 million euros the
EU had earmarked for BiH for 2008-2010 will be spent
regardless of how cooperative BiH was.



2. (C) Although Marc was unsure whether the EU would agree,
he suggested approaching Dodik from the point of view of his
private business dealings, which were not transparent and
closer to a "mafia-run business." Dodik would not be able to
complain that the EU was pressuring the RS, but it could have
a positive impact and moderate his political views. Marc
also emphasized trying to find some form of "constructive
positive empowerment" of the Bosniaks. Although he could not
specify any measures, he recommended engaging Ceric, the head
of the Muslem Church, identifying him as someone with
influence and who has a strategy for Bosnia. Slovenia's view
is that Bosniaks must become more self-assertive, in turn
becoming more reasonable, and thus able to gain more EU
support.



3. (C) Marc stated that Slovenia would only "softly" mention
these ideas with reference to the GAERC or the Solana-Rehn
paper, which would be made available to member-states at the
beginning of November as a food for thought paper for the
November GAERC. Marc said that the Solana-Rehn paper would
condemn all national rhetoric, but he did not see the EU
considering any punitive measures against Dodik. According
to Marc, the view in Brussels is that there is no more
moderate leader available in the RS. Marc also noted the
divergence of Slovenia, and of the majority of the EU, on
both OHR closure and renewing constitutional reform
discussions. Marc explained that Slovenia felt it needed to
support Lajcak's view that he could work better with OHR
closed.
GHAFARI