SANTA CRUZ CIVIC SPIRIT REVIVING

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 002575 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2018 TAGS: PGOV ECON PREL PINR BL SUBJECT: SANTA CRUZ CIVIC SPIRIT REVIVING Classified By: Classified by Ecopol Counselor Mike Hammer for reason 1. 4 b. ¶1. (C) Summary: The arrest and "deportation" to La Paz of three members of the Union of Santa Cruz Youth, combined with government threats against other civic leaders and activists, have served to re-energize civic spirit in Santa Cruz. The "NO" campaign on the January 25, 2009 constitutional referendum is finally taking off despite an incomplete message and strategy. Santa Cruz leaders hope to defeat the MAS government's draft constitution in at least five departments and keep the margin of victory (for they still recognize it will likely pass nationwide) below 60%. Meanwhile, it seems Santa Cruz leaders have consolidated their support for Luis Nunez as the next civic committee president. End summary. NO! --- ¶2. (C) Santa Cruz civic and political leaders have found some of their old energy, compared to a month ago when they were nearly moribund. In recent weeks, they have rallied around the "No" campaign against the Morales government's draft constitution. While their message is not highly refined (a foreign consultant is still running focus groups),and while there seem to be several "groups" claiming to be coordinating the campaign, they have started to speak out on the themes of discrimination based on race, lack of economic autonomy for the regions, land confiscations (a theme that resonates even with small landowners who fear losing their property to a mass invasion of highlanders) and the undefined "community justice" which in Santa Cruz is associated with lynchings such as the one that recently took place in Achacachi. Ironically, it was the government's dramatic arrest of three youth from the outlying city of Montero, accused of attacking a police officer during the September 2008 civil unrest, that spun up the population once again. By popular account, the young men were dragged from their beds in the middle of the night by masked, heavily-armed policemen who speedily dispatched them to La Paz, without even jackets to keep them warm in the frigid, damp San Pedro prison. The idea that these youth would be judged in La Paz, rather than in Santa Cruz where the event took place (and therefore where they should legally be indicted),reignited Santa Cruz civic spirit. ¶3. (U) The symbol of the campaign is simply a big, black "NO" printed on a white background. The message is stark, dramatic, and clear, and it is starting to pop up all around Santa Cruz. In late November, public university students invited citizens to wear white T-shirts to the central plaza, where they provided the free service of spray-painting on the "NO." Evangelical churches were handing out leaflets and training their members to talk to other citizens about why the draft constitution is bad for Christians. Employees of the Prefecture (state government) and independent agencies it oversees told American Presence Officer (APPO) they were starting to get orders to "take to the streets" every night after work to campaign. ¶4. (C) Civic Committee President Branko Marinkovic has been in hiding for two weeks and will soon be departing for Europe to "explain" the opposition's arguments to EU governments, press, and think tanks. He has been the target of almost daily threats by government ministers, who publicly say they have plans to bring him to trial for being behind the explosion of a gas duct in September and other acts of violence carried out by pro-autonomy movements. Minister of Government Quintana told the press, "Marinkovic should prepare his defense." However, no indictment has come forth. There is reportedly a "black list" circulating in Santa Cruz, which contains the names of all the activists and leaders the government allegedly has in its sights. Several civic committee members explained that this is likely just an intimidation tactic. Unfortunately, Marinkovic has a lot to lose, as his family owns a great deal of land and an oil-seed processing plant. Furthermore, Crucenos were highly critical that both he and Prefect (Governor) Ruben Costas seemed to disappear at the height of the crisis in September, leaving the autonomists to fend for themselves in the streets. The government's tactic seems to be to take advantage of this critical attitude, and force Marinkovic to remain in hiding "like a coward." On the other hand, if the authorities went so far as to actually arrest him, it could backfire by setting off a strong, possibly violent, popular backlash against the government. This is a game of cat-and-mouse that has all the players calculating, but not acting, for the time being. ¶5. (C) The goal of the "NO" campaign admittedly is not to win nationwide, but rather to narrow the gap of the "yes" victory. Based on recent polls, civic committee leaders say they hope the MAS constitution will win less than 60% on January 25, and that it will be soundly defeated in at least five eastern departments. However, the pro-autonomy departments have lost their former unity and are scrambling to coordinate the "NO" campaign. In Tarija, where Civic Committee President Bayard has been arrested and appears to have made a deal with the government that includes bashing the mayor and prefect, the Crucenos are concerned that the "NO" campaign won't take off at all. In Pando, with Prefect Leopoldo Fernandez languishing in prison in La Paz and the entire department militarized, the fear is that the police and military votes will outnumber the Pando citizens. Crucenos claim that Beni is completely disorganized, Chuquisaca is divided, and Cochabamba is a mess, especially since ousted Prefect Manfred Reyes Villa has "disappeared" from the scene to cool his heels in the United States. Santa Cruz civic committee leaders admit they may have to switch their focus beyond their borders to these other departments if they are going to be able to defeat the constitution in the eastern half of the country. Civic Committee President Elections -------------- ¶6. (C) As the NO campaign starts to coalesce, there is also more clarity on future leadership of the civic committee when Branko Marinkovic's two-year term ends in February 2009. One oft-rumored candidate was constitutional lawyer Juan Carlos Urenda, the drafter of the autonomy statutes. His abrupt resignation from the prefecture caused waves in early November and led to speculation that he was re-focusing his energy toward the civic committee. However, he told emboffs November 26 that he resigned because he was hired with the specific purpose of incorporating "autonomy" into the draft constitution. Now that a less-autonomous version of "autonomy" has been included in the document, he no longer has a role to play in promoting it. Other interlocutors told us he was disillusioned to have lost this autonomy battle, and disappointed in Prefect Ruben Costas' apparent willingness to negotiate on aspects of the autonomy statutes with the Morales administration in the September "dialogue" in Cochabamba. Urenda further told emboff that he prefered to work in a capacity that is recognized in the constitutional system, indicating he may be considering a run for Santa Cruz Prefect in 2010. He vehemently denied he was interested in the civic committee presidency. ¶7. (C) Another possible candidate was Carlos "Chipa" Rojas, President of the Wheat and Seed Producers Union (ANAPO). He was an attractive candidate for several reasons in addition to his undisputed leadership qualities: he hails from the Cochabamba countryside; he comes from a humble background and obtained his farms little-by-little through hard work and sound fiscal decisions; and he has a darker complexion than most other leaders. In short, it would be hard for Evo to label him an "oligarch." During a recent meeting, Rojas was occupied with organizing the tractor blockade of the Cochabamba-to-Santa Cruz transit route to protest the lack of diesel and government support for agriculture production. (Comment: The "tractorazo" was successful from an organizational perspective, but was met by derision from the government.) Rojas told APPO December 4, "Regarding the civic committee presidency, it is not my time. I will wait a few more years. Maybe a woman would be a good choice." ¶8. (C) It seems that current first vice president of the civic committee, Luis "Lucho" Nunez, has the blessing to replace Marinkovic. Santa Cruz Chamber of Commerce, Industry and Tourism (CAINCO) general director Daniel Velasco told APPO that "traditionally, the first vice president becomes president," a strong indication that Nunez already has the endorsement of the business community. Nunez himself was less than modest in a December 3 meeting with APPO. After detailing his accomplishments at Marinkovic's side during the past two years, Nunez boldly declared, "And so I feel very confident in saying that you are sitting with the future president of the Santa Cruz civic committee!" He is being a bit more constrained in public and with the press. German Antelo and the Vice Presidency? -------------- ¶9. (C) In a December 4 meeting with APPO, neurosurgeon and popular civic leader German Antelo admitted he was being courted as a possible running mate by several aspiring presidential candidates from La Paz. He said he had talked to people close to both former President Carlos Mesa and UN party leader Samuel Doria Medina, as well as to Potosi Mayor Rene Joaquino and former VP Victor Hugo Cardenas, but he had not decided what to do. Locally, many Crucenos are urging him to run for mayor or prefect, and he said he would frankly prefer one of those offices. When Santa Cruz politicians "defect" to La Paz, he lamented, they get burned by the local population and media. He is not ready to destroy the good reputation and popularity he won during his term as civic committee president. Nonetheless, he is not closing any doors and is continuing to talk to everyone. He is also continuing efforts in his foundation to train young Santa Cruz leaders. The meeting ended as Antelo headed off to operate pro bono on an injured worker's spine; the fact that he actively practices his specialty is part of his charm. Comment: -------------- ¶10. (C) A month ago, Crucenos were still licking their wounds after failing to make gains in the Cochabamba dialogue and "losing" their vision of autonomy in the ensuing Constitutional text compromise in Congress. They were angry at the lack of courage and fortitude of Branko Marinkovic and Ruben Costas, and resigned to the constitutional referendum passing by a landslide. While there is still some sense of mourning, their fighting spirit is returning. The real question is whether it will spread enough through Bolivia to put the brakes on an overwhelming "yes" vote on the MAS government's proposed constitution on January 25. URS