LEFT STAGES SURPRISE UPSET IN SLOVENIA'S ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LJUBLJANA 000431

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/CE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON ENRG SI
SUBJECT: LEFT STAGES SURPRISE UPSET IN SLOVENIA'S ELECTION

REF: A. LJUBLJANA 421

B. LJUBLJANA 367

C. LJUBLJANA 347

D. LJUBLJANA 313

Classified By: DCM Brad Freden, reasons 1.4(b,d)


1. (C) Summary. Unofficial results from the September 21
parliamentary elections indicate that the center-left Social
Democrats (SD) defeated the center-right Slovene Democratic
Party (SDS),leader in the governing coalition. SD won 30.5
percent of the vote, resulting in 29 parliamentary seats,
while Prime Minister Janez Jansa's SDS got 29.3 percent and
28 parliamentary seats. Slovenia's president, Danilo Turk,
will likely nominate Borut Pahor, SD's leader, as candidate
for prime minister following the September 29 release of
official election results. Though there are doubts within
center-left ranks about his capacity to govern, Pahor already
has most of a parliamentary majority lined up, with Zares and
LDS, and will round out the coalition with either DeSUS or
SLS/SMS (ref A). The new government's foreign policy shifts
will likely include a move to withdraw the two Slovenian
troops from NTM-I and possibly putting Slovenia's South
Stream commitment on hold. We will immediately begin
engaging leaders of the center-left coalition to urge them to
rethink their position on Iraq. Suggested press guidance is
in para 8 and additional suggestions for engagement are in
para 9. End Summary.

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By the Numbers: Election Results
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2. (C) The combined total of 45 percent for the center left
parties, SD, Zares, and LDS, far exceeded the predictions of
pre-election polls. In the wake of this surprise victory,
Pahor will explore including either DeSUS or SLS/SMS, both
part of the current government, in the new government as
well. On the right, Nova Slovenija (NSi),led by finance
minister Andrej Bajuk and part of Jansa's coalition, did not
receive enough votes to cross the 4 percent threshold
required for inclusion in the parliament. After early results
came in, an NSi politico lamented the lack of any Christian
Democrat representation in parliament, saying that "the
Communists" are back in power. Bajuk has announced that he
would no longer lead NSi, and that party leaders would get
together to determine the direction of the party now that it
is out of parliament. Jelencic's nationalist party, SNS,
will likely stay in the opposition.


3. (U) Total turnout was 62.2 percent, with a total vote
count of 1,053,468.

Party: Seats: Percentage:
SD 29 30.5
SDS 28 29.3
Zares 9 9.4
DeSUS 7 7.5
SNS 5 5.5
SLS/SMS 5 5.2
LDS 5 5.2
Other* 2
*(Italian and Hungarian minority representatives)


4. (SBU) Official results will be announced on September 29.
Shortly thereafter, the parliament will hold its first
session and the president will nominate a candidate, most
probably Borut Pahor, for Prime Minister. Following that
nomination, Pahor will have 30 days to form a coalition. We
expect a government to up and running by the first half of
November.

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Foreign Policy with a New Government
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5. (C) Though Pahor has told the Ambassador that an SD-led
government would not make any abrupt changes, it is likely
the new government will decide to withdraw its two troops
from NTM-I (ref A). Keeping Slovenia engaged in Iraq will be
a challenge. The arrival of a new government, however,
presents an opportunity to slow Slovenia's involvement in
South Stream (ref C).

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Potential Problems, Partners
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6. (C) Many center-left supporters are concerned that Pahor
is not up to the task of holding together a coalition.
Contacts told us that SD's win was more of a vote against
Jansa than a vote of confidence in Pahor. During the
campaign, Pahor succeeded in keeping egos within his own
party in check and working with the other center-left
parties. His challenge is now to do the same while governing.


7. (C) The jockeying for position had already intensified in
the hours after polls closed. Karl Erjavec, DeSUS leader and
current defense minister, announced that he wanted three
cabinet seats as the price for DeSUS joining a coalition. He
would likely disagree with any defense budget cuts or
withdrawal from Iraq. SD might decide that is too high a
price, and turn to SLS, a perpetual coalition partner, to
reach the required 46 votes in parliament.

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Looking Ahead
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7. (C) The Ambassador will seek to meet with the new
political leaders and engage them on our foreign policy
priorities. As we meet with potential governing coalition
partners, we will emphasize the need for Slovenia to stay the
course in Iraq and Afghanistan. Unlike when they were in the
opposition, Pahor and his allies will be responsible for
Slovenia's international reputation; sudden changes will not
play well on the international stage. We will encourage them
to put South Stream on hold, since there should be no rush to
sign this year. We will urge Slovenia to support Georgia and
to encourage Serbia to look ahead to European integration
rather than dwelling on the past.


8. (U) We recommend that Washington publicly congratulate
Slovenia on holding another round of free and fair elections,
praising the country for its solid democratic track record,
and noting that the U.S. looks forward to a continuing close,
deep relationship with Slovenia and the new government.


9. (C) Post recommends that the White House and/or Secretary
call the Prime Minister when the new government is announced.
We also recommend a high-level visit (DAS or Assistant
Secretary) soon after that announcement, as it would be an
opportunity to discuss priorities and reinforce U.S.
positions.
FREDEN