OLLANTA HUMALA CLAIMS HE CAN SAVE PERU FROM EXTREMISTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 001107 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/27/2018 TAGS:PGOV, PREL, PINR, PE SUBJECT: OLLANTA HUMALA CLAIMS HE CAN SAVE PERU FROM EXTREMISTS REF: LIMA 1081 Classified By: Amb. P Michael McKinley for reasons 1.b an... id: 159839 date: 6/26/2008 21:33 refid: 08LIMA1107 origin: Embassy Lima classification: CONFIDENTIAL destination: 08LIMA1081 header: VZCZCXYZ0000 PP RUEHWEB DE RUEHPE #1107/01 1782133 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 262133Z JUN 08 FM AMEMBASSY LIMA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8906 INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION PRIORITY 1998 RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA PRIORITY 5825 RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 7889 RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES PRIORITY 3412 RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 1184 RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ JUN 4903 RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO PRIORITY 9538 RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO PRIORITY 1955 RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO PRIORITY 1933 RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RUMIAAA/USCINCSO MIAMI FL PRIORITY -------------- header ends -------------- C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 001107 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/27/2018 TAGS:PGOV, PREL, PINR, PE SUBJECT: OLLANTA HUMALA CLAIMS HE CAN SAVE PERU FROM EXTREMISTS REF: LIMA 1081 Classified By: Amb. P Michael McKinley for reasons 1.b and d. ¶1. (C) Summary: Ambassador McKinley met with opposition Peruvian Nationalist Party (PNP) leader Ollanta Humala and his wife (and advisor) Nadine Heredia June 18 for a cordial two-hour discussion. Humala argued that the Garcia government is neglecting Peru's mounting social concerns and needs to find pragmatic solutions to prevent the spread of conflict. He said the recent protests in Moquegua over the allocation of mining royalties (canon) broke out after the government first ignored the problem and then lost control. Humala called for "pragmatic" solutions to mounting social conflicts in the mining sector and proposed to increase taxes on mining profits and to improve mining canon distribution among regions. Asked about the possible impact on juridical security and investment, Ollanta said companies have no security if social conflicts can shut down production. Humala claimed to favor free trade but lamented the irony that the US Congress had done more to protect Peru's labor and environmental norms in the FTA framework than had Peru's own Congress. Turning to constitutional reform, Ollanta said the 1993 Constitution was illegitimate and called for the �A;return of the 1979 Constitution. Ambassador McKinley closed the conversation by addressing Humala's concerns about the New Horizons military-humanitarian mission currently in progress in Ayacucho. On June 25th, the Ambassador saw Humala again at a diplomatic function, and Humala endorsed the Ambassador's upcoming trip to Ayacucho to explain New Horizons to a skeptical audience, although he made clear that he stuck to his concerns. End Summary. Cordial Atmospherics -------------- ¶2. (C) Ambassador McKinley received opposition Peruvian Nationalist Party (PNP) leader Ollanta Humala and his wife Nadine Heredia at his residence on June 18th for a cordial and broad-ranging two-hour conversation. Ollanta sat relaxed and attentive throughout, making his points in a calm, non-confrontational tone. Nadine -- the PNP's Secretary for International Relations and effectively Ollanta's "Chief of Staff" and principal political advisor -- sat on the edge of her seat with a serious and guarded facial expression at first, intermittently joining the discussion to clarify Ollanta's comments. She let down her guard and warmed as the discussion drew to a close. Humala: I Can Save Peru From Radicalism -------------- ¶3. (C) Humala argued throughout the conversation that Alan Garcia's government is neglecting Peru's mounting social concerns and that, absent pragmatic solutions, regional conflicts like the recent violent protests in Moquegua region would spread. Ollanta expressed concern about this prospect and warned that dangerous, anti-systemic radicals could ultimately threaten the stability of the state. Declaring himself "a nationalist, not a leftist", Humala said that he represents the pragmatic change that Peru needs. (Comment: Humala did not mention credible reports that he often seeks to stir up, for political gain, the very social conflict he told us he wants to prevent. End Comment.) Conflict in Moquegua Region -------------- ¶4. (C) Humala cited the recent conflict in Moquegua over regional mining canon allocations to underscore his general thesis on the government's neglect of social problems. Moquegua's leadership, he said, had repeatedly presented their complaints to the government during the previous year but received no response. The government finally paid attention after the first week of protests when roadblocks began to cause shortages in neighboring Tacna region. He warned that Moquegua's elected leaders had lost credibility with the local populace because of their inability to win concessions from Lima, leading to the emergence of more radical "informal" leaders. This complicated negotiating a definitive end to the conflict because it was unclear with whom the GOP could successfully negotiate, creating a messy situation that could replicate itself in other regions. (Note: The GOP eventually resolved the Moquegua conflict by offering concessions to the protestors. End Note) Raise Mining Profit Taxes -------------- ¶5. (C) Humala said the best way to avert conflict was to increase mandatory profit sharing (utilidades) by mining companies that are making bundles right now with mineral prices sky high and to spread the benefits of the windfall widely -- to workers, communities, the regions and the whole country. Recent congressional negotiations on a bill that would raise the cap on mining profits taken by mine workers did not resolve the underlying structural problem, he said. It rewarded only a narrow band of full-time formal mining workers, not the majority subcontracted workers and others, and therefore exacerbated the differences between them. Moreover, in rewarding full-time mining employees, it took money away from the regions. Mining companies agreed with this solution because they care narrowly about their own workers, he said, but the government needed to concern itself with the broader interests of all. In this sense, the government would need to mediate among the competing interests of the workers, the mining regions, and the Peruvian people, which he repeated would require raising the profit taxes on these companies. (Comment: In this and other instances, Humala cast himself in the role of impartial statesman rather than rabble-rousing opposition leader. End Comment.) Juridical Security, Foreign Investment, Free Trade -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) The Ambassador responded to Ollanta's mining sector proposals by emphasizing the importance of juridical security to attract foreign investment. Humala acknowledged the importance of juridical security and foreign investment, and raised the example of the Melia Hotel chain in Cuba. He said he once asked the chain's CUBA manager why they had so many hotels on the island, and the manager responded that they felt safe because they knew that Cuba's laws never change. (Note: We shared a laugh at the irony. End Note.) Humala then argued that companies in Peru today only enjoy juridical security on paper. What good are legal norms if social conflicts halt production? He insisted that if the government followed his model, juridical security would in fact be more sustainable. ¶7. (C) Ambassador McKinley raised the importance of free trade to Peru's future. Countries throughout the world are competing for investment and markets in a process that cannot be stopped and that far transcends commercial relations between Peru and the U.S., he said. Peru can either stand aside and watch or jump in and benefit. Arguing that he is not a leftist, Humala accepted the importance of trade but said it more important that it be "equitable" than free. As far as the bilateral free trade agreement went, he said that Peru would never be able compete with the U.S. in a host of areas and feared that Peru's potential to develop critical national industries would be undermined as a result. Both agreed to disagree on this issue. Humala continued by pointing out that FTA conventions on labor and the environment, which were generally positive, had been inserted thanks to pressure by the US Congress. It was ironic, he noted, that the U.S. congress had done more to represent the interests of Peruvian workers and the environment in this case than had Peru's own congress or government. Constitutional Reform -------------- ¶8. (C) Turning to constitutional reform -- a topic recently debated in Congress (Ref A) -- Ollanta claimed that the 1993 Constitution lacked legitimacy because it was written by Fujimori-era criminals and approved in a referendum marked by fraud. Humala said the piecemeal reforms proposed and rejected in Congress last week will not suffice and that his party proposed returning to the 1979 Constitution. He said he was calling for a referendum on the 1979 Constitution because the public supports such a change, and observed that the debate over the constitution had caused serious fractures in Congress and within the ruling APRA party itself. Humala said he will continue pushing the issue and accused the President of reneging on his campaign promise to return to the 1979 document. (Note: According the recent polls, fewer than 20% of Peruvians favor a return to the 1979 Constitution. End Note.) New Horizons -------------- ¶9. (C) The Ambassador and Humala closed with an in depth discussion of the New Horizons bilateral military-humanitarian mission currently underway in Ayacucho region. (Note: The Humala-funded La Primera newpaper and several PNP Congresspeople have been harshly critical of the project and have accused the USG of planning to establish a military base to replace the Manta FOL. End Note) The Ambassador explained that the three-month mission would has primarily humanitarian goals -- performing surgeries, building schools, digging wells -- and that at the end, US troops will all return home. He emphasized that it was a bilateral exercise, that everything had been closely coordinated with and vetted by the GOP, and that the Peruvian military and police had lead responsibility for force protection and security. Contrary to some inflammatory media reports, he said, US weapons were being warehoused under lock and key. ¶10. (C) Humala then asked a series of pointed questions about the exercise: Why did participating doctors and engineers have to be uniformed military rather than civilians? The Ambassador responded that the mission was also intended to support the training of Peruvian and U.S. military personnel to deal with natural and other disasters, a capability which other organizations lacked. Why was the mission located on the edge of a narcotics-producing region in a sensitive zone of historical conflict -- and what would the US do if an American soldier or a Peruvian civilian was accidentally injured or killed? The Ambassador responded that we believed in the Peruvian government's ability to provide security and were working carefully to ensure the safety of Americans and Peruvians alike. Humala then noted the imminent closing of the Manta FOL in Ecuador (claiming that President Correa had told him the decision was definitive),and asked about U.S. intentions to establish a successor to Manta somewhere in Peru. Citing historical examples, the Ambassador noted that the potential closing of the Manta FOL does not mean we necessarily must open a new base in some other country, and reiterated that the U.S. has no intention to establish a base in Peru. Comment: A Positive Meeting -------------- ¶11. (C) Although we probably did not change Humala's opinions on the key issues, the dialogue was cordial and a level of trust was built. In comments to the press while traveling in Ayacucho later that week that faithfully reflected the spirit and content of the exchange, Humala stated that, although there was reason for concern about New Horizons, the U.S. Ambassador had promised him that US troops were in Ayacucho temporarily and would return to the U.S. when the exercise ended. Ambassador McKinley saw Humala again at a diplomatic function on June 25th, and in a friendly conversation Humala endorsed the Ambassador's upcoming trip to Ayacucho to explain New Horizons to a skeptical public. Humala also mentioned that he had met and posed for photographs with an independent American missionary/medical team in the area. Humala added that one focus of protests in Ayacucho on July 8th - 9th --part of a broader national strike -- would be the presence of US troops. (Note: We have asked New Horizons to stand down on July 8-9 as a precaution. End Note.) MCKINLEY =======================CABLE ENDS============================