ELECTION OBSERVER REQUEST FROM GOVERNMENT OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 002462 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/14/2018 TAGS: ASEC BL KDEM PGOV PREL SUBJECT: ELECTION OBSERVER REQUEST FROM GOVERNMENT OF BOLIVIA Classified By: CDA Krishna Urs for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (U) This is an action request. Please see paragraph 4. ¶2. (C) Post has received a Diplomatic Note from the Bolivian Ministry of Foreign Affairs requesting we provide election observers for the January 25, 2009 constitutional referendum (informal translation attached). This request has been sent to all accredited missions in Bolivia. Post makes the following recomendations and requests guidance in order to respond to the Government of Bolivia's request. -------------- RECOMMENDATION -------------- ¶3. (C) Post does not believe it would be prudent for the USG to take a direct observer role in the January 25 constitutional election. Post recommends the USG support the observer process through Organization of American States (OAS) mechanisms. The following five factors have led Post to recommend that the USG not have direct election observers: Factor 1 - President Evo Morales' Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) government periodically accuses the USG of conspiracy and intromission in internal affairs. If the USG takes a direct observer role in the January 25 election it risks a further deterioration in the bilateral relationship. If USG election observers were to discover irregularities and publicly denounce them the MAS would most likely claim this is proof the USG is against Morales. Conversely, if the MAS constitution passes we can assume the Morales government would use the presence of USG observers for their political benefit; proof that even the United States endorses Morales' push for "change." Factor 2 - Sending AMCIT election observers into the field could put their personal safety at risk, especially in MAS stronghold areas. Emotions are raw in Bolivia, with the Embassy and the USG being one of the government's favorite targets. We should not put people's security unnecessarily at risk in this anti-American environment. Factor 3 - The Bolivian voter roll is seriously flawed. Following the August 10 presidential referendum there have been credible charges of errors within the voter registration registry The National Electoral Court has asked the OAS to review the voter roll, however this process will not be complete nor any recommendations implemented until after January 25. Direct USG election observers could give the �0A;appearance of implicitly endorsing the Bolivian electoral registry. Factor 4 - The most important election in 2009 will be the presidential election currently scheduled for December. Polling shows, and Bolivian experts from across the political experts all agree, that the MAS constitution will easily pass on January 25. The USG would be best served to concentrate its resources on observing the presidential elections early on in the process. Factor 5 - USAID funds a Bolivian domestic observer program. The domestic observers have been formally invited by the National Electoral Court to observe the January 25 referendum. The domestic observers will report their findings back to Post. ¶4. (C) Action request: Post requests that the Department provide guidance on how to respond to the Bolivian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Diplomatic Note. -------------- BEGIN TEXT -------------- Republic of Bolivia Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Worship VREC-DGRM-Cs-2098/2008-19.418 The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Worship, Vice Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Worship, presents its compliments to the honorable Embassy of the United States and refers to the fact that on October 21, 2008 the Government of the Republic of Bolivia, after following the lawful congressional procedures, approved Special Law No. 3942 to hold a national referendum on January 25, 2009, in order to approve the new Bolivian constitution. The National Electoral Court, in exercise of its mandate to organize and conduct electoral processes as the highest electoral authority in Bolivia, and with the purpose of protecting the principles of transparency and publicity in elections, pursuant to Law No. 1984 of the Electoral Code, has requested that this Ministry contact the Government of the United States to request observation missions for the aforementioned referendum. Accordingly, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic, wishes to request that the Honorable Embassy respond to such petition for international observers, so that they can attest to the quality and transparency of the referendum. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Worship, Vice Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Worship, coveys its gratitude to the Honorable Embassy of the United States for its attention to this request and avails itself of this opportunity to renew the assurances of its highest and most distinguished consideration. La Paz, November 11, 2008 -------------- END TEXT -------------- URS