JANSA COULD TURN BRIBERY ALLEGATION TO HIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L LJUBLJANA 000408

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/CE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/05/2018
TAGS: PGOV KCOR MASS SI
SUBJECT: JANSA COULD TURN BRIBERY ALLEGATION TO HIS
ADVANTAGE IN RUN-UP TO ELECTION

Classified By: Amb. Yousif B. Ghafari, Reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY. The September 1 Finnish TV program accusing
PM Janez Jansa of accepting a bribe of up to 21 million euros
in connection with the Slovenian Ministry of Defense 258
million euro deal to buy 135 Finnish Patria armored motorized
vehicles (AMVs) has started a firestorm in Slovenia in the
run-up to national elections on September 21. PM Jansa has
repeatedly denied the accusations flat-out, attributing them
to a pre-election smear campaign. While one might expect such
explosive allegations to hurt Jansa politically, many
Slovenes seem to have the opposite reaction: they see Jansa
as a victim. Jansa's camp has aggressively cultivated this
perception, and it is still too early to tell whether the
allegations will help or hurt the incumbent. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) The Patria scandal has dominated the media and public
discourse this week. We expect the spotlight to stay focused
on this issue, despite PM Jansa's call to focus on what
political parties are offering for the future of Slovenia.
One Slovene lamented that this had looked to be Slovenia's
first election that would focus on real issues and not on the
past (i.e., who were partisans or collaborators in World War
II),but that the scandal was now preventing Slovenes from
looking to the future.


3. (C) Slovenes disagree on the impact of the accusations.
At a September 3 luncheon hosted by the Ambassador, top
Slovene business leaders agreed that the allegations would
have an impact, but disagreed as to whether it would help or
hurt Jansa. Given the lack of hard evidence, many believe
the accusations could actually help PM Jansa and his party,
the Slovene Democratic Party (SDS),due to the perception
that he is being unfairly targeted. In a September 3
conversation with the Ambassador, even Jansa's main rival for
the post of PM, Social Democrat leader Borut Pahor, hesitated
to criticize his opponent over the scandal or predict what
impact the allegations might have. In an informal
conversation with journalists on September 5, we were told
that absent a smoking gun, Jansa is likely to benefit from
the perception that he is being treated unfairly. However,
if documentary evidence surfaces in the last two weeks of the
campaign, Jansa will suffer. One journalist compared it to
the Lockheed scandal that brought down the Tanaka government
in Japan in 1976.


4. (C) Conspiracy theories abound, including one that
General Dynamics, which also bid on the AMV deal, stood to
gain if the contract were annulled, and so could be behind
the accusations. The Finnish journalist has refused to
reveal the evidence of his accusations, which the TV station
stands behind, saying the evidence would be produced in
February/March when the Finnish police bring the case to
court. On Setember 4, the Finnish Ambassador told the
Ambassdor that FM Rupel had pressed her on the issue. Te
Slovene Parliament plans to hold an extraordinry session the
week of September 8 on the matter Many Slovene politicos
have told us that that sssion could be decisive in the minds
of many votrs. Thus far, polling shows that the public
beleves Jansa.


5. (C) Comment: Although the scanda could be expected to
hurt Jansa's chances Septeber 21, that might not be the case
- if no hard eidence comes to light. Slovenia remains a
county where politics is personal; Slovenes will vote fr
the person, not the party. So if Jansa comes out looking
like the victim of a baseless attack, he, and SDS, might get
a big boost. On the other hand, if the public starts to feel
there is some truth to the story, the opposition Social
Democrats could win big. At this point, it is still too
early to tell.
GHAFARI