MFA TO MISSIONS: SIEGE ON CONGRESS JUST A PARADE

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 002255

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/18/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ASEC KDEM BL
SUBJECT: MFA TO MISSIONS: SIEGE ON CONGRESS JUST A PARADE

Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 (b)(d)


1. (C) Summary: MFA representatives explained the
government's position on recent political developments to
Ambassadors from the Americas October 16. The MFA
representatives thanked Ambassadors for UNASUR's September 15
declaration, which "forced the opposition to the negotiating
table." The MFA representatives maintained that despite best
efforts on the part of the government to reach a compromise
on the draft constitution's text, opposition prefects
(governors) refused to even acknowledge hard-worked gains of
the negotiation. The government asserted martial law in
Pando Department (state) was justified following a "massacre"
against pro-government supporters and explained that
prosecutions would move forward for participants in
September's "civil prefectural coup." They characterized the
large, government-supported march threatening to surround
Congress and force passage of a constitutional referendum as
a "festive" manifestation. They maintained that the
government's agenda had been endorsed by President Evo
Morales' 67 percent approval in the August 10 recall vote,
seemingly setting the groundwork to justify any extra-legal
measures taken against the opposition or institutions that
get in the government's way. End Summary.


2. (C) The Ministry of Foreign Affair's Director of Bilateral
Affairs Jean Paul Guevara and ex-Ambassador to the United
States Gustavo Guzman briefed Ambassadors from the Americas
on recent domestic political developments on Thursday,
October 16 from 10:00 a.m. until almost 12:00 noon. Guevara
introduced the meeting as another in the recent round of
meetings with foreign diplomatic missions to share
perspectives. He noted that the last meeting had taken place
following the August 10 recall referendum.

Opposition "Coup" Required Government Response
-------------- -


3. (C) Guevara outlined political developments since the
August 10 referendum. He characterized opposition actions
during this period as a civic prefectural coup, implying the
"coup" was led by civic committee leaders and prefects
(governors) in opposition departments (states). Developments
included in Guevara's narrative:

August 15 ) Government authorities (President Evo Morales)
were blocked from visiting four departments.

September 8 ) Seizure of central government institutions and
vandalism throughout the Media Luna.

September 10 ) Intentional closing of gas pipeline valves to
cause an explosion.

September 11 ) "Massacre" at Porvenir, Pando Department
organized by the Pando Prefecture to stop a march of
campesinos with 17 deaths and more missing.

All of these actions were designed to stop the process of
change. This process of change was supported by two thirds
of all Bolivians in the recall referendum (Note: Referring to
President Morales' 67 percent approval during August 10
recall referendum, according to official figures. End
Note.). The opposition's purpose was to stymie the will of
the people as demonstrated by the recall referendum vote.

September 11 ) Government imposes martial law on Pando.
(Note: Martial Law was actually imposed late September 12,
following the military takeover the Cobija Airport. End
Note.)

Talks Continue with Intransigent Opposition
--------------


4. (C) According to Guevara, the international community
played an important role in bringing the opposition to the
negotiating table after this violence. He cited the Rio
Group statement and the September 15 UNASUR meeting in
Santiago. Guevara highlighted the fact that the UNASUR
declaration declared its full support for the democratically
elected Morales Government. The declaration further stated
that it would not permit the rupture of the democratic regime
in Bolivia. This sent a strong message to the opposition
that it must negotiate.


5. (C) Ambassador Guzman then described what had happened
during the Cochabamba dialogue. He noted that many of the
Ambassadors in the room had attended the dialogue in
Cochabamba directly. Guzman claimed that the technical teams
working on the constitution, autonomy, and related issues
were able to reach an agreement in principle on the
autonomies issue. Despite the fact the dialogue had achieved
a major breakthrough, the Prefects declined to sign a deal.
Reaching the agreement in principle on autonomies had taken
no less than 150 hours of discussion. There was no agreement
on other key issues ) the constitutional referendum,
IDH/distribution of hydrocarbon revenue (Guzman explained
this was made impossible by the fall in international oil
prices and worldwide financial instability),and eight other
minor issues.


6. (C) Guzman also briefed on ongoing Congressional
conversations aimed at reaching a compromise of the text of
the draft constitution. These negotiations hit a glitch
yesterday when opposition politicians began to raise issues
that had not been raised previously. Despite the problems,
negotiations resumed today at 11 a.m. Guzman said there was
still time to reach a deal prior to the 4 p.m. congressional
session. (Note: This session was postponed until 3 p.m.
October 17 and then again to the morning of October 18. End
Note.) Guzman emphasized that the GOB would only agree to
limited changes in the constitutional text.


7. (C) In response to a question from the Mexican Ambassador,
Guevara told the group that six specific external groups were
observing the negotiations in the Bolivian Congress: the UN,
the EU troika, an OAS representative (Ricardo Lago from
Uruguay),the UNASUR delegate Valdez, and the catholic and
evangelical churches. Guzman said external observers told
him they were pleased with the atmosphere of the talks, but
had some concerns about the march. Guzman noted that at one
point Morales had referred to the participation by the
external observers as a "cerco moral."

Justifying "Festive" Siege on Congress
--------------


8. (C) Guevara concluded by saying that the opposition was
politically defeated. It has no choice but to accept the new
constitution with limited changes. He emphasized that the
march coming into the city on October 20 is a peaceful,
festive march; it is meant to pressure Congress, but he hoped
that no violence will occur. The indigenous participating in
the march are merely expressing their communal solidarity
with the new constitution. Following concerns about the
march voiced by the Costa Rican Ambassador, Guevara and
Guzman once again reassured the group that the marchers were
coming in a festive mood and that this was a communal way to
express their views. They likened it to the Gran Poder, an
annual parade of dancers.

Media Luna Violence Will be Prosecuted
--------------


9. (C) Guevara asserted the Bolivian government will continue
to prosecute people involved in the media luna violence.
This is a separate matter divorced from political
developments being carried on by a separate power of the
state ) the judiciary. There will be no impunity.

Comment:
--------------


10. (C) Ambassadors were cordial, but pushed back on the
official line that the march was nothing more than a

"parade." International observers are being used by the
government to sanction Morales Administration actions, not in
a constructive way to help bridge the gap between the
government and opposition. It appears the international
community is starting to pick up on this. The British DCM
told us international observers are getting tired of
attending negotiations without any ability to comment on
them. End Comment.
URS