BOLIVIA: CONGRESS READYING FOR VOTE OR SIEGE

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 002175 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/06/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ASEC BL SUBJECT: BOLIVIA: CONGRESS READYING FOR VOTE OR SIEGE REF: LA PAZ 1658 Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 b,d ¶1. (C) Summary: President Evo Morales and his Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party are now considering pushing this week for a vote in congress on a law to convoke a constitutional referendum. The opposition has a majority in the Senate and therefore can reject a law passed by the MAS-majority lower house, at which point the only way the MAS could break the deadlock would be by calling a vote of both houses together and winning by two-thirds of those present (with at least a quorum of 50 percent plus one.) Some MAS leaders are now suggesting that they have recruited 20 opposition congress members who are willing to vote with the MAS, potentially giving the MAS the quorum and two-thirds majority needed so that the constitutional referendum law could be passed without extra-legal actions. Morales has also called on his MAS-aligned social groups to "circle" the congress, a pressure tactic that Morales used in February to block opposition participation and give the MAS the two-thirds of "those present" majority needed to pass the first constitutional referendum law (which was never enacted.) Meanwhile, opposition party PODEMOS leader Tuto Quiroga tells us that opposition members of congress will sleep in their congressional offices if necessary to block the legislation for a constitutional referendum. End summary. - - - - - - - - - - Opposition Position - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) Samuel Doria Medina, the head of the opposition National Unity (UN) party announced that his eight congress members and one senator are "not looking to sell out", and Senate President Oscar Ortiz (opposition PODEMOS party) has sworn to block the constitutional referendum law unless changes are made to the text of the constitution. Ortiz warned international observers that Morales' planned siege of congress is a "self-coup...the close of congress Fujimori-style." PODEMOS leader (and former President) Tuto Quiroga told Charge over the weekend that the opposition members of congress intend to enter the congressional buildings early, evading the social-movement siege. The October 7 call for congress to meet earlier may be a MAS attempt to pre-empt the opposition's camping plans. ¶3. (C) The opposition is also calling for a complete review and clean-up of the national voter rolls: allegations of irregularities and possible fraud have been widespread since before the August 10 recall referendum. Although reportedly the National Electoral Court is currently auditing the voter rolls with support of the OAS, the EU and the Canadians, the process will take a year. The vote on the constitution, which Morales hopes will take place in February, and the potential presidential vote to follow, will therefore take place with the current voter rolls. While it is not clear that intentional fraud took place in registering voters, a number of experts from prefecture governments, the opposition, and the media have highlighted a wide range of irregularities in the voter rolls, many due to lax or non-existent recordkeeping under the Venezuelan-backed free ID program. The free ID program focused on regions of high support for Morales, and in many areas the registration drive was explicitly linked to the MAS, with signs that said, "Register to vote, vote for Evo" (reftel). - - - - - - - - - - - Morales' Street Party - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (C) Social movements from Morales' strongholds in the coca-growing regions and El Alto have announced plans to begin marching toward La Paz on October 12, with an intended arrival date of October 15 when they will circle the congress. Our contacts in El Alto suggest that the plan is still confused, however, with social group leaders contradicting each other on dates and purposes of the march, and with one prominent leader announcing on October 7 that there will be no siege, only a march. Some social movements seem to view the march and demonstration as a chance to party (a version of events encouraged by Morales' promises to his cocalero followers that the MAS will provide food, drinks and music.) Families of those who died in the October 2003 protests against former President Gonzalo "Goni" Sanchez de Lozada are calling for government pensions, however, and their protests will likely be more confrontational: October 17 (the anniversary of Sanchez de Lozada's resignation) is usually marked by demonstrations at the Embassy. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - International Observations - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (C) International observers of the failed talks in Cochabamba are putting a brave face on things, announcing publicly that a decision "could have been reached with more time," while refraining from blaming Morales for arbitrarily and unilaterally deciding to cut the negotiations short. The observers' press briefing congratulates both sides on their dedication to "the preservation of national unity, the strengthening of the state of law and of democratic institutionality, and the rejection of violence." French and Brazilian diplomats who observed the talks believe that the only thing accomplished was a cooling-off period that enabled both sides to step back from violent confrontations. In their opinion, the government clearly had the upper hand throughout the dialogue and Morales has been strengthened by the international backing he received, particularly from UNASUR. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Rejecting Violence with Massive Militarization - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (C) Defense Minister Walker San Miguel announced on October 6 that the military will increase its presence in the northern opposition department of Pando (bordering Peru and Brazil) even after the state of siege is lifted: "Once the state of siege is ended another period of consolidation will come in the form of a Amazonian Military Command, which will have more military positions, more barracks in the amazonian zone..." San Miguel added, "In the case of Cobija, yes it's a large unit, but we have to give it better logistic conditions, so that the greater military presence will permit the generation of a real institutionalization in Pando." San Miguel blamed the lack of central-government presence in Pando for problems such as drug trafficking, smuggling, and deforestation, and said that a permanent Amazonian Command would address these problems. Opposition Pando Prefect Leopoldo Fernandez was not available for comment, as he is still in government custody. San Miguel, however, did not hesitate to lay part of the blame for Pando's condition as "no-man's land" at Fernadez's door, saying "Fernandez himself contributed to the problem, that is to say that you see the degree of responsibility that the prefecture has." - - - - Comment - - - - ¶7. (C) With the opposition in congress insisting that they will not allow a constitutional referendum until key points of the draft constitution are changed (including the procedure to modify the constitution itself),a stalemate in the congress seems likely. Historically, the MAS has not allowed parliamentary rules to stop them from pushing through legislation, and it is not clear what the opposition can do if the MAS calls for a vote in the Vice President's office, as they did once before, claiming victory with two-thirds of "those present." If the draft constitution goes to a national referendum, the MAS's proposed inclusion of greater autonomy rights may be enough to win over some autonomist voters, and even without these voters, the referendum will likely pass. End comment. URS