PDAS VOLKER AND PORTUGUESE POLITICAL DIRECTOR;

C O N F I D E N T I A L LISBON 000606 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/27/2018 TAGS: PREL MOPS PHUM KDEM AF EUN PO SUBJECT: PDAS VOLKER AND PORTUGUESE POLITICAL DIRECTOR; KOSOVO, AFGHANISTAN, NATO REF: LISBON 510 Classified By: CONOFF KATHRYN FITRELL, REASONS 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (U) Summary: During PDAS Volker's visit to Lisbon for the February 22 Bilateral Commission (septel),Volker and Ambassador Stephenson met privately with Foreign Ministry Political Director Ambassador Vasco Bramao Ramos and, later in the day, with the Secretary of State for Defense, Joao Mira Gomes, to discuss a range of foreign policy issues, including Kosovo, Afghanistan, NATO, Russia, East Timor, and Cuba. Portugal is still in the process of deciding whether and when to recognize Kosovo. Officials expressed concern over Afghanistan, and believe that Pakistan's recent elections will have a significant impact on the region's stability. Concerning expansion of NATO, Portugal supports the membership of Macedonia, Croatia and Albania. End Summary. Kosovo ¶2. (C) On the subject of Kosovo, Bramao Ramos was not specific about if and when Portugal would recognize its declared independence. He opened the discussion by asking whether the Ambassador and Volker had noticed he did not use the word "recognition" in his opening remarks. He said he had not expected the majority of people, press and opinion makers of Portugal to present such a "unified front" voicing their doubts about recognizing Kosovo. Bramao Ramos said he was pleased that the EU successfully issued a framework that provided each nation with flexibility to establish relations with Kosovo on its terms and timing. ¶3. (C) PDAS Volker commented that Moratinos' comments that the framework was illegal were "very destructive." Bramao Ramos responded by stating that Moratinos had to disassociate himself from the framework because of the upcoming elections in Spain on March 9. Bramao Ramos cited the commitment of EU Ministers to put forth a framework, noting that when negotiations were blocked on Sunday night, February 18, the Ministers asked all staff to leave and managed to produce a text. (Interestingly, the text was written in Spanish.) ¶4. (C) When pressed for specifics on timing for Portugal, Bramao Ramos said the first step had been taken by consulting with Parliament and the political parties. Then the Prime Minister and the President would have the final say. He couldn't "foresee how things will go at this point." The Ambassador said Foreign Minister Amado related to him that Amado would push hard for Portugal to be part of the first wave of countries, emphasizing the importance of quickly recognizing Kosovo to get it off the front pages and send a message to Belgrade and Moscow. Volker added that, surprisingly thus far -- the transition has been fairly smooth and relatively non-violent, which should encourage other nations. Bramao Ramos predicted that two-thirds of the EU will recognize Kosovo in a few weeks, but he did not specifically say that Portugal would be included. ¶5. (C) Bramao Ramos said there appears to be a 50/50 split of Serbian support between Prime Minister Kostunica and President Tadic of Serbia. In private meetings with the former, Bramao Ramos had underscored the inevitability of Kosovo,s independence and the need for good relations, but the Prime Minister did not budge from his position. With the latter, Bramao Ramos understood that Tadic "would look the other way" regarding Kosovar independence. Bramao Ramos said we had to provide the correct incentives, without mentioning specifics. ¶6. (C) In Volker,s and the Ambassador's meeting with the Secretary of State for Defense, Mira Gomes underscored the SIPDIS GOP's commitment to Kosovo and KFOR but said it was another important topic for the NATO Summit in Bucharest. He added that the next U.S. Administration should focus on NATO and EU cooperation in Kosovo. Afghanistan ¶7. (C) Referring to Bramao Ramos' earlier comments during the Commission plenary questioning whether NATO forces were welcome in Afghanistan, PDAS Volker said it exemplified how "we've lost control of the storyline." The upcoming NATO Summit in Bucharest, he said, will provide the opportunity to focus the Alliance's mission on Afghanistan, including non-NATO partners and the further development of non-military strategies to complement military action. ¶8. (C) Bramao Ramos said Afghanistan is in a very unstable region. When the Ambassador noted the dramatic improvements that had taken place, Bramao Ramos countered by asking about the opium trade. Volker said the drug operations are being run in an organized crime fashion, and benefit the Taliban. Bramao Ramos said the Afghan people will strive to improve their quality of life whether it's cultivating opium or wheat. Volker noted, however, the farmers are not the ones getting the money from opium production, and would not ordinarily be levied a 10 percent tax on their harvests, as they currently are by the drug lords for producing opium. Bramao Ramos acknowledged that what happens in Pakistan will have a significant impact and expressed hope that the recent elections will continue to push political developments in a peaceful direction. NATO ¶9. (C) Volker began his meeting with Mira Gomes by discussing the upcoming NATO Summit, emphasizing that Afghanistan would be top on the agenda and the public must have the proper perspective of the strategic effort. Mira Gomes said that although the Vilnius Defense Ministers meeting yielded good discussions, the public perception - though not the reality - was that the alliance was divided between the U.S. and the rest. He cautioned that this must not be repeated in Bucharest. Mira Gomes also stated the need to designate a special representative for Afghanistan before the Summit in April. The move would put pressure on the Afghan government to address issues with respect to human rights, the judiciary and corruption. It is hard to justify risking the lives of soldiers if the Afghan government does not live up to standards, he said. ¶10. (C) Additionally, Mira Gomes said the GOP would remove the Portuguese company from Afghanistan after three years to give the soldiers a rest and fulfill other commitments. Both the Ambassador and Volker stressed the importance of keeping the company in place. Volker said the move could be misinterpreted as indicating that Portugal no longer believed in the mission. ¶11. (C) Concerning NATO enlargement, Mira Gomes that the three prospective member countries, Macedonia, Croatia and Albania, should be invited simultaneously to provide stabilization to the region. Macedonia should not be blocked over its name; the GOP proposed using "New Macedonia." Volker said Georgia and the Ukraine should receive encouragement for their NATO aspirations at the Bucharest Summit. Mira Gomes said the GOP was cautious because the Ukraine is so divided already that prospective membership in NATO may divide the country further. Missile Defense/Russia ¶12. (C) Volker raised the missile defense program with Bramao Ramos saying that Russia hopes to continue blocking progress by keeping Europe divided. Talks with Poland and Czech Republic, however, are on track. ¶13. (C) In his meeting, Mira Gomes said it was critical that NATO not be divided over the issue of missile defense, adding that some nations are concerned that they will not be protected. He said that Article 5 should be applied equally to all countries, rather than allowing "hosting" countries (those with the radar and missiles) to enjoy more protections under Article 5. East Timor ¶14. (C) Bramao Ramos said that GOP is very concerned about the country. In the aftermath of the attempted assassinations of the President and Prime Minister on February 11, the visiting National Assembly President asked PM Socrates to commit more National Guard troops. He said Socrates had made no commitment. According to Bramao Ramos, Portugal is "stretched to the limit in terms of what we can deploy." CIA Flights ¶15. (C) Volker alerted Bramao Ramos that U.K. Foreign Secretary Miliband would announce in the House of Commons SIPDIS that day that the U.S. provided information recently that two detainees had transited through Diego Garcia in 2003, contrary to earlier denials. The PDAS said, upon further research and investigation, the USG realized the error and immediately informed the U.K. government. He said Portugal has done an exemplary job of handling unsubstantiated press allegations about its role in permitting rendition flights. Bramao Ramos noted that in testimony before parliament on February 17, he had explained the overflight clearance procedure. Bramao Ramos portrayed the relationship between allies as being based on trust, noting that "allies give information when they have it. We do not question your requests." Wage Survey ¶16. (C) In light of public criticism over a salary increase dispute for the U.S. Air Force's Portuguese workers at Lajes Air Field, the Ambassador stated concern over the potential ramifications of reopening the Work Regulations, pointing to benefits that could be eliminated in the process, such as food and transportation allowances. Bramao Ramos agreed that the dispute was a minor irritant when considering that the total cost of the wage difference is about 90 euros a person annually, but the fact that it is an election year in the Azores gives it particular prominence. He said he did not support reopening the Work Regulations, unless changes could be made only to the relevant sections. He restated his desire to find an "imaginative" solution that gets the issue off the Bilateral Commission's agenda and addresses the workers' complaints. Cuba ¶17. (C) Bramao Ramos speculated somewhat optimistically about Cuba's future in light of Fidel Castro's decision to step down, calling it an important first step. Volker expressed serious doubt that this portended any real change. Bramao Ramos agreed with Volker that only release of political prisoners and progress on other freedoms would demonstrate that Fidel's departure meant real change. He said Brazilian President Lula and Venezuelan President Chavez were instrumental figures in Cuba's transition and could have a positive influence. Volker strongly refuted that Chavez could be counted on to push the Cuban leadership on democratic reform, pointing that he had moved in the opposite direction in Venezuela. Comment ¶18. (C) Bramao Ramos has often strayed from his government's line on Venezuela, where he once served as Portuguese ambassador, and he appears to have a soft spot for Hugo Chavez. His views on Venezuela do not reflect the views of FM Amado, who earlier instructed him to refrain from advocating them. The political director's hand-wringing on Kosovo does reflect broad concern in the GOP about the timing of recognition. As we have reported previously, Lisbon's main goal is likely not to be in the vanguard of EU member states but very much in the middle of the pack. Stephenson