MALAWI'S 2008-09 BUDGET: STUCK IN PARLIAMENT, BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LILONGWE 000415 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/16/2018 TAGS: EFIN ECON EAID MI SUBJECT: MALAWI'S 2008-09 BUDGET: STUCK IN PARLIAMENT, BUT TECHNICALLY SOUND REF: A. LILONGWE 365 ¶B. LILONGWE 366 LILONGWE 00000415 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Economic Officer D. Daley pursuant to 1.4c and d. 1.(SBU) SUMMARY. In May, the GOM presented to parliament a 2008-09 budget reflecting an almost 25 percent increase over 2007-08 actual expenditures. Supported by increased pledges of donor grants and fairly robust projections of increased domestic revenue, the overall budget does not appear to threaten Malawi's recent progress on macroeconomic stability. Given that the current budget covers an election year, it is not surprising that several measures (such as civil service wage increases) seemed calculated to have a broad popular appeal. Nevertheless, the GOM's intention to continue paying down its domestic debt shows commendable fiscal discipline which was recently highlighted by IMF approval of an expanded PRGF program. The 2008-09 budget includes a large increase to the GOM's signature - and politically popular - fertilizer subsidy program. The increases will cover part of the rising costs of the inputs, but market prices are likely to drive the overall bill well beyond budgeted levels. While approval of the budget has been delayed due to the dispute over Section 65 of the Constitution, parliament is likely approve the current budget bill eventually with only minor changes. In the meantime, Finance Minister Gondwe has indicated he has fiscal authority to keep the GOM running. End summary. Expenditures And Revenues Both Up Significantly -------------- -- 2.(U) The GOM's draft 2008-09 budget includes total expenditures and net lending of USD 1.6 billion. This reflects an increase of almost 25 percent over 2007-08 actual expenditures. One-off expenses for the population census and the May 2009 general election account for over 20 percent of this increase. Significant increases to the ministries of Agriculture and Health, as well as programs in nutrition, HIV/AIDS and the National AIDS Commission account for the majority of the remaining increases. 3.(U) The draft budget is based upon projected revenue and grants of USD 1.46 billion. This also reflects a substantial increase (almost 20 percent) over 2007-08. More than half of this increase is based upon increased grant pledges from the donor community. As the budget makes use of only already pledged grant money, this aspect of government resource estimates can be considered relatively robust. (Comment: In 2007-08 grants received exceeded pledges by over USD 43 million. End Comment). The projected increase of USD 106 million in domestic revenue is less certain, although over the past four years actual revenues have annually exceeded target revenue. No Significant Change In Resource Balance -------------- 4.(U) With grants expected to increase more than domestic revenue in 2008-09, the share of the budget that is donor-funded will increase from 41 to 43 percent. Given that the budget uses grant figures based on actual donor pledges, this is more indicative of growing donor support than any GOM design. Lean Pork -------------- 5.(U) With national elections scheduled for May 2009, it is not surprising to find measures in the current budget that might be characterized as pork. Indeed, the Ministry of Irrigation and Water Development has seen its budget increase 50 percent, with the bulk of the total devoted to a development program that will include small irrigation dams and nearly 300 boreholes. In his budget speech Minister of Finance Goodall Gondwe also highlighted programs to support rural development and the social sector. Also included are large increases for civil service pay, honoraria for traditional authorities (village chiefs),and a higher threshold income required before personal taxes must be paid. One of the largest increases is a USD 23 million boost to the fertilizer/input subsidy program, one of the government's most popular and widely-acclaimed programs. 6.(U) Apart from the input subsidy program, most of these initiatives represent relatively small elements of the budget as a whole. Increases in payments to civil service and traditional authorities this year are continuations of initiatives begun in previous years. While some elements of the 2008-09 budget were most likely designed in anticipation of the upcoming election year, the overall impact appears to be relatively restrained. LILONGWE 00000415 002.2 OF 003 Government Committed to Debt Reduction -------------- 7.(U) Although the 2008-09 budget anticipates a deficit of over USD 140 million, the GOM anticipates drawing on existing external loan facilities for more than this amount. This will allow it to continue paying down its domestic debt by almost USD 12 million. Health Gets Another Shot In The Arm -------------- 8.(U) Already representing one of the largest shares of GOM expenditures, the health sector in 2008-09 received some of the largest increases. The Ministry of Health alone received an increase of USD 38 million. Another USD 40 million increase will go to nutrition programs, HIV/AIDS and the National AIDS Commission. The health sector is one in which the donor community is particularly active, and it is likely that a significant share of these increases reflect sector-specific increases in donor funding. Education and Infrastructure Get Lip Service -------------- 9.(U) Although Minister Gondwe in his budget speech highlighted GOM initiatives in road construction and education, actual budget allotments paint a more mixed picture. Capitol expenses for roads have actually decreased from 2007-08 expenditures, although much of this can be attributed to reclassifying maintenance costs as recurring expenses. Similarly, while overall expenditure on education has increased, the budget line for primary education has actually gone down 22 percent. Investment Incentives -------------- 10.(U) In addition to line items for public sector expenditures, the 2008-09 budget also includes a range of tax breaks as incentives for private sector investment. An across-the-board reduction of the VAT tax from 17.5 percent to 16.5 percent is aimed at keeping Malawi's tax burden below the Southern African Development Community (SADC) average. The new budget proposes to eliminate the VAT entirely on manufacturing and construction equipment, and to remove duties on a variety of capital goods for the power sector, telecomms, mining, water utilities, dairy and fish farming, and petroleum storage facilities. These measures expand on tax breaks from past years for capital goods in the agricultural, manufacturing and tourism sectors. These incentives reflect a broad-gauge effort to attract investment and to expand existing industries and infrastructure. Fertilizer Subsidy: Fiscal Impact Huge -------------- 11.(U) Some of the largest increases in the 2008-09 budget, as mentioned, can be found in the GOM's signature agricultural input subsidy program. This program, which focuses mostly on fertilizer and to a lesser extent seed subsidies, is seen by the GOM as one of its great successes and forms the cornerstone of its food security program. It also dominates the budget, with the Ministry of Agriculture consuming fully 14 percent of the total budget, with most of this going to the subsidy program. 12.(C) Although large increases have been factored into the budget to account for the rise of fertilizer costs, it remains to be seen if these will be adequate given rapidly increasing global prices for fertilizer. With the maize harvest coming shortly before election time in May, the government will want to do all it can to ensure a good crop next year, and is unlikely to scale back on the quantities of fertilizer subsidies. At the same time, it will be politically difficult for the government to raise the cost to consumers of the subsidized fertilizer. Indeed, the GOM has committed to continuing the program with quantities comparable to past years and at unchanged prices. With a tight global fertilizer market, the final bill for the subsidy program could easily balloon well beyond even the budgeted increase. Minister Gondwe has reportedly speculated that the final cost could be over 150 percent of the budgeted figure. The Budget As Bargaining Chip -------------- 13.(C) According to opposition Member of Parliament and United Democratic Front (UDF) shadow finance minister Friday LILONGWE 00000415 003.2 OF 003 Jumbe, there are no serious issues with the government's proposed budget. Although Jumbe took issue with certain details of the budget, and complained of the government's past failings to deliver what it promised in the budget, he insisted that it would pass in a matter of days if the government would agree to allow implementation of Section 65 (Ref B). Lacking such agreement, Jumbe said that the opposition would not allow the budget to be passed. He speculated, however, that the government may not really be interested in having the budget actually pass. A budget approved by parliament would impose some accountability on the government, making it more difficult to dispense political patronage as the election draws closer. Finance Minister Gondwe stated on July 15 that he has fiscal authority to keep spending to keep the GOM running for at least several months into fiscal year 2008-9. IMF Gives GOM a Passing Grade -------------- 14.(U) Meeting for its sixth and final review of Malawi's performance under a three-year Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF),the International Monetary Fund commended the GOM's performance and authorized the release of the final tranche of funds available under the arrangement. Further, the IMF Executive Board agreed to increase the total funds available under the program by USD 16.9 million to help address balance of payment needs resulting from higher fuel and fertilizer prices. Comment -------------- 14.(SBU) In most respects, Malawi's proposed 2008-09 budget is reasonable and appears to be largely acceptable to the parliamentary opposition. Despite the fact that 2009 is an election year in Malawi, the budget as presented is not fiscally irresponsible. Despite this, the political impasse in Parliament is likely to prevent meaningful action on the budget for some time. More worrisome in the long run is the GOM's apparently open-ended commitment to a program of heavily subsidized agricultural inputs. This public commitment - from which it will be difficult to retreat in an election year - has the potential to overextend government spending. The IMF review reflects a vote of confidence in the GOM, and its decision to increase funding will certainly help in the immediate term. The PRGF, however, is still a loan, despite its concessional terms, and cannot resolve questions of the long-term sustainability of the subsidy program in particular. Nonetheless, taken as a whole, the GOM budget represents a serious effort to extend President Mutharika's so far successful record of prudent fiscal management and investments in development. SULLIVAN