BOLIVIA: MORALES RALLIES (SOCIAL) TROOPS

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 002220 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PTER ASEC BL SUBJECT: BOLIVIA: MORALES RALLIES (SOCIAL) TROOPS Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 b,d ¶1. (C) Summary: President Evo Morales joined approximately 5000 marchers for the first kilometer of their journey from Oruro province to the city of La Paz, where they plan to encircle the congress to "encourage" passage of a law to convoke a referendum on the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) draft constitution. Senate President Oscar Ortiz (opposition PODEMOS party) questioned the real purpose of a march: "we (the opposition) believe that if there is a dialogue process which is meant seriously, it doesn't make sense to have a march to pressure and prejudice that dialogue process." Changes to the most critical parts of the MAS constitution seem unlikely, despite negotiations in congress, as Morales admitted over the weekend that "five years (as President) is insufficient." Plans for an October 17 protest to mark the fall from power of ex-President Gonzalo "Goni" Sanchez de Lozada are still being discussed in El Alto, and there may be new government attempts to link the event to the USG. Presidency Minister Quintana claimed on state radio October 12 that the USG was directly to blame for the October 2003 crisis that left over 60 dead, 500 wounded, and led to Sanchez de Lozada's fall from power. Foreign Minister Choquehuanca announced on October 13 that the government is "reviewing relations" with USAID and DEA, with an eye towards their departure from Bolivia. End summary. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Morales: Planning for the Future while "Making History" - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) In an interview on October 12, Morales explained his position regarding presidential reelection, a major point of his MAS constitution, saying that five years is "insufficient" to consolidate a "Bolivia with dignity and solidarity." Nevertheless, in an interview with state media Patria Nueva on October 13, Morales described how "after declaring the U.S. ambassador persona non grata and making certain very important structural policies, I told (Vice President) Alvaro (Garcia Linera) that I could die happy, we made history." Morales repeated that he expects a referendum on the draft MAS constitution to be held on January 25, followed by national elections in June. (Note: The draft MAS constitution would allow a president to be re-elected once consecutively. Morales would be able to run "for the first time" under the new constitution and then be re-elected after his first five-year term, thus giving him potentially ten more years in office. Of concern to many analysts is the final article of the constitution, which would allow the constitution to be amended by a simple majority in one house of congress if then ratified by a simple majority in a national referendum. With the current strength of the MAS in the lower house and Morales' national popularity, it is quite likely that the MAS constitution could be quickly amended to allow the president even more time in office--possibly unlimited reelection. End note.) ¶3. (C) Morales also said publicly that he trusts the military is not considering a coup and he described himself as having "destroyed" the opposition: "I perfectly remember that the Tarija prefect was hard on us, as if he had very strong arguments. We responded to every one of his arguments, but now Cossio has been destroyed...he doesn't have any argument to defend himself from a legal, political, social or economic view." (Note: Emboff met with Chuquisaca's opposition leader Fidel Herrera on October 10, and Herrera indicated that the opposition may be considering Cossio as a potential challenger to Morales in the 2009 elections if the MAS constitution passes. Herrera described Cossio as the "most credible" opposition leader because of his "tranquillity and vision" and suggested that a ticket combining Cossio (to appeal to the middle class) and an indigenous leader (possibly Potosi mayor Rene Joaquino) might be the only way to compete with Morales' popularity. End note.) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - March on La Paz: Siege or Vigil? - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (C) With the central government still unwilling to change the most controversial parts of the constitution (including articles which give extra rights to indigenous Bolivians, the consecutive reelection of the president, and the easy amendment of the constitution itself),the opposition has declared that it will not pass legislation to call for a referendum on the constitution, and social-movement pressure tactics are looking more likely. A march of approximately five thousand small-farmers, trade unionists, miners, and other social groups is making its way to La Paz. Among the gathering, the leaders of various groups are distributing pro-Morales buttons and bags of coca leaves with ads calling for a "yes" vote on the new constitution. A national government contact told Emboff that public employees will have to "donate" two percent of this month's wages to support the march. They have also been told that their presence will be required at some point. President Morales led the march for the first kilometers, after telling his followers "hopefully tomorrow or day after tomorrow the members of congress will deliver a law to guarantee the approval of the constitution." (Note: The law currently being debated in congress would call for a national referendum on the constitution: obviously Morales is confident that the constitution will then be approved by popular vote. End note.) ¶5. (C) Opposition senators view as a veiled threat Morales' promises that if the congress passes the constitutional referendum law, the marchers will return home without circling congress. Senator Carlos Borth (PODEMOS) described the arrival of the marchers as an "implicit deadline for the dialogue," while Senate President Oscar Ortiz (PODEMOS) warned that "what happens in the seat of government with the arrival of the marchers will be the fault of the president." Morales for his part invited the opposition, including opposition prefects, to join the march. "Let them come here to indicate their observations to the social movements." (Comment: Despite Morales' disingenuous invitation, it is unlikely that opposition leaders would receive a warm welcome from the MAS crowd. Marchers are carrying signs saying, "The right will not succeed," and "Free Bolivia yes, Yankee colony no." End comment.) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Government Stirring Masses with anti-USG Message - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (C) In the run-up to the planned October 17 protests in commemoration of the fall of ex-president "Goni" Sanchez de Lozada, the Morales administration is again bringing out anti-USG rhetoric to rally the troops. Presidency Minister Quintana announced that the United States is responsible for all that took place in October 2003, when Evo Morales headed a 40-day siege of La Paz and led social groups against the Sanchez de Lozada government in clashes that left over 60 dead and 500 wounded. Quintana alleged, "There was a strong intervention of the United States in the decisions that led to the massacre. The military was occupied by the presence of North Americans so that, at the end of the day, we arrived at the situation that took place, the massacre. Also there is an element that links the U.S. government, SouthCom, the Department of State, and the Department of Defense." - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Morales' Administration Watching U.S. Elections - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (C) Foreign Minister Choquehuanca announced that the Bolivian government will reassess relations with the United States after a new U.S. president is elected: "The American people will define who their future president will be, and once we know this, we will see what the mechanism will be and who our ambassador will be. We will consider all of these aspects after the elections." Choquehuanca also informed the press on October 13 that the Bolivian government is "reviewing" relations with U.S. cooperation organizations such as USAID and DEA. "We are reviewing all of the relations with the United States," Choquehuanca said, "we have to review all the work of the different (U.S.) institutions that are in the country, to evaluate if there were advances and to determine their expulsion from the country." Choquehuanca again admitted that bilateral relations are passing through a "sensitive" period. - - - - Comment - - - - ¶8. (C) Continuing high-level rhetoric against the DEA and USAID, in conjunction with government-prompted citizen calls for their expulsion suggest that we may soon see some official action against agencies or sections of the mission. In addition, Presidency Minister Quintana's recent claim that the USG was "responsible" for the violence and deaths in 2003 may mean that the government is prompting social movements to take more violent action against the Embassy during the annual October 17 protests to commemorate the fall of ex-president "Goni" Sanchez de Lozada. As is often the case with the Morales government, anti-USG rhetoric may be a convenient way of distracting Bolivian attention from domestic problems, which in this case include an impending siege of congress and the possible passage of a new constitution that would institutionalize unequal treatment based on race, allow for reelection of the president, and possibly result in constitutional instability due to too-easy amendment procedures. End comment. URS