SLOVENIA IN ADVANCE OF JANUARY 28 GAERC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LJUBLJANA 000032 SIPDIS SIPDIS FOR EUR/ERA, EUR/NCE E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2018 TAGS: PREL EUN IR IS SY SI PGOV PK KE SUBJECT: SLOVENIA IN ADVANCE OF JANUARY 28 GAERC Classified By: Charge Maryruth Coleman, Reasons 1.4 (b,d) Summary and Background -------------- ¶1. (C) In their January 24 meeting, Deputy European Correspondent Aljaz Arih explained to ADCM that now that Slovenia had the Presidency, it would not express strong positions on the issues. Instead, Slovenia's main task was to organize the GAERCs and put all the issues together. He said, however, that he could tell us what the Presidency expected from the GAERC. According to Arih, the GAERC will issue conclusions on the Western Balkans, Middle East, Lebanon, Kenya, Sudan/Darfur, and Chad. He also stated that Iraq, Burma, and the DRC were not on the January 28 GAERC agenda. Arih referred to the Secretary's recent meeting in Berlin with other EU FMs, where they discussed Kosovo. Arih said the EU definitely did not want a split between the EU and the U.S. on the process, but also admitted that the EU had not yet been able to agree on the way forward. End Summary and Background. Western Balkans -------------- ¶2. (C) Arih reported on the read-out Slovenia had received about the Secretary's meeting in Berlin that had also touched upon Kosovo. His understanding was that the Secretary had been firm that there should not be any further delay on Kosovo's declaration of independence. He continued that although there was still no agreement within the EU on the way forward, they wanted to avoid a split in transatlantic unity. ¶3. (C) Arih said that he expected the documents needed for deployment of the ESDP mission should be about 90 percent done by the GAERC. The EU was still considering different possibilities for adopting the decision: holding a new meeting with FMs; taking the decision on the margins of another meeting, such as the February 12 ECOFIN meeting; or adopting the decision by written procedure. The FMs might discuss some of the remaining issues during lunch, but Slovenia intended to focus the lunch discussion on Serbia. Slovenia sought to limit the discussion on Kosovo at the GAERC in order to avoid sending the wrong message to Serbia before the second round of elections. ¶4. (C) Arih explained that Slovenia wanted the Serbia discussion to focus on how the EU could support pro-European forces in Serbia. He noted that the EU was still considering FM Rupel's proposal for a task force, and that consultations were ongoing. The FMs might announce the establishment of a task force on Serbia during the GAERC, but Slovenia would not fall on its sword over the issue. Slovenia wanted to send a clear positive signal before the second round of Serbian elections. At the same time, Slovenia sought to avoid the impression that it was misusing its position as President of the EU Council. Arih said that during Rupel's consultations, "the Hague's reaction wasn't negative, but it had asked for more detail and clarity." Slovenia was optimistic that the EU could establish a task force with a clear mandate that would not/not be another obstacle on Serbia's path to the EU. Arih confirmed that the EU was unlikely to sign an SAA with Belgrade during the GAERC, although they would have a troika meeting with Serbia the evening of January 28. ¶5. (C) The Council would issue conclusions on Serbia and visa facilitation and readmission agreement. The conclusions would also refer to the EU Commission launching visa liberalization dialogue with all countries in the region (one of Slovenia's priorities). Iran -------------- ¶6. (C) Arih said that Iran would be a short information point during lunch. He expected that Solana and the three FMs would brief on the outcome of their Berlin meeting with the Secretary. He added that the Presidency welcomed the news SIPDIS that there would be a new UNSCR by the end of February. Arih noted that there would not be any discussion of new EU sanctions, but the COMEM working group would see where LJUBLJANA 00000032 002 OF 002 member-states stand on additional EU autonomous sanctions. Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process -------------- ¶7. (C) Arih commented that it was difficult to say how far the discussion on the Middle East peace process would go. He predicted they would exchange views on developments in Gaza, which would be the focus of the discussion. He mentioned EU fears that a humanitarian crisis could erupt there. According to Arih, the FMs would adopt conclusions that were similar to previous conclusions: condemning the violence, expressing concern about the continuation of settlement activities; a whole paragraph on violence in Gaza; a paragraph on the Quartet; EUPOL COPPS; a reference to the Paris Donors Conference; and the new Commission Pegase mechanism. Lebanon -------------- ¶8. (C) Arih relayed that the focus of the discussion would be the postponement of presidential elections and what the international community can do to break the deadlock. The Council conclusions on Lebanon would include: condemnation of terrorist attacks on UNIFIL and the bombing of the U.S. vehicle; concern about the absence of a head of government; support for the Arab League initiative; recalling the importance of stability of Lebanon for the whole region; support for Sinora; reiterating the EU's position on respect for Lebanon's sovereignty; and looking forward to the Tribunal starting work as soon as possible. Pakistan -------------- ¶9. (C) Arih stated that the EU FMs would probably conduct an assessment of the current political situation on the ground in Pakistan. FM Rupel met Musharraf on January 21, and would report on his meeting, as would Solana and FM Kouchner. The FMs would discuss how to help Pakistan hold free and fair elections, acknowledging that free and fair elections in Pakistan differed from those in Europe. EU would send an election observer mission to Pakistan. Arih noted that France had proposed establishing a "group of eminent persons" who would try to assist Pakistan in the process of democratization and a national dialogue between Musharraf and the opposition. Arih added that some member-states were not supportive of the idea, but that France would raise it at the GAERC. Sudan/Darfur -------------- ¶10. (C) Arih said the Council would issue "really long" conclusions on Sudan. The conclusions include a focus on UNAMID; call on the GOS to fulfill its promises of full cooperation; reference to attacks; no impunity for war crimes, etc. He predicted the discussion would go along the lines of our talking points. He noted that Jan Eliasson, UN Special Envoy on Darfur, would be at the GAERC and report on activities in Sudan, including efforts to mediate among the rebel groups and to get them back to the negotiating table. Kenya -------------- ¶11. (C) Arih noted that Kenya was also on the GAERC agenda. The FMs would assess the situation and discuss how the EU could support Kofi Annan's efforts there. He noted that the Council would have conclusions on Kenya, as well as Chad, but did not provide any further detail. COLEMAN