BOLIVIA: "TRUCE" DURING NATURAL DISASTER?

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 000296 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2017 TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL BL SUBJECT: BOLIVIA: "TRUCE" DURING NATURAL DISASTER? REF: LA PAZ 266 Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4b, d ¶1. (U) On February 11 La Paz Mayor Juan del Granado proposed a 60-day truce between the central government and the opposition prefects so that the country could focus on disaster-relief for flood-stricken areas. Originally President Evo Morales praised del Granado for the idea. On February 12, presidential spokesman Alex Contreras responded that there should be an "indefinite and unlimited" truce, and that talks at a technical level should continue at the same time. Contreras urged a "culture of dialogue...and not of violence and of confrontations." ¶2. (U) The opposition prefects and autonomy-focused civic groups rejected the idea of technical meetings, continuing to demand direct dialogue with President Morales and warning that they will seek to pressure the government (strikes/road blocks) if their original February 13 deadline is not met (reftel). Carlos Dabdoub, Autonomy Director of the Santa Cruz Prefecturate asked that the government take "concrete actions that show that there is a desire for dialogue." Reynaldo Bayard, president of the civic committee of Tarija, said, "We would accept this truce, but only under conditions that would stop the socialization (government propaganda) of the false constitution of the MAS; beyond that, they have to tell us where they're going to get the money for the Renta Dignidad (a new government pension created by Morales paid for with money coming from the prefects' hydrocarbons resources.)" ¶3. (C) Comment: Ernesto Suarez, prefect of flood-ravaged Beni department, told the Ambassador that he would consider a truce as long as the central government releases the hydrocarbons revenues to the prefects and departments. There is no sign, however, that President Morales is willing to take this step, as he seems determined to weaken the departmental governments. The reality is that neither side is prepared to make meaningful concessions and both sides want to be perceived publicly as committed to dialogue while wanting the other to be blamed for the breakdown in talks. With the opposition prefects threat to apply pressure if the central government does not meet their demands by February 13 and the government stating it will not tolerate civil disobedience, confrontations seem almost certain. However, it remains unclear exactly when and how the two sides will square off. Futhermore, given the magnitude of the current humanitarian plight caused by extensive floods, both sides may find it necessary to hold off on political actions that could be portrayed as insensitive to the ongoing human suffering. End comment. GOLDBERG