PORTUGAL BRIEFS SENATOR GREGG ON RUSSIA, CAUCASUS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L LISBON 002379 NOFORN SIPDIS C O R R E C T E D COPY CAPTION E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/05/2018 TAGS: OVIP PREL GG AF RS IR UP PO KV EUN SUBJECT: PORTUGAL BRIEFS SENATOR GREGG ON RUSSIA, CAUCASUS, AFGHANISTAN, AND AFRICOM Classified By: CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR THOMAS STEPHENSON, REASONS 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (C/NF) Summary. Portuguese MOD State Secretary Joao Mira Gomes told Senator Judd Gregg (R, NH) that Russia's illegal actions in Georgia required a diplomatic solution in which the West needed to stand firm on principle (including Georgia's territorial integrity) and suspend military cooperation, while keeping the door open for political dialogue. He stressed that South Ossetia and Abkhazia were entirely separate cases from Kosovo. Regarding ISAF contributions, he said the second Portuguese OMLT was confirmed, but that he did not expect the redeployment of a QRF during the 2009 Portuguese election year. End summary. ¶2. (U) As part of his September 2-7 visit to Portugal, Senator Judd Gregg called on President of Parliament Jaime Gama and Portuguese Ministry of Defense (MOD) State Secretary (Deputy Secretary equivalent) Joao Mira Gomes on September 3. Ambassador also hosted Senator Gregg for lunch with Ministry of Foreign Affairs State Secretary Joao Cravinho September 2. Russia and the Caucasus -------------- ¶3. (C/NF) Mira Gomes expressed surprise at Russia's "provocative" decision to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia and noted that reports of Russia establishing a navy base in Abkhazia were problematic. Mira Gomes suggested that Russia had precipitately ensnared itself and that the West needed to help them find a way out. Recognition, he posited, made a negotiated solution much more difficult, but no less necessary, and that the UN General Assembly was an important venue for the effort. Mira Gomes specifically noted that Georgia and Kosovo were entirely different cases and that Russian action in Georgia was entirely contrary to international law. ¶4. (C/NF) In searching for a solution, Mira Gomes said that western institutions were on the right track. A strong stand on principles including statements of support for Georgia's territorial integrity, suspension of military cooperation, and the continuation of political dialogue are necessary components of a negotiated solution. He admitted that the EU needed "to get its act together," noting the difficulty of the task given the differing perceptions among the member states. As part of the continued political dialogue, Mira Gomes believed the next EU-Russia Summit, scheduled for November, would go forward as planned. ¶5. (C/NF) In response to Senator Gregg's question regarding the intent behind Russia's actions, Mira Gomes said that the Ukraine was more important than Georgia. Thus, the actions in Georgia may have been a preemptive strike. He opined that the Russian generals, pushed by Prime Minister Putin, were behind this, noting that personnel with local area experience and military equipment were put in place months in advance. With such a situation in place, Mira Gomes believed that Georgian President Saakashvili fell into a trap. Ambassador noted that the trap had been intentionally set and that Saakashvili had been forewarned. Mira Gomes reflected that there were several other trouble spots that Russia could exploit, including Nagorno-Karabakh and Transdniestria, and that Russia's continued control of its own breakaway regions like Chechnya was not assured. ¶6. (C/NF) Mira Gomes said that Russian action did not result from the decisions of the Bucharest NATO Summit and that membership action plans (MAP) would not have changed subsequent events. Mira Gomes stressed that now NATO must live up to its Bucharest commitments and that Russia could not suspend or delay NATO decisions. The proper moment for MAP decisions, he said, would be the 2009 NATO Summit. Russia, Iran, and International Terrorism -------------- ¶7. (C/NF) The particular reason it is important to maintain a political dialogue with Russia, said Mira Gomes, is Russia's importance on other topics, such as to counter Iran's nuclear ambitions. While he agreed with Ambassador's statement that a nuclear Iran was not in Russia's own interests, Mira Gomes added that Russian commercial interests in Iran were strong enough to displace Russia's longer term political and security interests. He said that, ironically, these same commercial interests were displeased with the actions in Georgia as it made commercial dealings with the West much more difficult. ¶8. (C/NF) Mira Gomes also suggested that Russia is an important actor in the struggle against international terrorism. For this reason, confrontational rhetoric against Russia was unhelpful. In addition to the frozen conflicts, Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan were too sensitive to lose Russian engagement and any or all of the Maghreb states could ignite. ¶9. (C/NF) Although Portugal is not a consumer of Russian gas, Mira Gomes noted the importance of such energy exports to EU member states in the east. In Senator Gregg's separate meeting with Parliamentary President Jaime Gama, Gama noted that the EU needs a network of energy suppliers, including Russia, other Caspian producers, North Sea, Algeria, and others in order to let competition work. Afghanistan and ISAF -------------- ¶10. (C/NF) Mira Gomes confirmed that Portugal would contribute a second Operational Mentoring and Liaison Team (OMLT) to ISAF operations in Afghanistan. The second OMLT has been identified and the MOD is working on the deployment timetable. Additionally, Mira Gomes said a Portuguese Air Force (PAF) C-130 is currently in Afghanistan and the MOD is exploring additional contributions, including a detachment of medical personnel and an extension of the C-130 deployment. ¶11. (C/NF) While the MOD explores additional contributions, Mira Gomes believed that the Portuguese Quick Reaction Force (QRF) that departed Afghanistan in August would not soon be replaced. He noted that the decision to withdraw the company-sized QRF was the unanimous decision of the government, the president, and the major parties in parliament. As 2009 is a Portuguese election year, Mira Gomes did not believe a new QRF would deploy before the elections, despite the eagerness of the uniformed services to do so. AFRICOM -------------- ¶12. (C/NF) Mira Gomes raised the subject of the new Africa Command (AFRICOM),noting Portugal's desire to cooperate with AFRICOM including potentially hosting command elements on Portuguese territory. While Mira Gomes lauded the idea behind AFRICOM, he lamented that its establishment had been handled poorly in regard to educating African governments and populations on AFRICOM's intent and structure. Comment -------------- ¶13. (C/NF) Mira Gomes speaks much more directly than many Portuguese officials and is not shy about voicing his own opinion. As the most influential policy-making official at the MOD, however, it is worth considering how his opinions may affect our own requests for cooperation. While we will continue pushing for the return of the QRF to Afghanistan, the USG can also usefully focus efforts on the deployment-without-caveats of additional OMLTs for the Afghan National Army as well as "POMLTs" for the Afghan National Police, the latter comprising Portugal's National Guard. STEPHENSON