REPORT OF RADICAL PROTESTS IN NOVEMBER

C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 001748

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/02/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER ASEC PINR PE
SUBJECT: REPORT OF RADICAL PROTESTS IN NOVEMBER

REF: LIMA 745

Classified By: Amb. P Michael McKinley for reasons 1.4b and d.


1. (C) Summary: In the run-up to the November APEC Summit,
diverse political groups have announced plans for rallies and
protests. Among these, the Lima newspaper Expreso recently
published an article warning that a small ultra-nationalist
fringe group linked to jailed radical leader Antauro Humala
was planning potentially violent anti-government
demonstrations in the provinces. Limited information
available on Antaurist websites may support Expreso's claim,
but Antauro's political representative told Poloff he had not
heard of any plans for violent rebellion. We view this
threat as improbable but cannot completely discount it given
Antauro's history of rebellion. Reassuringly, GOP security
forces have prioritized security during APEC and have assured
us that they are aware of this threat. Violent protests in
the provinces would embarrass the GOP, but would not threaten
APEC meetings in Lima. Ambassador McKinley will meet with
the new Minister of the Interior to discuss GOP security
efforts. End Summary.


2. (C) In the run-up to the APEC Summit in November, a
variety of leftist unions, social movements, and parties have
announced plans for rallies and protests, much as they did
prior to the EU-Latin American summit in May 2008. In one
recent protest threat, the sensationalist newspaper Expreso
on October 20 published an article warning that
ultra-nationalist supporters of jailed radical leader Antauro
Humala planned to launch anti-government demonstrations in
provincial Peru during the November APEC Summit. Vaguely
citing "information to which Expreso had access", the article
says that the ultra-nationalists -- called "ethnocacerists"
-- planned to initiate protests on November 4th, in
conjunction with the "Natonal Assembly of the Peoples"
organized by the leftist union CGTP. Then on November 16th
and 17th, according to the report, the ethnocacerists will
attempt to capture police stations in Ayacucho, Apurimac,
Junin, Puno, Madre de Dios, Moquegua, and Ucayali regions.
The ethnocacerists reportedly are to launch their rebellion
under the guise of the "Tahuantinsuyo National Liberation
Army". ("Tahuantinsuyo" represents the four pillar states of
the historical Inca Empire.)


3. (C) (Note: Antauro Humala and 160 followers launched a
rebellion against President Alejandro Toledo in January 2005
by capturing the police station in the southern town
Andahauylas. Four police officers and two rebels died in the
subsequent standoff. Antauro Humala and his brother Ollanta
Humala -- opposition leader and presidential candidate in
2006 -- launched a short-lived, non-violent rebellion against
President Alberto Fujimori in 2000. For more on the
Tahuantinsuyo National Liberation Army, see collateral
reporting. End Note.)


4. (U) Limited information available on ethnocacerist
websites may support Expreso's claims. On the website
"etnocaceristas.galeon.com", a blogger called "Ayasupay" left
the following threat: "This November we will overthrow the
government...at the end of the year the ethnocacerists will
overthrow you." In a mass email sent by "Ayasupay" from
address "supaysinchi@hotmail.com" and found online, the
author calls upon his compatriots "to prepare in the last
months of 2008 for the third and definitive ethnonationalist
insurgency of the Andean-Amazonian people." (Note:
Presumably the first two "ethnonationalist" insurgencies were
the Humala rebellions in 2000 and 2005. End Note.)


5. (C) Congressman Gustavo Espinoza -- Antauro Humala's
political representative -- told Poloff he had not heard of
plans for violent rebellion in November, but admitted that
Antauro does not tell him everything and that he could not
discount the threat. Espinoza explained that Humala's
movement has a minority of radical followers who call for
violence against the government. He added, however, that
these radicals are poorly organized and he doubted they could
mount the broad action discussed in the article. (Note:
Espinoza informed Poloff of a violent ethnocacerist threat
prior to the EU-LAC summit in Lima in May 2008 -- see Reftel.
End Note.) Another contact reported that an Antauro
supporter told him the ethnocacerists were planning a
"popular uprising" in November, but that this would only
involve peaceful protests and roadblocks. The ethnocacerist
also mentioned a small group of about 30 radicals within the
movement that advocates violence, but said they were not
planning to assault any police stations until next year.

Comment: A Kernel of Truth?
--------------

6. (C) Although the Expreso threat appears exaggerated and
improbable, we cannot discount it entirely. Antauro Humala
launched two similarly quixotic rebellions over the past
decade (most recently in 2005),and his most radical
followers openly advocate violence as a means to attaining
power. Reassuringly, GOP security forces have prioritized
security during APEC and have told us they are aware of this
threat. Furthermore, new Prime Minister Yehude Simon is
actively working to resolve social conflicts, and this week
personally negotiated an end to a violent conflict in
Sicuani, Cusco. Whatever happens, potentially violent
protests in the provinces would embarrass the GOP, but likely
would not threaten APEC meetings in Lima.
MCKINLEY