REPORT OF RADICAL PROTESTS IN NOVEMBER

C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 001748 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/02/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER ASEC PINR PE SUBJECT: REPORT OF RADICAL PROTESTS IN NOVEMBER REF: LIMA 745 Classified By: Amb. P Michael McKinley for reasons 1.4b and d. ¶1. (C) Summary: In the run-up to the November APEC Summit, diverse political groups have announced plans for rallies and protests. Among these, the Lima newspaper Expreso recently published an article warning that a small ultra-nationalist fringe group linked to jailed radical leader Antauro Humala was planning potentially violent anti-government demonstrations in the provinces. Limited information available on Antaurist websites may support Expreso's claim, but Antauro's political representative told POLOFF he had not heard of any plans for violent rebellion. We view this threat as improbable but cannot completely discount it given Antauro's history of rebellion. Reassuringly, GOP security forces have prioritized security during APEC and have assured us that they are aware of this threat. Violent protests in the provinces would embarrass the GOP, but would not threaten APEC meetings in Lima. Ambassador McKinley will meet with the new Minister of the Interior to discuss GOP security efforts. End Summary. ¶2. (C) In the run-up to the APEC Summit in November, a variety of leftist unions, social movements, and parties have announced plans for rallies and protests, much as they did prior to the EU-Latin American summit in May 2008. In one recent protest threat, the sensationalist newspaper Expreso on October 20 published an article warning that ultra-nationalist supporters of jailed radical leader Antauro Humala planned to launch anti-government demonstrations in provincial Peru during the November APEC Summit. Vaguely citing "information to which Expreso had access", the article says that the ultra-nationalists -- called "ethnocacerists" -- planned to initiate protests on November 4th, in conjunction with the "Natonal Assembly of the Peoples" organized by the leftist union CGTP. Then on November 16th and 17th, according to the report, the ethnocacerists will attempt to capture police stations in Ayacucho, Apurimac, Junin, Puno, Madre de Dios, Moquegua, and Ucayali regions. The ethnocacerists reportedly are to launch their rebellion under the guise of the "Tahuantinsuyo National Liberation Army". ("Tahuantinsuyo" represents the four pillar states of the historical Inca Empire.) ¶3. (C) (Note: Antauro Humala and 160 followers launched a rebellion against President Alejandro Toledo in January 2005 by capturing the police station in the southern town Andahauylas. Four police officers and two rebels died in the subsequent standoff. Antauro Humala and his brother Ollanta Humala -- opposition leader and presidential candidate in 2006 -- launched a short-lived, non-violent rebellion against President Alberto Fujimori in 2000. For more on the Tahuantinsuyo National Liberation Army, see collateral reporting. End Note.) ¶4. (U) Limited information available on ethnocacerist websites may support Expreso's claims. On the website "etnocaceristas.galeon.com", a blogger called "Ayasupay" left the following threat: "This November we will overthrow the government...at the end of the year the ethnocacerists will overthrow you." In a mass email sent by "Ayasupay" from address "supaysinchi@hotmail.com" and found online, the author calls upon his compatriots "to prepare in the last months of 2008 for the third and definitive ethnonationalist insurgency of the Andean-Amazonian people." (Note: Presumably the first two "ethnonationalist" insurgencies were the Humala rebellions in 2000 and 2005. End Note.) ¶5. (C) Congressman Gustavo Espinoza -- Antauro Humala's political representative -- told POLOFF he had not heard of plans for violent rebellion in November, but admitted that Antauro does not tell him everything and that he could not discount the threat. Espinoza explained that Humala's movement has a minority of radical followers who call for violence against the government. He added, however, that these radicals are poorly organized and he doubted they could mount the broad action discussed in the article. (Note: Espinoza informed POLOFF of a violent ethnocacerist threat prior to the EU-LAC summit in Lima in May 2008 -- see Reftel. End Note.) Another contact reported that an Antauro supporter told him the ethnocacerists were planning a "popular uprising" in November, but that this would only involve peaceful protests and roadblocks. The ethnocacerist also mentioned a small group of about 30 radicals within the movement that advocates violence, but said they were not planning to assault any police stations until next year. Comment: A Kernel of Truth? -------------- ¶6. (C) Although the Expreso threat appears exaggerated and improbable, we cannot discount it entirely. Antauro Humala launched two similarly quixotic rebellions over the past decade (most recently in 2005),and his most radical followers openly advocate violence as a means to attaining power. Reassuringly, GOP security forces have prioritized security during APEC and have told us they are aware of this threat. Furthermore, new Prime Minister Yehude Simon is actively working to resolve social conflicts, and this week personally negotiated an end to a violent conflict in Sicuani, Cusco. Whatever happens, potentially violent protests in the provinces would embarrass the GOP, but likely would not threaten APEC meetings in Lima. MCKINLEY