LEFT STAGES SURPRISE UPSET IN SLOVENIA'S ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LJUBLJANA 000431 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/CE E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON ENRG SI SUBJECT: LEFT STAGES SURPRISE UPSET IN SLOVENIA'S ELECTION REF: A. LJUBLJANA 421 ¶B. LJUBLJANA 367 ¶C. LJUBLJANA 347 ¶D. LJUBLJANA 313 Classified By: DCM Brad Freden, reasons 1.4(b,d) ¶1. (C) Summary. Unofficial results from the September 21 parliamentary elections indicate that the center-left Social Democrats (SD) defeated the center-right Slovene Democratic Party (SDS),leader in the governing coalition. SD won 30.5 percent of the vote, resulting in 29 parliamentary seats, while Prime Minister Janez Jansa's SDS got 29.3 percent and 28 parliamentary seats. Slovenia's president, Danilo Turk, will likely nominate Borut Pahor, SD's leader, as candidate for prime minister following the September 29 release of official election results. Though there are doubts within center-left ranks about his capacity to govern, Pahor already has most of a parliamentary majority lined up, with Zares and LDS, and will round out the coalition with either DeSUS or SLS/SMS (ref A). The new government's foreign policy shifts will likely include a move to withdraw the two Slovenian troops from NTM-I and possibly putting Slovenia's South Stream commitment on hold. We will immediately begin engaging leaders of the center-left coalition to urge them to rethink their position on Iraq. Suggested press guidance is in para 8 and additional suggestions for engagement are in para 9. End Summary. -------------- By the Numbers: Election Results -------------- ¶2. (C) The combined total of 45 percent for the center left parties, SD, Zares, and LDS, far exceeded the predictions of pre-election polls. In the wake of this surprise victory, Pahor will explore including either DeSUS or SLS/SMS, both part of the current government, in the new government as well. On the right, Nova Slovenija (NSi),led by finance minister Andrej Bajuk and part of Jansa's coalition, did not receive enough votes to cross the 4 percent threshold required for inclusion in the parliament. After early results came in, an NSi politico lamented the lack of any Christian Democrat representation in parliament, saying that "the Communists" are back in power. Bajuk has announced that he would no longer lead NSi, and that party leaders would get together to determine the direction of the party now that it is out of parliament. Jelencic's nationalist party, SNS, will likely stay in the opposition. ¶3. (U) Total turnout was 62.2 percent, with a total vote count of 1,053,468. Party: Seats: Percentage: SD 29 30.5 SDS 28 29.3 Zares 9 9.4 DeSUS 7 7.5 SNS 5 5.5 SLS/SMS 5 5.2 LDS 5 5.2 Other* 2 *(Italian and Hungarian minority representatives) ¶4. (SBU) Official results will be announced on September 29. Shortly thereafter, the parliament will hold its first session and the president will nominate a candidate, most probably Borut Pahor, for Prime Minister. Following that nomination, Pahor will have 30 days to form a coalition. We expect a government to up and running by the first half of November. -------------- Foreign Policy with a New Government -------------- ¶5. (C) Though Pahor has told the Ambassador that an SD-led government would not make any abrupt changes, it is likely the new government will decide to withdraw its two troops from NTM-I (ref A). Keeping Slovenia engaged in Iraq will be a challenge. The arrival of a new government, however, presents an opportunity to slow Slovenia's involvement in South Stream (ref C). -------------- Potential Problems, Partners -------------- LJUBLJANA 00000431 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) Many center-left supporters are concerned that Pahor is not up to the task of holding together a coalition. Contacts told us that SD's win was more of a vote against Jansa than a vote of confidence in Pahor. During the campaign, Pahor succeeded in keeping egos within his own party in check and working with the other center-left parties. His challenge is now to do the same while governing. ¶7. (C) The jockeying for position had already intensified in the hours after polls closed. Karl Erjavec, DeSUS leader and current defense minister, announced that he wanted three cabinet seats as the price for DeSUS joining a coalition. He would likely disagree with any defense budget cuts or withdrawal from Iraq. SD might decide that is too high a price, and turn to SLS, a perpetual coalition partner, to reach the required 46 votes in parliament. -------------- Looking Ahead -------------- ¶7. (C) The Ambassador will seek to meet with the new political leaders and engage them on our foreign policy priorities. As we meet with potential governing coalition partners, we will emphasize the need for Slovenia to stay the course in Iraq and Afghanistan. Unlike when they were in the opposition, Pahor and his allies will be responsible for Slovenia's international reputation; sudden changes will not play well on the international stage. We will encourage them to put South Stream on hold, since there should be no rush to sign this year. We will urge Slovenia to support Georgia and to encourage Serbia to look ahead to European integration rather than dwelling on the past. ¶8. (U) We recommend that Washington publicly congratulate Slovenia on holding another round of free and fair elections, praising the country for its solid democratic track record, and noting that the U.S. looks forward to a continuing close, deep relationship with Slovenia and the new government. ¶9. (C) Post recommends that the White House and/or Secretary call the Prime Minister when the new government is announced. We also recommend a high-level visit (DAS or Assistant Secretary) soon after that announcement, as it would be an opportunity to discuss priorities and reinforce U.S. positions. FREDEN