FLOODS BRING TRUCE, AND DELAYS POLITICAL CONFLICT

UNCLAS LA PAZ 000302 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL BL SUBJECT: FLOODS BRING TRUCE, AND DELAYS POLITICAL CONFLICT REF: LA PAZ 266 ¶1. (U) The Bolivian government and opposition have called a truce in their political conflict so that the country can focus on disaster-relief for flood-stricken areas. Following the suggestions of several political figures, President Morales urged the opposition on February 12 to halt any actions during the country's time of crisis. Bolivia's National Democratic Council (CONALDE) -- consisting of the autonomy-seeking eastern and lowland states -- responded by announcing a postponement of any civic actions for up to 15 days. The opposition-led departments (states) had threatened widespread demonstrations and road blockades if the Morales government did not restore funding cuts by February 13. ¶2. (SBU) The opposition apparently realized that street protests and road blocks would have appeared distasteful during the national emergency. The Prefect of opposition led Santa Cruz department Ruben Costas acknowledged this when he stated the country must not be in the midst of a political conflict, "while we are drowning." Senate President Oscar Ortiz (PODEMOS, Santa Cruz) in describing his work to reach a law declaring the current floods a national disaster stated, "I believe this is not the time for political confrontations, this a moment for unity, to reach agreement, and (it is) with this spirit we will work . . ." ¶3. (SBU) Despite the so-called truce, both sides continue to level charges against the other. Members of Morales' ruling Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) have stated they will begin impeachment proceedings against Ruben Costas and members of the Santa Cruz Electoral Court, arguing they had violated the constitution with their effort to organize a referendum (scheduled May 4) on Santa Cruz's autonomy statutes. While the opposition appears to agree with the MAS argument that only Congress can authorize such a referendum, opposition Senator Luis Vasquez (PODEMOS, La Paz) has stated that Santa Cruz' action was necessary given the MAS' illegal machinations in approving its new constitution within the Constituent Assembly. Meanwhile the opposition claims the government is using flood relief for its own political ends )- alleging the government directs aid to certain municipalities and not others based on political allegiances. ¶4. (SBU) Comment: The flooding appears to have delayed the possibility for conflict for at least a few weeks, but both the MAS and opposition are likely still actively plotting their respective political strategies. Santa Cruz and other opposition-led departments have not postponed their demands for a referendum on their autonomy statutes; and the MAS is equally unlikely to slow its push for a referendum on their draft constitution. Both referenda movements are seen as provocative, and neither side has fully discounted using force to impose its vision. End Comment. GOLDBERG