PORTUGAL SUPPORTS TOUGHER LINE ON BELARUS AT

C O N F I D E N T I A L LISBON 002641

SIPDIS

VILNIUS FOR MINSK

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2018
TAGS: BO GG RS PHUM PREL PGOV PO EUN
SUBJECT: PORTUGAL SUPPORTS TOUGHER LINE ON BELARUS AT
GAERC, OTHERWISE SUPPORTS CONSENSUS

REF: SECSTATE 108064

Classified By: Dana M. Brown, Pol-Econ Officer, Embassy Lisbon
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Portuguese MFA officials Isabel Ferreira and
Florbela Cardy stressed that Portugal and the EU agree with
the main points of reftel demarche on Zimbabwe, Georgia, and
Belarus. While Portugal plans to follow the EU consensus on
most votes, Cardy did mention that Portugal and the
Netherlands are currently in a minority pushing for a
continuation of restrictive measures on Belarus. In addition
to the reftel points, Cardy noted that Uzbekistan and Moldova
would be on the GAERC agenda and offered a preview on
Portugal's views. End summary.


2. (C) Zimbabwe. In response to reftel points on Zimbabwe,
MFA Africa Deputy Isabel Ferreira told us that the EU was
continuing to watch the power-sharing agreement closely to
make sure that the distribution of power in key ministries
establishes an actual coalition government. She said the EU
would reaffirm its support for Mbeki as a mediator and
release conclusions renewing calls for free movement for
NGOs. While Ferreira noted that the UK and the Netherlands
were pushing for additional EU restrictive measures, she said
Portugal wanted to wait at least until the end of the month
for further information on the ground reality. Ferreira said
the European Commission would also announce ten million euros
in aid to ease the humanitarian crisis at the GAERC meeting.


3. (C) Georgia. Turning to European issues, MFA Deputy EU
Correspondent Florbela Cardy responded that the situation was
stable in Georgia and that the European Monitoring Mission
(EUMM) was going smoothly. High Representative Javier Solana
sent a message out to EU member states noting that Russian
forces had agreed to withdraw from South Ossetia and Abkasia
by midnight on October 8, which Cardy mentioned was a
positive signal. She did not have information on whether
Portugal will be able to make a bilateral donation at the
October 22 donors' conference, but offered to send further
information when it becomes available. She predicted that
the ministers would begin to review the EU's relationship
with Russia -- a discussion that the French will take up
again at the December EU Council meeting.


4. (C) Belarus. Portugal and the Netherlands are among the
minority of member states pushing to maintain the visa ban
and restrictive measures at this time. Cardy expressed the
GOP's concern that member states are willing to reward the
modest progress that Belarus has made too soon. Of the three
measures that the EU sought, the Belorussians have only
completed "about a half of one," Cardy concluded. She
acknowledged that some EU partners feared that Belarus would
move in Russia's direction without timely praise.
Nevertheless, Portugal believes this is not the right time to
offer incentives for such modest progress.


5. (C) Uzbekistan. Cardy claimed that Portugal is not as
concerned with Uzbekistan as Belarus, and would have agreed
to vote just on conclusions, but the Netherlands pressed for
a discussion. According to Cardy, having the EU relax some
targeted measures would benefit private individuals and would
serve as a modest gesture of goodwill. She assured us that
no one was pushing to ease the arms embargo in place with
Uzbekistan.


6. (U) Moldova. The foreign ministers plan to sign a
declaration of intent to deepen relations with Moldova at
next week's GAERC. Cardy mentioned that Moldova could be
added as a European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) member and
enjoy some free trade agreements with the EU bloc. The EU
hopes this outreach will also serve to reinforce the
impression that they are engaged on the frozen conflict in
Transnistria.
STEPHENSON