SLOVENIA IN ADVANCE OF JANUARY 28 GAERC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LJUBLJANA 000032

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FOR EUR/ERA, EUR/NCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2018
TAGS: PREL EUN IR IS SY SI PGOV PK KE
SUBJECT: SLOVENIA IN ADVANCE OF JANUARY 28 GAERC

Classified By: Charge Maryruth Coleman, Reasons 1.4 (b,d)

Summary and Background
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1. (C) In their January 24 meeting, Deputy European
Correspondent Aljaz Arih explained to ADCM that now that
Slovenia had the Presidency, it would not express strong
positions on the issues. Instead, Slovenia's main task was
to organize the GAERCs and put all the issues together. He
said, however, that he could tell us what the Presidency
expected from the GAERC. According to Arih, the GAERC will
issue conclusions on the Western Balkans, Middle East,
Lebanon, Kenya, Sudan/Darfur, and Chad. He also stated that
Iraq, Burma, and the DRC were not on the January 28 GAERC
agenda. Arih referred to the Secretary's recent meeting in
Berlin with other EU FMs, where they discussed Kosovo. Arih
said the EU definitely did not want a split between the EU
and the U.S. on the process, but also admitted that the EU
had not yet been able to agree on the way forward. End
Summary and Background.

Western Balkans
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2. (C) Arih reported on the read-out Slovenia had received
about the Secretary's meeting in Berlin that had also touched
upon Kosovo. His understanding was that the Secretary had
been firm that there should not be any further delay on
Kosovo's declaration of independence. He continued that
although there was still no agreement within the EU on the
way forward, they wanted to avoid a split in transatlantic
unity.


3. (C) Arih said that he expected the documents needed for
deployment of the ESDP mission should be about 90 percent
done by the GAERC. The EU was still considering different
possibilities for adopting the decision: holding a new
meeting with FMs; taking the decision on the margins of
another meeting, such as the February 12 ECOFIN meeting; or
adopting the decision by written procedure. The FMs might
discuss some of the remaining issues during lunch, but
Slovenia intended to focus the lunch discussion on Serbia.
Slovenia sought to limit the discussion on Kosovo at the
GAERC in order to avoid sending the wrong message to Serbia
before the second round of elections.


4. (C) Arih explained that Slovenia wanted the Serbia
discussion to focus on how the EU could support pro-European
forces in Serbia. He noted that the EU was still considering
FM Rupel's proposal for a task force, and that consultations
were ongoing. The FMs might announce the establishment of a
task force on Serbia during the GAERC, but Slovenia would not
fall on its sword over the issue. Slovenia wanted to send a
clear positive signal before the second round of Serbian
elections. At the same time, Slovenia sought to avoid the
impression that it was misusing its position as President of
the EU Council. Arih said that during Rupel's consultations,
"the Hague's reaction wasn't negative, but it had asked for
more detail and clarity." Slovenia was optimistic that the
EU could establish a task force with a clear mandate that
would not/not be another obstacle on Serbia's path to the EU.
Arih confirmed that the EU was unlikely to sign an SAA with
Belgrade during the GAERC, although they would have a troika
meeting with Serbia the evening of January 28.


5. (C) The Council would issue conclusions on Serbia and visa
facilitation and readmission agreement. The conclusions
would also refer to the EU Commission launching visa
liberalization dialogue with all countries in the region (one
of Slovenia's priorities).

Iran
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6. (C) Arih said that Iran would be a short information point
during lunch. He expected that Solana and the three FMs
would brief on the outcome of their Berlin meeting with the
Secretary. He added that the Presidency welcomed the news

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that there would be a new UNSCR by the end of February. Arih
noted that there would not be any discussion of new EU
sanctions, but the COMEM working group would see where

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member-states stand on additional EU autonomous sanctions.


Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process
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7. (C) Arih commented that it was difficult to say how far
the discussion on the Middle East peace process would go. He
predicted they would exchange views on developments in Gaza,
which would be the focus of the discussion. He mentioned EU
fears that a humanitarian crisis could erupt there.
According to Arih, the FMs would adopt conclusions that were
similar to previous conclusions: condemning the violence,
expressing concern about the continuation of settlement
activities; a whole paragraph on violence in Gaza; a
paragraph on the Quartet; EUPOL COPPS; a reference to the
Paris Donors Conference; and the new Commission Pegase
mechanism.

Lebanon
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8. (C) Arih relayed that the focus of the discussion would be
the postponement of presidential elections and what the
international community can do to break the deadlock. The
Council conclusions on Lebanon would include: condemnation of
terrorist attacks on UNIFIL and the bombing of the U.S.
vehicle; concern about the absence of a head of government;
support for the Arab League initiative; recalling the
importance of stability of Lebanon for the whole region;
support for Sinora; reiterating the EU's position on respect
for Lebanon's sovereignty; and looking forward to the
Tribunal starting work as soon as possible.

Pakistan
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9. (C) Arih stated that the EU FMs would probably conduct an
assessment of the current political situation on the ground
in Pakistan. FM Rupel met Musharraf on January 21, and would
report on his meeting, as would Solana and FM Kouchner. The
FMs would discuss how to help Pakistan hold free and fair
elections, acknowledging that free and fair elections in
Pakistan differed from those in Europe. EU would send an
election observer mission to Pakistan. Arih noted that
France had proposed establishing a "group of eminent persons"
who would try to assist Pakistan in the process of
democratization and a national dialogue between Musharraf and
the opposition. Arih added that some member-states were not
supportive of the idea, but that France would raise it at the
GAERC.

Sudan/Darfur
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10. (C) Arih said the Council would issue "really long"
conclusions on Sudan. The conclusions include a focus on
UNAMID; call on the GOS to fulfill its promises of full
cooperation; reference to attacks; no impunity for war
crimes, etc. He predicted the discussion would go along the
lines of our talking points. He noted that Jan Eliasson, UN
Special Envoy on Darfur, would be at the GAERC and report on
activities in Sudan, including efforts to mediate among the
rebel groups and to get them back to the negotiating table.

Kenya
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11. (C) Arih noted that Kenya was also on the GAERC agenda.
The FMs would assess the situation and discuss how the EU
could support Kofi Annan's efforts there. He noted that the
Council would have conclusions on Kenya, as well as Chad, but
did not provide any further detail.
COLEMAN