SLOVENIA PREDICTS "DIFFICULT" SEPTEMBER 5-6 GYMNICH

C O N F I D E N T I A L LJUBLJANA 000398 NOFORN SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/ERA, EUR/CE E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/03/2018 TAGS: PREL EUN PGOV PHUM GG RU SI SUBJECT: SLOVENIA PREDICTS "DIFFICULT" SEPTEMBER 5-6 GYMNICH REF: A. STATE 93272 ¶B. STATE 93264 Classified By: DCM Brad Freden, Reasons 1.4 (b,d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) On September 4, Emboff delivered the points on Georgia and non-Georgia topics in advance of the September 5-6 Gymnich meeting (refs A and B) to MFA European Correspondent Aljaz Arih. Although Gymnichs are usually relaxed, Arih predicted that this one would be difficult because of Georgia. He stressed that Slovenia hoped the September 8 visit by Sarkozy, Barroso, and Solana to Moscow would bring positive results. He noted that the FMs would not discuss Serbia and EULEX at the Gymnich. He also relayed the agenda topics for the September 15 GAERC: Georgia, WTO, Zimbabwe, the Western Balkans, and possibly Somalia and Belarus. End Summary. Georgia -------------- ¶2. (C) Arih said he expected a short discussion about the EU's future relations with Russia, including proposals about possible EU actions. He added that Slovenia did not think a decision was needed now about canceling the EU-Russia Summit scheduled for November 14. Given that energy security was an important part of the EU's relationship with Russia, Arih expected that the FMs would discuss alternative routes for oil and gas from Central Asia and the Caucasus; i.e., Nabucco. The FMs would also discuss the modalities of a possible donors conference, which Slovenia supports. ¶3. (C) Arih explained that Slovenia advocated a "middle road" approach on Georgia. The EU should keep communications and cooperation open, while sending positive messages of support for Georgia. Russia should not be able to get away with using the pretext of protecting its citizens to use military force. This was "unacceptable," and of concern given the significant number of Russian passport holders in Ukraine and Moldova. Since the crisis began, Slovenia had provided 100,000 euros for humanitarian aid to Georgia. In addition, Slovenia strongly supported sending a civilian ESDP mission to Georgia. Arih said that the aim was to adopt a decision on the ESDP Mission at the September 15 GAERC, although Cyprus still opposed the mission. He opined that Slovenia would contribute to an ESDP mission, if the EU approved one. ¶4. (C) According to Arih, Slovenia also strongly supported a positive message of support to Ukraine at the upcoming EU-Ukraine Summit. He hoped that a clear EU positive signal would be sent; however, he noted that there was still no final agreement about how far the Presidency could go at the Summit. MEPP -------------- ¶5. (C) Arih said that Slovenia's position remained the same. Slovenia supported the ongoing peace process, but thought that more progress on the ground could facilitate negotiations. Thus more pressure should be exerted on Israel to freeze all settlements. In addition, Israel should be asked to "reopen Palestinian institutions in east Jerusalem because the lack of secular institutions had contributed to radicalization, which was unhelpful to the negotiating process." EU Security Strategy -------------- ¶6. (C) Arih stated that Solana would report on progress and possibilities before producing a final report at the December EU Council. Slovenia favored "refreshing" the EU Security Strategy (EUSS),but not drafting a new agreement. He explained that the issues of terrorism, international crime, proliferation, and failing states remained key threats, but the EUSS should also take into account new challenges such as climate change and energy security. In addition, the EUSS should factor in linked issues such as economic conditions and migration in a refreshed strategy. Transatlantic Relations -------------- ¶7. (C) Arih referred to the May letter from Portuguese FM Amado as the starting point for the EU thinking about setting new priorities in its transatlantic relations. While Slovenia agrees with the guidelines of his letter, Slovenia had different ideas. Security remained crucial and the first priority. Slovenia also found TEC "very useful," and believed it should be further developed. Arih said FM Rupel would also propose establishing a similar framework for political discussions - some sort of permanent body to deal with key questions. Arih allowed that at the Gymnich there would be several proposals about redefining the relationship, and he could not predict how far FM Rupel would push this proposal. Afghanistan/Pakistan -------------- ¶8. (C) Arih noted that Afghanistan/Pakistan would be a subpoint under transatlantic relations. He explained the thinking that the U.S. and EU should have a common transatlantic policy, in particular with Pakistan and its relations with Afghanistan. Slovenia was worried about the situation in Pakistan and hoped elections would proceed as democratically as possible and contribute to stability. Slovenia was also concerned about the situation on the ground in Afghanistan. The international community should be more vocal about building up rule of law, human rights, and democratic institutions. GHAFARI