EVO'S QUEST FOR THE CONSTITUTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 002252 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/06/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC PTER KDEM BL SUBJECT: EVO'S QUEST FOR THE CONSTITUTION Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 b,d ¶1. (C) Summary: Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) "social movement" groups began to arrive in La Paz on October 17, with the stated goal of encouraging or forcing the congress to pass legislation calling for a referendum on the MAS draft constitution. Negotiations on the text of the constitution are ongoing in congressional technical working groups, but contacts privately inform us that there is little hope of an agreement on the text. Instead, the central government is seeking support among undecided (or persuadable) opposition members of congress (note: Santa Cruz contacts suggest that USD200,000 is the standing MAS offer to buy a vote in congress. End note.) At the same time, a splinter group of MAS representatives who announced they will oppose the constitutional referendum have been threatened, and dynamite exploded in the home of Senator Guido Guardia (one of the MAS dissenters.) Conflicting reports suggest that there may be a protest at the Embassy to mark the October 17, 2003 fall of ex-President Gonzalo "Goni" Sanchez de Lozada, and the government is reportedly in the final steps of requesting Sanchez de Lozada's extradition. End summary. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - A Mandate from the MAS(es) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) Although press and private contacts have made it clear that the "social movement" march is significantly supported by the central government and other MAS officials, the government continues to pretend that the march is a spontaneous uprising in response to President Evo Morales' call to support the process of "change". Press articles have highlighted the presence of government vehicles and personnel in the march, and our government contacts tell us that they have been required to "donate" two percent of their month's wages and been told that they will need to participate in the march. An email originating from Vice President Garcia Linera's office gave detailed information on how to donate to support the marchers. ¶3. (C) More ominously, diplomatic contacts tell us that they received calls requesting donations to support the march. When they declined, the caller said, in what a Swiss diplomat described as a threatening tone, "So that means no?" The Dutch also report having received the request and a similar threat. The Swiss questioned whether they should be concerned, as thousands of marchers descend upon the city and may target missions that didn't support the cause. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Come See the Violence Inherent in the System! - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (C) For their part, the opposition are also calling on diplomatic missions (as well as international observer organizations) to be present in the congressional buildings for the anticipated MAS-orchestrated siege. According to opposition sources, the Mexican and Colombian missions are considering participating. The British tell us that they received this request "ages ago", and whereas there is no official decision from the EU Troika (the UK, France, and the European Commission),they feel their participation is unlikely unless their security can be guaranteed (which would be almost impossible, considering the likely instability of the situation.) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Negotiations in Congress: an anarcho-syndicalist commune - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (C) Opposition contacts inform us that the current negotiations in congressional working groups over the draft constitutional text are "just for show." The British, who are observing the congressional negotiations as part of the EU Troika, along with the OAS, UNASUR and churches, seem discouraged with the current lack of progress. As with the negotiations in Cochabamba, the observers are not being allowed to make any suggestions (reportedly the OAS's Dante Caputo tried to make suggestions in Cochabamba and was quickly repressed.) The British, however, feel that the congressional working groups are, in fact, a serious attempt by both sides to make progress without violence. ¶6. (C) Vice President Garcia Linera postponed the predicted October 17 convocation of congress, which is now reportedly scheduled for Saturday October 18. The British worry that Garcia Linera will immediately adjourn because of "no consensus" but then would be able to call another session of congress on a moment's notice (as Garcia Linera has done in the past enabling the MAS to surprise and exclude the opposition and arrive at a "two-thirds of those present" win.) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - UNASUR-alot (it's only a model) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (C) Reportedly responding to criticism from her own government, Chilean President Bachelet changed her visit plans for Cochabamba at the last minute and stayed only a few hours. UNASUR representatives are gathering in the Bolivian valley city to form a "South American parliament." (Comment: The department of Cochabamba is in many ways a microcosm of Bolivian division, with a former opposition mayor-turned-prefect (now replaced by a MAS supporter) and a militant wing of cocalero MAS supporters. The city of Cochabamba has limited hotel space, easily-and-often-blocked access routes, and is roughly in the center of a land-locked country with unreliable air traffic. If the location of UNASUR's parliament is an example of the organization's logistical strategy, future decisions will make for interesting viewing. End comment.) - - - - Comment - - - - ¶8. (C) Conversations with opposition contacts and government officials suggest that some sort of extra-legal action (possibly including a violent siege of congress) is inevitable in the MAS's quest to obtain a referendum on the constitution by late January 2009. MAS-aligned marchers are still arriving in the city of El Alto, and some contacts suggest that the goal of the march is mutating to include a protest at the Embassy against the "impunity" of ex-President Goni Sanchez de Lozada's presence in the United States. Most reports currently point to a massive gathering around congress, however, which will be the focus of "social movement" ire (as directed and funded by the MAS and the government.) End comment. URS