MALAWI: FERTILIZER SUBSIDIES USED FOR POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LILONGWE 000160 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF/S - ELIZABETH PELLETREAU MCC FOR DEIDRA FAIR E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/11/2018 TAGS: PGOV EAID MI SUBJECT: MALAWI: FERTILIZER SUBSIDIES USED FOR POLITICAL GAIN REF: LILONGWE 94 LILONGWE 00000160 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: POLITICAL OFFICER JOHN LETVIN FOR REASON 1.4 (D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Under Malawi's fertilizer subsidy program, coupons were supposed to be distributed by Ministry of Agriculture officials only to the poorest 1.5 million households. There are a number of indications, however, that one of President Mutharika's signature programs has been used by GOM ministers to gain political favor in their constituencies. Accusations of political manipulation of the program came to light after former Minister of National Defense Bob Khamisa admitted to journalists that all government ministers were given 2000 coupons to distribute in their districts by the president. There are currently no investigations against ministers, but the ACB has opened a general investigation into subsidy coupon distribution. Reports so far suggest that only about 40,000 out of 1.5 million coupons were distributed by ministers, but the perception that government supporters receive preferential treatment can be a powerful motivation when it comes time to vote. A donor-funded evaluation of the subsidy program revealed that in the prior year program, 44% of subsidized fertilizer went to the richest third of Malawian farmers while the poorest third received only 23% -- a relatively inefficient use of scarce GOM resources -- but the program remains a powerful selling point for President Mutharika and will likely be increased in the 2008/2009 budget. This is, regrettably, indicative of an increasing trend toward use of government programs and regulatory clout to transfer resources toward voters to increase the chances of success for President Mutharika and his party in the 2009 national elections. End summary. Khamisa Scandal Reveals Political Abuse of Subsidy -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) In December 2007, then-Minister of National Defense Bob Khamisa was implicated in a fertilizer subsidy coupon scandal after police arrested an opposition party politician for allegedly selling 400 fertilizer coupons. The accused, UDF executive council member Philip Bwanali, claimed he was given the coupons by Minister Khamisa. Khamisa came to the defense of Bwanali and publicly admitted he had provided the coupons to him. Khamisa further said that the 400 coupons were part of 2000 coupons he received from the president. Khamisa was originally elected on a UDF ticket in 2004 but later crossed the floor to join President Mutharika's DPP and was named Minister of National Defense in May 2007. Khamisa was fired from his position as Minister of National Defense on February 8 (reftel A). Most observers attribute his dismissal directly to the embarrassment the coupon scandal brought to the president and the DPP, which was compounded by the fact that Khamisa gave the coupons to an opposition member (who sold them) instead of to the intended DPP supporters for free distribution. Subsidy Coupon Scheme Criticized from the Start -------------- -- ¶3. (SBU) Under the government plan, Ministry of Agriculture officials distributed coupons that entitle bearers to purchase fertilizer at a heavily subsidized price. The subsidy was originally planned to be given to only the poorest 1.5 million households in Malawi for 2007, but problems in the registration of households and the distribution of coupons led to popular frustration and shortages. (Comment: We believe the registration process overshot the 1.5 million target by roughly 500,000 households. Perhaps as many as another 3.5 million households were led to believe that they were entitled to the subsidy. Furthermore, each subsidized household should have received 1 bag of seed and 2 bags of fertilizer, but to meet the increased demand from overregistration, these subsidy bundles were often split with a household getting just one bag of fertilizer. End Comment.) At the outset of the subsidy program in 2005, Malawi Congress Party (MCP) leaders decried the coupon system as being open to abuse and manipulation and instead suggested the use of farmers' clubs for distribution. UDF leaders proposed a universal subsidy on fertilizer rather than a complicated registration and distribution system. The Bwanali arrest and Khamisa admission vindicated opposition concerns about potential abuse of the coupon system. Deputy Minister of Agriculture Bintony Kutsaira publicly denied Khamisa's claims that government ministers had been given 2000 coupons each to distribute to DPP supporters, but press accounts subsequently identified LILONGWE 00000160 002.2 OF 003 additional ministers distributing coupons after Kutsaira's denials. More Ministers Implicated -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Shortly after Khamisa's admission, media reports alleged Deputy Minister of Energy and Mines Roy Commsy distributed fake coupons in his constituency. Commsy reportedly gave 2000 coupons to executive members of the DPP in his district but one recipient complained to the press after a fertilizer distributor refused to accept the coupons Commsy had given him, claiming the coupons were fake. While Commsy denied distributing any coupons, the news story was reported (somewhat surprisingly) by The Guardian newspaper, owned by President Mutharika's family. ¶5. (SBU) During the first week of January, former Minister of Health Marjorie Ngaunje was also accused in The Guardian of distributing fertilizer coupons to supporters from her home. Ngaunje is locked in a battle with the DPP governor for her district who plans to compete for her seat in parliament in ¶2009. Complaints came from DPP supporters who claimed Ngaunje was only giving coupons to those who would support her and not to DPP backers in general. Mutharika also dismissed Ngaunje from the cabinet on February 8. Current Minister of Health and former Minister of Youth Development and Sports Khumbo Kachali also came under fire in January from other members of parliament for distributing coupons twice in his own constituency. Despite opposition and media demands for President Mutharika, who also serves as Minister of Agriculture, to designate a full-time Minister of Agriculture to deal with the coupon chaos, Mutharika retained the position and instead made the deputy minister the fall guy, replacing Kutsaira with Frank Mwenefumbo. ¶6. (C) Emboffs verified media claims about ministers distributing coupon through contacts in the mininsters' home constituencies. Of particular note was confirmation from a DPP secretary in Mzimba North, the constituency of Minister of Finance Goodall Gondwe, that the highly respected Gondwe had given DPP staff in Mzimba fertilizer coupons and asked them not to reveal the source. There were also press accounts at the time that Gondwe had sent the coupons to the agricultural development staff (not/not the party) for distribution through the normal channels to eligible beneficiaries. (comment: we want to believe the second version of this story, since this is what Gondwe told the Ambassador directly. end comment.) Donors Fund Seeds but Not Fertilizer -------------- ¶7. (SBU) The European Union, World Bank, Norway, and Britain's Department for International Development (DFID) contributed approximately 800 million MK (5.7 million USD) toward seed subsidies that many distributors combined into a bundle that was sold with the subsidized fertilizer. The GOM budgeted an additional 10.7 billion MK (76.4 million USD) toward funding the subsidized fertilizer. Fertilizer subsidy coupons allowed holders to purchase two 50 kg bags of fertilizer for 900 MK (6.43 USD) compared to an average retail price of 4100 MK (29.29 USD). USAID co-funded an evaluation of the program with DFID in 2007 but did not contribute to the subsidy. The evaluation, which refers to last year's program not/not the program for this crop year, revealed that 44% of subsidized fertilizer went to the richest third of Malawian farmers while the poorest third received only 23%. The report cited factors such as smaller landholdings among the poor that enabled a single bag of fertilizer to be shared among multiple households as being the primary driver for the skewed distribution, but also found that the proximity of a farmer to the residence of an MP to be another key determinant of who received subsidies in the southern region of Malawi, the main battleground between the DPP and opposition UDF. DFID has already indicated to USAID that it will slowly exit assisting targeted subsidies and instead seek to increase private sector involvement through support of management systems such as futures markets and weather insurance. (comment: This has been, and continues to be, the U.S. position all along. end comment.) DPP Desperately Seeking Grassroots Support -------------- ¶8. (C) Comment: The DPP is a minority governing party that is trying desperately to develop its grass-roots structures LILONGWE 00000160 003.2 OF 003 before it faces national elections in 2009. It faces two established parties with strong regional bases, and will likely continue to use the financial advantages that control over the national budget gives the party to boost its electoral prospects. We are now seeing a pattern of government attempts to "jawbone" and bully higher farmgate prices for basic crops, particularly those purchased by foreign buyers for export markets, including tobacco and cotton. Since Mutharika founded the DPP in 2005, government development projects have favored constituencies where the member of parliament has joined the DPP. Mutharika also has used ministerial positions as an enticement to lure MPs from their original parties. The use of government-controlled fertilizer coupons is just the latest extension of this strategy. In the continuing policy debate over the value of targeted subsidies such as Malawi's fertilizer subsidy, the misuse of these subsidies as a tool for the ruling party to gain a political advantage over rivals is often overlooked. Reports so far suggest that only about 40,000 out of 1.5 million coupons were diverted for political purposes, but in a nation where memories of the last famine are still fresh, the perception that government supporters receive preferential treatment in the form of cash equivalents can be a powerful motivation when it comes time to vote. End Comment. EASTHAM