VMOD VARGAS: "WE WILL NOT FIRE ON BOLIVIANS"

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 000720

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/02/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: VMOD VARGAS: "WE WILL NOT FIRE ON BOLIVIANS"

REF: LA PAZ 694

Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) During a March 27 meeting with POLOFF and MILGP
Commander, Vice Minister of Defense (recently Armed Forces
Commander) Wilfredo Vargas registered disappointment with
"the government" for not concluding a peaceful negotiated end
to the opposition-GOB standoff. He said the military does
not enjoy being in the middle of what is a political
stand-off. He referred to the Santa Cruz referendum as
illegal and product of the non-elected civic committee, but
unequivocally said there will be no military crackdown before
or after May 4. "Firing on our own people, forget about it.
We will not fire on Bolivians."


2. (C) Vargas said the only military involvement he foresees
is separating warring social groups. Vargas said that
isolated clashes between supporters of the government and the
opposition were inevitable and beyond the control of either
side, although both sides will disassociate themselves from
the violence.

Santa Cruz is the Big Prize
--------------


3. (C) Vargas said the government is not against the "idea of
autonomy," only the "key" Santa Cruz referendum, which it
considers extreme, undemocratic, and illegal. He commented
that the referenda would likely win in Santa Cruz, Beni, and
Pando, but that the campesino vote in Tarija is being
underestimated. He mentioned the government considers Sucre
and Cochabamba City as being isolated outposts of opposition
surrounded by government supporters in Chuquisaca and
Cochabamba departments, respectively. Vargas asserted the
government does not feel as threatened about autonomy
movements in these two cities because civic movements there
are easily contained and safely tucked away in GOB
strongholds.

GOB Fear of the Armed Forces
--------------


4. (C) Jorge Caballero, Cabinet Director for the Vice
Minister of Foreign Relations, told POLOFF April 1 that the
government is ultimately afraid of the armed forces and will
not push them too hard to intervene in Santa Cruz, least it
bite back with a coup. "The government needs the armed
forces; the armed forces do not need the government."
Caballero said the government will instead maintain a public
veneer of military obedience with vague statements by senior
leaders in support of the constitution and national unity in
order to play on opposition fears of a military crackdown on
autonomy efforts. Although Caballero was alarmed about more
specific comments made by Armed Forces General Luis Trigo
last week that the military would act "very energetically"
against "anyone who talks about the disintegration of
Bolivia," ultimately he discounted the comments as empty
rhetoric. "It's a long way from La Paz to Santa Cruz."
Meanwhile, the Morales administration will work on bolstering
military loyalty with bribes to its commanders, which
Caballero thought was poor strategy, as it breeds contempt in
lower ranks.

Retired Officers Sound Off Against Politicized Military Use
-------------- --------------


5. (U) The Bolivian Association of Retired Officers voiced
its opposition March 25 to the government's alleged misuse of
the military in social roles and its concern about the future
use of Venezuelan troops in Bolivian domestic disputes. The
association repeated its complaints March 26, elaborating
that it had to take a public stand against President Morales'
politicized use of the armed forces because "these are things
the high command cannot talk about." Association President
retired Vice Admiral Waldo Nava urged the high command to
tell Morales "this is not our mission."

Comment
--------------


6. (C) Our DAO, MILGP, and ECOPOL sections are being deluged
by calls from active-duty and retired officers. The military
rumor mill is spinning out a variety of inconsistent and
sometimes contradictory conspiracy theories; everything from
a military coup to surgical arrests of opposition leaders to
passive-aggressively carving off part of the Media Luna as a
10th department (reftel). We have been clearly indicating
that the U.S. Government views democratic means as the only
legitimate way to change governments. We find no coherent
plan or strategy amidst all these competing conspiracy
theories and are urging everyone to respect the
constitutional order. A divided and confused government
ensures an ad-hoc method of dealing with the opposition's
steadfast march to autonomy. The opposition has seized the
initiative, inertia rules in a vacuum, and the most likely
government reaction remains inaction. Despite the influx of
intriguing rumors, we continue to believe sitting it out in
their barracks to be the most likely plan of action for the
military on May 4. End Comment.
GOLDBERG