SLOVENIA: INCOMING PM PROMISES CONTINUITY, BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LJUBLJANA 000459 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2018 TAGS: PREL MOPS NATO PGOV PINR MARR SI SUBJECT: SLOVENIA: INCOMING PM PROMISES CONTINUITY, BUT IRAQ COMMITMENT IN DOUBT Classified By: Ambassador Yousif B. Ghafari, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Future Prime Minister Borut Pahor assured the Ambassador October 9 that he would continue the current government's foreign policy. However, he did not allow himself to be drawn into a discussion of details, and he alluded to conflicting demands from his likely coalition partners. Embassy notes that there is widespread sympathy for withdrawal of Slovenia's two officers from the NATO Training Mission in Iraq (NTM-I) among Pahor's more left-leaning coalition partners and constituents. On Iraq therefore, we will be swimming against the tide (but swimming hard nevertheless). On Afghanistan, we are confident that we can convince the new government to at least stay the course and perhaps to take on a somewhat more robust mission. In both cases, we will have to overcome Pahor's propensity to avoid confrontation with his coalition partners. Pahor also confirmed that President Turk may reject the outgoing government's nomination of Matjaz Sinkovec to be Ambassador to the U.S., but that he would resubmit the nomination to the President once he takes office. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Pahor, though still not formally nominated by the President, hosted a warm, private lunch for the Ambassador on October 9. He was accompanied by his chief of staff, Simona Dimic, who, like Pahor, is an alumnus of the International Visitor Program. DCM Brad Freden accompanied the Ambassador. This was the first such lunch hosted by Pahor with a Ljubljana-based diplomat that we are aware of. Pahor made a point of beginning the conversation with praise for the overall direction of the current center-right government's foreign policy, but he politely avoided any discussion of specifics. The only exception was with regard to Croatia, where he criticized Gregor Golobic, the leader of the Zares party and one of Pahor's future coalition partners, for his recent public statement on Croatia. Golobic advocated a bilateral approach to the long-standing border demarcation issue, a position that differs from Slovenia's -- and Pahor's -- official position that the dispute can best be resolved by third-party arbitration. Pahor did not allow himself to be drawn into a discussion of Slovenia's continued participation in the NATO missions in Iraq, Afghanistan and Kosovo. However, his party's platform included a promise to withdraw Slovenia's two trainers from NTM-I. ¶3. (C) On the composition of the new government, Pahor only revealed one name: former Central Bank governor Mitja Gaspari. The one-time presidential candidate is widely respected for his expertise. Gaspari is known as a liberal free-market economist and proponent of fiscal discipline. However, we are told that Gaspari's weak management skills make it unlikely that he would end up as Finance or Economy Minister; rather, he is likely to become a minister without portfolio. Pahor laughed when asked about press speculation on the identity of the next Foreign Minister. "The only thing I can tell you is not to believe the press," Pahor said; "I don't even know who it will be." He reiterated his pledge that there would be no personnel "tsunami" -- only ministers and state secretaries would be replaced without cause. Pahor also said he would strive for a less confrontational relationship with the press than PM Jansa. ¶4. (C) Pahor brought up the outgoing government's "rush" to nominate ambassadors, saying that President Turk had some qualms about several nominations. Without being asked specifically, he noted that the Ambassador-designate to the U.S., Matjaz Sinkovec, was among those whose nominations Turk might not sign. Pahor said, however, that he would resubmit Sinkovec's nomination if Turk did not sign it, and that he thought it unlikely the President would reject the nomination a second time. The point was clear: Pahor would not break with the current government's policies, even if it meant sending one of Jansa's allies to Washington. Pahor also noted casually that Turk received the Social Democratic party's nomination for President only after Pahor had declined to run, and that he had personally called Turk to offer him the nomination. Turk, it seemed, clearly owed his position to Pahor and would by implication work more closely with the new PM than he had with Jansa. ¶5. (C) On Russia, Pahor said that he was committed to following common EU and NATO policy. When asked about the South Stream pipeline, he noted that energy was one area where there was no common European policy, and that therefore Slovenia had to "maneuver carefully" because of its dependence on Russian energy. LJUBLJANA 00000459 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) COMMENT. On the positive side, we have the beginnings of a "special relationship" with Pahor. He is extraordinarily open to us and seems to share our views on a personal level. However, Pahor is criticized by even his allies for lacking the temperament to impose his political will on others. He ran for Prime Minister under the motto "the policy of compromise." In short, he may be too nice -- a flaw no one has ever accused the current Prime Minister of sharing. Pahor is therefore likely to have his work cut out for him when it comes to managing his own coalition, to say nothing of the opposition. Janes Markes, a journalist and one of Jansa's erstwhile allies, noted "a widening gap" between the Social Democrats and coalition-partner Zares. He also told us that the mild-mannered Pahor "is in for a rude awakening if he thinks Jansa will behave in opposition as Pahor did." Further complicating matters, Pahor is closer to the political center than his two main coalition partners, not to mention some within his own party. Taken together, these factors indicate that Pahor will have to show uncharacteristically strong leadership if he is going to deliver on his assurance of continuity in foreign policy. The Ambassador closed by saying that we had several issues that we would like to discuss with the new government in greater detail as soon as it takes office. END COMMENT. GHAFARI