BOLIVIA: TEARS AND TANTRUMS AFTER THE COMPROMISE

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 002285

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: BOLIVIA: TEARS AND TANTRUMS AFTER THE COMPROMISE

Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer, reasons 1.4 b,d


1. (C) Summary: One day after the final voting on a
compromise that will give President Evo Morales his January
25 referendum on a modified draft constitution, reactions
vary widely. Evo's teary welcome of the announcement (and
declaration that he can now die happy) reflects the high
stakes at play for his Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party.
MAS supporters have generally responded favorably to the hope
of getting "their" constitution passed, but some more-radical
and indigenist groups have accused Evo of betraying their
socialist goals. Accusations have been leveled at the
opposition, too, with opposition Chuquisaca Prefect Savina
Cuellar accusing the national opposition of "betraying
Chuquisaca" and declaring that Chuquisaca will not accept the
draft constitution. A national opposition contact tells us
that the "No" campaign against the draft constitution may be
aimed at foiling Evo's second presidency bid in a December
2009 election once the constitution passes. The opposition is
divided and weakened, and some government statements suggest
that Evo is already looking beyond the constitution and his
re-election to further means of consolidating his power. End
summary.

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MAS Compromises..."for now"
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2. (C) The new draft constitution (according to an unofficial
version made public by leading daily newspaper La Razon)
includes text intended to limit Evo to only one more
consecutive term: "The terms (in office) previous to the
validity of this constitution will be counted in the
computation of the new periods of election." This and the
reversion to a two-thirds majority (instead of simple
majority) to amend the constitution were significant
victories for the opposition. Recent statements from the
government's chief negotiator, Development Minister Carlos
Romero, suggest that some in the government are already
thinking of how this agreement can be changed, however. In an
interview, Romero said, "Reelection, for now, includes only
one term." When asked by the reporter if this was
definitive, Romero answered, "That's the policy. Some things
will be left for the future. And we'll see."


3. (C) Regardless of whether the MAS is already planning to
back out of their concessions to the opposition, Evo has
gained his primary goals: a referendum on the MAS
constitution and the possibility of reelection (for at least
one consecutive term.) Evo's joy at the victory was obvious
in television coverage, as he cried and announced that he
could "now die happy."

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Regional Opposition Feels Betrayed
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4. (C) Civic committees of Santa Cruz, Chuquisaca, and Beni
rejected the national opposition's compromise with the
government and announced that they will campaign for the "No"
vote in the January 25 constitutional referendum. Santa
Cruz's Department Electoral Court announced that the
department will not hold a constitutional referendum until
there has been an audit of the voter rolls (Note: allegations
of voter registration fraud were widespread before and after
the August 10 recall referendum that gave Evo a 67 percent
win. End note.) Chuquisaca Prefect Savina Cuellar described
the national opposition as "traitors" for negotiating a
compromise on the draft MAS constitution and for not
including the question of full capital status for Sucre. So
far, however, there are no indications that the regional
opposition would try to block a vote on the constitution;
instead they will try to defeat it at the ballot box in
January.

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National Opposition Helping Regional?
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5. (C) National opposition strategist Javier Flores (strictly
protect) claims that, behind the screens and at the last
moment, opposition congressmen were able to get the
government to agree to lifting the state of siege in Pando
and releasing Pando Prefect Leopoldo Fernandez and the "Pando
14" opposition prisoners. According to Flores, however, there
is nothing on paper to document this "gentlemen's agreement.
Flores believes the government will honor lifting martial
law, but he feels the government will not consider
reinstating Fernandez and would only consider freeing the
opposition prisoners if they could be called back to face
specific charges in the future. Flores claimed that in
exchange the opposition agreed to stop publishing information
linking foreign interests and Presidency Minister Quintana to
the September 11 violence. In fact, on October 21 Quintana
publicly apologized to Fernandez for Quintana's statement,
made before the September 11 clash in Pando, announcing
Fernandez's political death and expressing hope that he would
"rest with the worms". (Note: we have no other sources to
confirm "backroom" details. End note.)

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Opposition Breakdown: National and Regional
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6. (C) Not surprisingly in the wake of a major victory for
the president, cracks are showing in both the national and
regional opposition coalitions. Samuel Doria Medina, head of
the small National Unity (UN) opposition party, has stated
that he will campaign for the "Yes" vote on the MAS
constitution. According to Javier Flores, Doria Medina (a
national cement magnate) and his party were "far too willing
to vote for the referendum without a (substantive)
agreement"; Flores joked that "the UN's cement was not very
solid." (Note: there has been unsubstantiated speculation
that the government may be pressuring Doria Medina through
actions against his cement empire. Doria Medina was behind
the call for negotiations in congress. End note.)


7. (C) Beni Prefect Ernesto Suarez announced on October 22
that he is considering forming a new opposition party to run
against Evo in 2009 (thus tacitly admitting that the "Yes"
vote on the referendum will win.) Always the most radical
opposition department, Santa Cruz is the most opposed to the
new constitution. In fact, according to Flores, opposition
members of congress from Santa Cruz held out for a
considerable period against the national opposition during
the congressional negotiations, under orders of Santa Cruz
Prefect Ruben Costas.


8. (C) There seems to be little chance that the regional and
national opposition powers will pull together. Flores seemed
pleased with the disarray among the opposition prefects, whom
he called "false gods". Flores said the Santa Cruz regional
leadership is "completely discredited" in the wake of the
September violence. According to Flores, other regional
opposition groups feel that Santa Cruz set them up for
failure by leading them to the brink of violence and then
failing in the follow-through: people like Pando Prefect
Fernandez are now "paying the price." Flores claims to be
arguing daily with Santa Cruz Prefect Costas' people, who
still "have this illusion that they can win with a hard line.
They already failed with this; no one is going to listen to
them." The national opposition considers their success in
achieving a compromise on the constitutional referendum a
sign that they have taken back power from the
previously-ascendant regional opposition leaders.

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Going Negative: The "No" Campaign
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9. (C) According to opposition strategist Javier Flores, the
national opposition is reconsidering the "No" campaign in
light of the referendum compromise, since the opposition's
concessions may make it more difficult for the opposition to
oppose the constitution. Many opposition leaders are
reevaluating committing resources to the "No" campaign and
are instead focusing on the December general elections. The
new strategy would be to use the referendum as campaign tool
in the December elections, accentuating problems with the
economy. The loss of ATPDEA benefits would be used against
Evo, with the opposition focusing on complaints from El Alto
(a major support base for Evo.) The opposition will also
attempt to capitalize on public discomfort at what is seen as
increasing Venezuelan involvement in the country. Flores
described the constitutional referendum as a kind of trial
election to "start chipping away" at Evo's administration.

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International Observers Welcome Deal, Take Credit
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10. (C) International observers welcomed the compromise
reached by the opposition and the government in congress.
Privately they have, to us, patted themselves on the back for
acting as a restraint on Evo's potentially confrontational
strategy. Press reports are highlighting their participation
as "vital", and international coverage is generally positive.
What seems to be getting lost in the relief following a
peaceful solution is that, with up to 100,000 MAS supporters
surrounding the congress (and, in one instance, setting off
dynamite at the gates) Evo brought considerable pressure on
the congress, not a standard procedure for relations between
the executive and legislative branches.

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Comment
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11. (C) While radical groups such as the Indian Pachakuti
Movement (MIP) are complaining that the government conceded
too much to the opposition in modifying the draft
constitution's text, MAS leaders are welcoming the compromise
and gearing up for the campaign for the "Yes" vote. Although
the opposition, both regional and national, will try to
defeat the new constitution, it is likely to pass. Once Evo
has his new constitution (which we will analyze in more
detail in an upcoming cable),he will be able to focus on his
reelection in December 2009. After that, he and his advisors
seem to be looking to the future...a future that could
include additional terms for Evo. With the help of Venezuelan
funding and state media, Evo has built himself a
near-impregnable facade of legitimacy and power. Evo's
victory makes the USG less of a target, but we can expect
that he will continue to use us as needed to beat the
"sovereignty" drum and rally his bases. End comment.
URS