PORTUGAL CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC AT SEPTEMBER 15-16

C O N F I D E N T I A L LISBON 002514 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/ERA AND AF E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2018 TAGS: YI TU GG RS PHUM PREL PGOV PO EUN SUBJECT: PORTUGAL CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC AT SEPTEMBER 15-16 GAERC REF: A. SECSTATE 96598 ¶B. SECSTATE 97574 Classified By: Dana M. Brown, Pol-Econ Officer, Embassy Lisbon Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Portugal has no plans to present or direct discussion at the September 15-16 GAERC meeting. MFA officials expressed cautious optimism about political developments in Zimbabwe and Belarus. They told us that the GOP fully supports EU efforts to stabilize the Somali coast and Georgia. End summary. ¶2. (C) Georgia: Deputy EU Correspondent Florbela Cardy in the Portuguese MFA told us that Portugal viewed the French-brokered agreement as a positive step and hoped that the ESDP mission would help stabilize the situation when it begins on October 1. Portugal plans to contribute either personnel or office equipment to the new ESDP mission and will be interested n hearing more about what other countries plan to send at the September 15 meeting before it decides what to offer. The ministers are likely to discuss logistical details over lunch, according to Cardy, since member states have already agreed the overall policy. When asked whether the EU was concerned about having Russian and EU personnel on the ground at the same time, she said Portugal was confident that Russia would respect the mission, given President Medvedev's assurances to Sarkozy. ¶3. (C) Zimbabwe: Portuguese Deputy Director for African Issues Isabel Ferreira reported that Portugal is pleased by the September 11 political accord and is looking for signs that Zimbabwe's opposition will be fully included in the executive decision-making process. Regarding sanctions, Ferreira noted that the EU had added another 12 people who had been directly connected to Zimbabwe's pre-election violence to its sanctions list and reported that the EU was attempting to ensure that sanctions were limited to those directly involved in political repression. Ferreira emphasized that Portugal would be interested in learning more about the U.S. listing of Zimbabwean officials to see if the EU should consider additional names. ¶4. (C) Ferreira stressed that Portugal was pleased that the Zimbabwe political accord had been orchestrated by other African nations without EU involvement. While other EU members were interested in a more active engagement during Zimbabwe's electoral crisis, Portugal was concerned that direct EU involvement would come across as heavy handed and advocated that African nations be allowed time to respond to the crisis; an approach which Portugal believes is now paying off. ¶5. (C) Somalia: The EU plans to sign conclusions on Somalia at the GAERC, including a statement reaffirming the EU's willingness to bolster Somalia's institution-building capacity. Ferreira reported that Portugal fully supports the anti-piracy efforts and views the new EU NAVCO mission as a way to protect important fishing and tourism ventures. ¶6. (C) Belarus: Cardy stated that Portugal was cautiously optimistic about the recent release of Belarus's political prisoners and hopes that the September 28 elections will be free and fair. If Belarus continues to inch in the right direction, Cardy predicted that the EU would be interested in holding a Troika meeting with Belarus as a reward. ¶7. (C) Comment: Cardy and Ferreira both reiterated Portugal's preference to use patience and carrots in hopes of eventually prompting nations to implement constructive policies. Nevertheless, given recent events in Georgia, it is interesting that GOP officials still express confidence in Medvedev's promises. End comment. STEPHENSON