BOLIVIA: MORALES RALLIES (SOCIAL) TROOPS

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 002220

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PTER ASEC BL
SUBJECT: BOLIVIA: MORALES RALLIES (SOCIAL) TROOPS

Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 b,d


1. (C) Summary: President Evo Morales joined approximately
5000 marchers for the first kilometer of their journey from
Oruro province to the city of La Paz, where they plan to
encircle the congress to "encourage" passage of a law to
convoke a referendum on the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS)
draft constitution. Senate President Oscar Ortiz (opposition
PODEMOS party) questioned the real purpose of a march: "we
(the opposition) believe that if there is a dialogue process
which is meant seriously, it doesn't make sense to have a
march to pressure and prejudice that dialogue process."
Changes to the most critical parts of the MAS constitution
seem unlikely, despite negotiations in congress, as Morales
admitted over the weekend that "five years (as President) is
insufficient." Plans for an October 17 protest to mark the
fall from power of ex-President Gonzalo "Goni" Sanchez de
Lozada are still being discussed in El Alto, and there may be
new government attempts to link the event to the USG.
Presidency Minister Quintana claimed on state radio October
12 that the USG was directly to blame for the October 2003
crisis that left over 60 dead, 500 wounded, and led to
Sanchez de Lozada's fall from power. Foreign Minister
Choquehuanca announced on October 13 that the government is
"reviewing relations" with USAID and DEA, with an eye towards
their departure from Bolivia. End summary.

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Morales: Planning for the Future while "Making History"
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2. (C) In an interview on October 12, Morales explained his
position regarding presidential reelection, a major point of
his MAS constitution, saying that five years is
"insufficient" to consolidate a "Bolivia with dignity and
solidarity." Nevertheless, in an interview with state media
Patria Nueva on October 13, Morales described how "after
declaring the U.S. ambassador persona non grata and making
certain very important structural policies, I told (Vice
President) Alvaro (Garcia Linera) that I could die happy, we
made history." Morales repeated that he expects a referendum
on the draft MAS constitution to be held on January 25,
followed by national elections in June. (Note: The draft MAS
constitution would allow a president to be re-elected once
consecutively. Morales would be able to run "for the first
time" under the new constitution and then be re-elected after
his first five-year term, thus giving him potentially ten
more years in office. Of concern to many analysts is the
final article of the constitution, which would allow the
constitution to be amended by a simple majority in one house
of congress if then ratified by a simple majority in a
national referendum. With the current strength of the MAS in
the lower house and Morales' national popularity, it is quite
likely that the MAS constitution could be quickly amended to
allow the president even more time in office--possibly
unlimited reelection. End note.)


3. (C) Morales also said publicly that he trusts the military
is not considering a coup and he described himself as having
"destroyed" the opposition: "I perfectly remember that the
Tarija prefect was hard on us, as if he had very strong
arguments. We responded to every one of his arguments, but
now Cossio has been destroyed...he doesn't have any argument
to defend himself from a legal, political, social or economic
view." (Note: Emboff met with Chuquisaca's opposition leader
Fidel Herrera on October 10, and Herrera indicated that the
opposition may be considering Cossio as a potential
challenger to Morales in the 2009 elections if the MAS
constitution passes. Herrera described Cossio as the "most
credible" opposition leader because of his "tranquillity and
vision" and suggested that a ticket combining Cossio (to
appeal to the middle class) and an indigenous leader
(possibly Potosi mayor Rene Joaquino) might be the only way
to compete with Morales' popularity. End note.)
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March on La Paz: Siege or Vigil?
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4. (C) With the central government still unwilling to change
the most controversial parts of the constitution (including
articles which give extra rights to indigenous Bolivians, the
consecutive reelection of the president, and the easy
amendment of the constitution itself),the opposition has
declared that it will not pass legislation to call for a
referendum on the constitution, and social-movement pressure
tactics are looking more likely. A march of approximately
five thousand small-farmers, trade unionists, miners, and
other social groups is making its way to La Paz. Among the
gathering, the leaders of various groups are distributing
pro-Morales buttons and bags of coca leaves with ads calling
for a "yes" vote on the new constitution. A national
government contact told Emboff that public employees will
have to "donate" two percent of this month's wages to support
the march. They have also been told that their presence will
be required at some point. President Morales led the march
for the first kilometers, after telling his followers
"hopefully tomorrow or day after tomorrow the members of
congress will deliver a law to guarantee the approval of the
constitution." (Note: The law currently being debated in
congress would call for a national referendum on the
constitution: obviously Morales is confident that the
constitution will then be approved by popular vote. End note.)


5. (C) Opposition senators view as a veiled threat Morales'
promises that if the congress passes the constitutional
referendum law, the marchers will return home without
circling congress. Senator Carlos Borth (PODEMOS) described
the arrival of the marchers as an "implicit deadline for the
dialogue," while Senate President Oscar Ortiz (PODEMOS)
warned that "what happens in the seat of government with the
arrival of the marchers will be the fault of the president."
Morales for his part invited the opposition, including
opposition prefects, to join the march. "Let them come here
to indicate their observations to the social movements."
(Comment: Despite Morales' disingenuous invitation, it is
unlikely that opposition leaders would receive a warm welcome
from the MAS crowd. Marchers are carrying signs saying, "The
right will not succeed," and "Free Bolivia yes, Yankee colony
no." End comment.)

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Government Stirring Masses with anti-USG Message
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6. (C) In the run-up to the planned October 17 protests in
commemoration of the fall of ex-president "Goni" Sanchez de
Lozada, the Morales administration is again bringing out
anti-USG rhetoric to rally the troops. Presidency Minister
Quintana announced that the United States is responsible for
all that took place in October 2003, when Evo Morales headed
a 40-day siege of La Paz and led social groups against the
Sanchez de Lozada government in clashes that left over 60
dead and 500 wounded. Quintana alleged, "There was a strong
intervention of the United States in the decisions that led
to the massacre. The military was occupied by the presence of
North Americans so that, at the end of the day, we arrived at
the situation that took place, the massacre. Also there is
an element that links the U.S. government, SouthCom, the
Department of State, and the Department of Defense."

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Morales' Administration Watching U.S. Elections
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7. (C) Foreign Minister Choquehuanca announced that the
Bolivian government will reassess relations with the United
States after a new U.S. president is elected: "The American
people will define who their future president will be, and
once we know this, we will see what the mechanism will be and
who our ambassador will be. We will consider all of these
aspects after the elections." Choquehuanca also informed the
press on October 13 that the Bolivian government is
"reviewing" relations with U.S. cooperation organizations
such as USAID and DEA. "We are reviewing all of the
relations with the United States," Choquehuanca said, "we
have to review all the work of the different (U.S.)
institutions that are in the country, to evaluate if there
were advances and to determine their expulsion from the
country." Choquehuanca again admitted that bilateral
relations are passing through a "sensitive" period.

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Comment
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8. (C) Continuing high-level rhetoric against the DEA and
USAID, in conjunction with government-prompted citizen calls
for their expulsion suggest that we may soon see some
official action against agencies or sections of the mission.
In addition, Presidency Minister Quintana's recent claim that
the USG was "responsible" for the violence and deaths in 2003
may mean that the government is prompting social movements to
take more violent action against the Embassy during the
annual October 17 protests to commemorate the fall of
ex-president "Goni" Sanchez de Lozada. As is often the case
with the Morales government, anti-USG rhetoric may be a
convenient way of distracting Bolivian attention from
domestic problems, which in this case include an impending
siege of congress and the possible passage of a new
constitution that would institutionalize unequal treatment
based on race, allow for reelection of the president, and
possibly result in constitutional instability due to too-easy
amendment procedures. End comment.
URS