PORTUGUESE LAMENT ELUSIVENESS OF EU KOSOVO UNITY,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LISBON 000350 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2016 TAGS: PREL EUN PGOV MOPS PO ZL SUBJECT: PORTUGUESE LAMENT ELUSIVENESS OF EU KOSOVO UNITY, URGE CAUTION ON UKRAINE, GEORGIA NATO CANDIDACIES REF: A) STATE 13716 B) LISBON 251 Classified By: AMBASSADOR STEPHENSON, REASONS 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (C/NF) Summary. The Portuguese MFA political director said he expects the EU to take as long as a week or two to achieve a consensus EU reaction to a Kosovar declaration of independence. He said some member states have made preparations difficult, that final negotiations cannot take place until the declaration is made, and that a hoped-for EU umbrella statement is appearing increasingly unlikely. Portugal will "make positive signals" immediately after a Kosovar CDI, then will proceed to confer formal recognition subsequently, most likely within a month. The political director also affirmed his support for the NATO candidacies of Macedonia, Albania, and Croatia, but he warned that the GOP position would be that Georgia and Ukraine needed more time. End summary. Tough Going on Kosovo within EU -------------- ¶2. (C/NF) During a pre-Bilateral Commission lunch at the CMR on February 11, Portuguese MFA Political Director Vasco Bramao Ramos told the Ambassador he expects the European Union will need "a week or two" following a Kosovar declaration of independence in order to react formally. While this is a marked change from his own projection of 24 to 48 hours made in a meeting with us last week (reftel), Bramao Ramos said member states such as Cyprus, Slovakia, Spain, and Romania were making preparatory efforts difficult. He suggested that 10 days was explicable, even to the Kosovars. ¶3. (C/NF) According to Bramao Ramos, "things are not looking good" in the EU's efforts to secure member state consensus on a common position. The umbrella statement he had described to the Ambassador in their initial conversation (ref B) that would demonstrate EU unity while providing flexibility to member states to proceed at their own pace is appearing increasingly unlikely. Bramao Ramos said that both the EU and Portugal would "make positive sounds" immediately following a declaration, but final negotiations within the EU cannot take place until after the declaration is made. The political director insisted that "we can't react to something that hasn't happened." ¶4. (C/NF) Bramao Ramos said the EU's achievement of an ESDP mission for Kosovo was evidence that the EU was serious. He said the finances were in place, the participants had been identified, and the mission would deploy one or two months following the declaration. ¶5. (C/NF) Bramao Ramos said Portugal will not be among the first to recognize Kosovar independence. He reiterated earlier comments that Lisbon would send "positive signals" immediately after a CDI, then confer formal recognition later, perhaps within a month. The political director predicted that approximately half of member states would recognize Kosovo immediately after a CDI, while the other half would either never recognize or would do so only after some time. NATO Expansion -------------- ¶6. (C/NF) Bramao Ramos offered his view that the upcoming NATO summit should express support for the candidacies of Macedonia, Albania, and Croatia, but cautioned that Ukraine and Georgia were not ready for membership. The latter two needed more time to demonstrate their fulfillment of NATO standards, both on the military and governance fronts. He expressed concern that a large proportion of Ukraine's population (the ethnic Russians),"probably a majority," opposed NATO membership, and he made a plea for dealing very carefully with Georgia, given its "delicate" relationship with Russia. Comment -------------- ¶7. (C/NF) Bramao Ramos was decidedly less optimistic than on January 29 (ref B) about the EU's efforts to achieve consensus on the way forward. We have regularly underscored at all levels of the Portuguese government the dangers of a delayed reaction to a CDI, and the Ambassador will do so again in a one-on-one meeting with FM Amado on February 14 it was disappointing to hear that Portugal intends to wait longer than we had hoped to recognize Kosovo, but it is not terribly surprising, given the GOP's traditional hesitancy to be in the forefront on controversial issues. LISBON 00000350 002 OF 002 Stephenson