USG AGENCIES AGAIN IN EVO'S CROSSHAIRS

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 002305 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/28/2018 TAGS: SNAR PGOV PREL PTER EAID ASEC BL SUBJECT: USG AGENCIES AGAIN IN EVO'S CROSSHAIRS REF: A. STATE 114134 ¶B. LA PAZ 2293 ¶C. LA PAZ 2182 ¶D. LA PAZ 2150 Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The latest round of government attacks on the DEA suggest that the Morales Administration will decide whether or not to expel DEA based on the "independent" decision of Chapare-region cocalero leaders. Morales and MAS leaders railed against DEA "infiltrators" October 25 and 26, creating the impression sans evidence that the DEA is supporting violent opposition groups and that Bolivia has to choose between ATPDEA trade benefits and its national "sovereignty." Not to be outdone, Presidency Minister Juan Ramon Quintana blamed USAID for supporting opposition forces in the September 11 Pando "massacre" October 27. Although we've heard anti-DEA and USAID bluster throughout the Morales administration, Post fears the government is headed beyond bravado and toward concrete actions against our agencies. Regardless, we'll continue to be in the spotlight until the December 2009 elections. Meanwhile, Bolivian officials in Washington and La Paz seemed wholly unaware of the Morales' latest "DEA or Dignity" speaking points during the last weeks. End Summary. Evo Spins DEA's Hypothetical "Political Acts" -------------- ¶2. (U) President Evo Morales put the DEA presence in the Chapare region (the largest coca-producing area in Bolivia) on the chopping block October 25. In public statements focused on the Chapare, Morales warned the DEA it should leave the country if it is engaged "in political acts." "If the DEA is not engaged in political action, we'll respect them. If they are continuing to conduct political actions, it is better that they leave." Morales went on to accuse DEA of paying off unidentified parties in Santa Cruz Department (state) to prevent both him and Vice President Alvaro Garcia Linera from landing at the Santa Cruz airport. Morales opined this was consistent with the DEA's history of political meddling in Bolivia and, more recently, of conspiring with opposition forces to undermine his administration. He added a barb at other governments that "cooperate (with DEA) in an unconditional manner." ATPDEA is "Blackmail" -------------- ¶3. (U) Ruling Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) leaders supported Morales' comments October 26. MAS Senate leader Felix Rojas accused the United States of using suspension of Andean Trade Preference (ATPDEA) status, which is based on counter-narcotics cooperation, as "blackmail." Rojas added that the government would choose "sovereignty" over ATPDEA. Lower House Majority Leader Cesar Navarro asserted the government would not allow ATPDEA to be used as a "pretext" for "U.S. military and political control." Navarro accused DEA of being "a political-military instrument" used to "infiltrate in the country's internal affairs." Cocaleros Know Best -------------- ¶4. (U) Evo and MAS leaders have laid responsibility for making a decision to expel the DEA with Chapare cocalero unions. Rojas said the government "will pay close attention" to the findings of the cocaleros since they and other social movements "are the fundamental pillars of the government." "The social movements are analyzing (DEA) expulsion and will ask for the removal of DEA from Bolivia any moment because all DEA does is slander the government and this cannot stand," said Julio Salazar, a leader with the Chapare-based Six Federations of the Tropics. Peasant Farmer (Campesino) Confederation leader Isaac Avalos already endorsed DEA's departure October 25, asking the "beloved President" to expel DEA as he expelled Ambassador Goldberg. Quintana's USAID Pando Paranoia -------------- ¶5. (U) Presidency Minister Juan Ramon Quintana publicly accused the United States October 27 of supporting pro-opposition forces in the September 11 Pando "massacre." "We will denounce before the entire world that the U.S. Government also participated in the Pando massacre accompanying the political criminals of (ex-Prefect) Leopoldo Fernandez and because of that we have to judge internationally the agencies of USAID that have intervened directly in the Department of Pando," said Quintana. Minister Quintana accused the United States of "working day and night" to conspire against and block the government's revolutionary process. Quintana said USAID was "the most important enemy" to this process. He added that expelling Ambassador Goldberg was the most important and "moral" act of "our revolution." Trying to Trace the MAS Logic -------------- ¶6. (C) DEA Attache' explained a possible source of the Santa Cruz airport and/or Pando charges might be an early September meeting between DEA Bolivian national employees and then Pando Department Prefect (state governor) Leopoldo Fernandez (who has since been arrested and is being held in La Paz). At the time, DEA was trying to secure permission to use the Cobija, Pando airport in order to fly two RSO and six DEA personnel stuck in neighboring Beni Department back to La Paz in coordination with Post's authorized departure. Vice Minister of Social Defense (Drug Czar) Felipe Caceres approached DEA Attache' with the plate numbers of Embassy vehicles and explained that some government officials presumed the meeting was arranged to support opposition actions against the central government. DEA Attache' explained the actual, mundane purpose of the meeting and Caceres promised to relay this explanation to relevant officials. ¶7. (C) Comment: Although linking DEA's Cobija meeting with either Morales' Santa Cruz airport complaint or Quintana's Pando accusations requires a substantial suspension of disbelief and a complete mixing-up of relevant locations and agencies, such Herculean leaps of logic and seemingly intentional rejection of basic facts have been typical in the government's previous USG conspiracy theories. Furthermore, Quintana's own role in Pando has come under scrutiny and the Argentine UNASUR Human Rights investigator has asked to interview Quintana. Quintana's latest outrageous accusations against the USG fit into Quintana's established pattern to try to deflect attention away from himself when the media spotlight focuses on some potential wrongdoing. End Comment. Clueless in DC -------------- ¶8. (C) Drug Czar Caceres and Minister of Finance Luis Arce met with State INL, ONDCP, and DEA officials in Washington October 24, following their October 23 public testimony regarding suspension of ATPDEA benefits to Bolivia. Caceres' lone speaking point was to propose a memorandum of understanding between the two governments to clarify what DEA does in Bolivia, to which DEA had no objections. The MOU proposal is consistent with Caceres' recent meetings with Embassy officials, (seemingly optimistically) focusing on how to improve DEA cooperation instead of preparing for a withdrawal (reftels c and d). We inquired about charges from Morales that DEA had supplied weapons, including anti-tank weapons, to the opposition (reftel b) and asked what proof government officials were using to make this connection. Neither Arce nor Caceres responded. Arce, however, made a fresh claim that USAID was supporting Tarija's opposition prefect (governor),also without evidence. In meetings with INL PDAS McGlynn (reftel a),Arce said DEA had never been expelled from the Chapare by the government and this was a "misunderstanding." Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) What is often lost in the domestic discussion is the fact that the DEA has already left the Chapare at the request of the government and is waiting permission to return. Morales' DEA expulsion statements switched back and forth between referring to the Chapare or to Bolivia in general, generating confusion over how extensive a DEA-free zone he intended to press for. Our DEA office is convinced Evo intends any move to expel DEA to include the entire country. Both Caceres and Arce seemed intent on an MOU as a means of moving bilateral DEA cooperation forward, with apparently no idea the proposal would be overcome by Morales statements the following day. As is often the case with many of our working-level and even senior-level government contacts, it appeared as if Caceres and Arce are out of the decision-making process on major issues, a process that seems increasingly narrowly focused within a small group inside the President Palace. ¶10. (C) Morales' latest DEA charges are vintage Evo: create a hypothetical situation without making direct charges, making it impossible to refute with facts. "If" DEA was doing bad things, they "should" be expelled. Such "shoulda, woulda, coulda" charges create the illusion that where there is smoke, there are DEA agents conspiring against the government. Taking the Evo formula to the next level, he and MAS leaders give decision making authority (and any fallout for the decision) to the cocaleros, in an disingenuous attempt to appear detached, neutral, and even-handed. This despite the fact that Evo remains the President of the Chapare cocalero federation in question and the prime architect of its initiatives. We expect Evo's attacks to continue through the 2009 elections as we make a good campaign foil. Strategically, Morales has put the onus on us once again to disprove false accusations while leaving himself with all options open. We would not be surprised if Evo decided to follow through on his threat to expel DEA once a final decision of suspending ATPDEA is announced -- and Evo will shroud himself in sovereignty and the need to preserve Bolivia's national dignity. End Comment. URS