BOLIVIA: AGREEMENT (AND SIEGE) "CLOSE"

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 002262

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC KDEM BL
SUBJECT: BOLIVIA: AGREEMENT (AND SIEGE) "CLOSE"

Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 b,d


1. (C) Summary: Thousands of protesters are converging on the
congress, marching from the south through the residential
areas and from El Alto with President Evo Morales leading the
main column that originally gathered in Oruro almost a week
ago. A one-day strike has been called in El Alto, schools
were closed by the government, and public employees have been
ordered to participate (neighborhood organizations in El Alto
are fining members if they do not march.) The Embassy is on
minimal staffing because of the possibility of large protests
near the Chancery. Diplomats inside the congress (acting as
international observers of the negotiations) report that both
the opposition and the government have made concessions on
their demands and an agreement may be close. So far, there
are no reports of violence. End summary.

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Evo and Friends on the March
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2. (C) Press reports indicate that the march is larger than
previously expected, with Movement Toward Socialism (MAS)
supporters from the south of the city marching through the
residential areas to join with marchers descending from El
Alto. President Evo Morales is heading the march from El
Alto down to congress, although his doctors recommended 48
hours of rest due to exhaustion and headaches on October 19.
Some protesters who have already reached the main plaza
outside of congress have begun setting up chairs and
bleachers, calling for an unprecedented "outdoor congress" so
that members of congress can "answer to the people."
Opposition members of congress are denying the possibility of
this outdoor congress for security reasons. So far, there
are no reports of violence, although such large numbers of
demonstrators milling throughout La Paz is cause for concern.

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Compromise Close in Congress?
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3. (C) On October 17, the Brazilian Embassy told us that the
government was considering some meaningful compromises on the
MAS draft constitution's text in order to get the votes they
needed to pass legislation calling for a constitutional
referendum in early 2009. Among the compromises the
Brazilians reported were: counting Evo's first term so that
he would only have one addition five-year period if
reelected, and modifying article 411 of the draft MAS
constitution so that a two-thirds majority in congress would
still be needed to make changes to the constitution (the
draft currently requires only a simple majority in one house
to modify the constitution.) The Brazilians suggested that
the government was determined to get legislation for a
constitutional referendum and would try to buy or coerce
votes, negotiate, or simply block out the opposition to get
its way.


4. (C) On October 20, the British Ambassador, in congress as
an observer to the negotiations, reported that the opposition
and government quite suddenly got "much closer to an
agreement" (only an hour earlier, the British were reporting
that talks had failed.) Whereas earlier the opposition had
been holding out for a delay on national elections until 2010
(hoping that Evo's popularity would fall as the economy
suffers over the next year),by mid-morning the British
informed us that the opposition seemed ready to agree to
earlier elections, and that the debate was now over whether
the elections would be held in August of 2009 or December of

2010.


5. (C) The opposition has reportedly negotiated some textual
changes to MAS draft constitution, including the two-thirds
requirement to modify the constitution as reported by the
Brazilians, clearer autonomies, some corrections to "social
issues" (presumably addressing the racial inequalities in the
original draft constitution) and the maximum size of land
holdings. The British are not sure if the pressure of the MAS
siege and threat of an "outdoor congress" made opposition
give in, but they do feel that the opposition likely knows
that they are in weak position and must take what they can
get. The British feel that the government does not have any
plan for a breakdown in negotiations except using the
protesters to force a vote. The British also tell us that
they are concerned that the massive demonstration will not
fit into the plaza outside of congress, and that protesters
who spill out into the rest of the city may begin to do
damage.

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Opposition Still Doubtful
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6. (C) Despite hopes among diplomatic observers, our contacts
in the opposition tell us that they are still not sure if
there will be an agreement or not. Senator Roger Pinto
(opposition party PODEMOS) who has been sequestered in the
congressional buildings since Saturday, told us on October 20
that although they "were very close" to an agreement, he
"honestly doesn't know" if compromise can be reached. He said
that, to his surprise, both sides have made "serious
compromises" and it is still possible to conclude a vote on
legislation for a constitutional referendum, but that the
opposition is waiting for a response from Development
Minister Romero (who is heading negotiations on
constitutional textual changes) on the issue of re-election.
Pinto reports that enough concessions have been made on other
contentious issues that the opposition is disposed to vote
for the constitutional referendum if only the MAS will
compromise on re-election so that President Evo Morales does
not have a potential ten more years in office.


7. (C) Pinto said that the opposition has accepted that there
will be a constitutional referendum in January (this is the
MAS's main goal); the opposition's backup plan if no
compromise can be reached is to hunker down for the siege and
make the government pay a public relations price for
surrounding the congress and forcing a vote. The opposition
still fears that, despite government reassurances, the MAS
may still convoke a "trick vote" in an alternate location (as
they have done before to exclude the opposition.) Pinto
opined that trickery would look bad for the government, but
not as bad as "thugs beating up members of congress."


8. (C) Other opposition contacts have told us that the
artificial deadline imposed by the MAS (by having MAS-aligned
social groups descend upon the congress) has made
negotiations more difficult for the opposition and the MAS,
since some MAS moderates have been working hard to find a
true compromise with the opposition. There is a sense among
some members of congress that the MAS, having called for this
march, is now unable to fully control it.

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Comment
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9. (C) So far the MAS-aligned social groups converging on the
city center have been well-behaved, and no violence has been
reported. The idea of an "outdoor congress" seems designed
solely to put pressure on the opposition (who are not pleased
by the idea of opposing the government while surrounded by
tens of thousands of the government's potentially-armed
supporters.) Because of the day-long strike in El Alto, fines
for non-participation, and a requirement that public
employees participate in the march, the number of protesters
entering the city center is larger than expected. We will
report further as needed. End comment.
URS