BOLIVIA: CONGRESS READYING FOR VOTE OR SIEGE

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 002175

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/06/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ASEC BL
SUBJECT: BOLIVIA: CONGRESS READYING FOR VOTE OR SIEGE

REF: LA PAZ 1658

Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 b,d


1. (C) Summary: President Evo Morales and his Movement
Toward Socialism (MAS) party are now considering pushing this
week for a vote in congress on a law to convoke a
constitutional referendum. The opposition has a majority in
the Senate and therefore can reject a law passed by the
MAS-majority lower house, at which point the only way the MAS
could break the deadlock would be by calling a vote of both
houses together and winning by two-thirds of those present
(with at least a quorum of 50 percent plus one.) Some MAS
leaders are now suggesting that they have recruited 20
opposition congress members who are willing to vote with the
MAS, potentially giving the MAS the quorum and two-thirds
majority needed so that the constitutional referendum law
could be passed without extra-legal actions. Morales has
also called on his MAS-aligned social groups to "circle" the
congress, a pressure tactic that Morales used in February to
block opposition participation and give the MAS the
two-thirds of "those present" majority needed to pass the
first constitutional referendum law (which was never
enacted.) Meanwhile, opposition party PODEMOS leader Tuto
Quiroga tells us that opposition members of congress will
sleep in their congressional offices if necessary to block
the legislation for a constitutional referendum. End summary.

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Opposition Position
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2. (C) Samuel Doria Medina, the head of the opposition
National Unity (UN) party announced that his eight congress
members and one senator are "not looking to sell out", and
Senate President Oscar Ortiz (opposition PODEMOS party) has
sworn to block the constitutional referendum law unless
changes are made to the text of the constitution. Ortiz
warned international observers that Morales' planned siege of
congress is a "self-coup...the close of congress
Fujimori-style." PODEMOS leader (and former President) Tuto
Quiroga told Charge over the weekend that the opposition
members of congress intend to enter the congressional
buildings early, evading the social-movement siege. The
October 7 call for congress to meet earlier may be a MAS
attempt to pre-empt the opposition's camping plans.


3. (C) The opposition is also calling for a complete review
and clean-up of the national voter rolls: allegations of
irregularities and possible fraud have been widespread since
before the August 10 recall referendum. Although reportedly
the National Electoral Court is currently auditing the voter
rolls with support of the OAS, the EU and the Canadians, the
process will take a year. The vote on the constitution,
which Morales hopes will take place in February, and the
potential presidential vote to follow, will therefore take
place with the current voter rolls. While it is not clear
that intentional fraud took place in registering voters, a
number of experts from prefecture governments, the
opposition, and the media have highlighted a wide range of
irregularities in the voter rolls, many due to lax or
non-existent recordkeeping under the Venezuelan-backed free
ID program. The free ID program focused on regions of high
support for Morales, and in many areas the registration drive
was explicitly linked to the MAS, with signs that said,
"Register to vote, vote for Evo" (reftel).

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Morales' Street Party
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4. (C) Social movements from Morales' strongholds in the
coca-growing regions and El Alto have announced plans to
begin marching toward La Paz on October 12, with an intended
arrival date of October 15 when they will circle the
congress. Our contacts in El Alto suggest that the plan is
still confused, however, with social group leaders
contradicting each other on dates and purposes of the march,
and with one prominent leader announcing on October 7 that
there will be no siege, only a march. Some social movements
seem to view the march and demonstration as a chance to party
(a version of events encouraged by Morales' promises to his
cocalero followers that the MAS will provide food, drinks and
music.) Families of those who died in the October 2003
protests against former President Gonzalo "Goni" Sanchez de
Lozada are calling for government pensions, however, and
their protests will likely be more confrontational: October
17 (the anniversary of Sanchez de Lozada's resignation) is
usually marked by demonstrations at the Embassy.

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International Observations
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5. (C) International observers of the failed talks in
Cochabamba are putting a brave face on things, announcing
publicly that a decision "could have been reached with more
time," while refraining from blaming Morales for arbitrarily
and unilaterally deciding to cut the negotiations short. The
observers' press briefing congratulates both sides on their
dedication to "the preservation of national unity, the
strengthening of the state of law and of democratic
institutionality, and the rejection of violence." French and
Brazilian diplomats who observed the talks believe that the
only thing accomplished was a cooling-off period that enabled
both sides to step back from violent confrontations. In
their opinion, the government clearly had the upper hand
throughout the dialogue and Morales has been strengthened by
the international backing he received, particularly from
UNASUR.

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Rejecting Violence with Massive Militarization
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6. (C) Defense Minister Walker San Miguel announced on
October 6 that the military will increase its presence in the
northern opposition department of Pando (bordering Peru and
Brazil) even after the state of siege is lifted: "Once the
state of siege is ended another period of consolidation will
come in the form of a Amazonian Military Command, which will
have more military positions, more barracks in the amazonian
zone..." San Miguel added, "In the case of Cobija, yes it's
a large unit, but we have to give it better logistic
conditions, so that the greater military presence will permit
the generation of a real institutionalization in Pando." San
Miguel blamed the lack of central-government presence in
Pando for problems such as drug trafficking, smuggling, and
deforestation, and said that a permanent Amazonian Command
would address these problems. Opposition Pando Prefect
Leopoldo Fernandez was not available for comment, as he is
still in government custody. San Miguel, however, did not
hesitate to lay part of the blame for Pando's condition as
"no-man's land" at Fernadez's door, saying "Fernandez himself
contributed to the problem, that is to say that you see the
degree of responsibility that the prefecture has."

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Comment
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7. (C) With the opposition in congress insisting that they
will not allow a constitutional referendum until key points
of the draft constitution are changed (including the
procedure to modify the constitution itself),a stalemate in
the congress seems likely. Historically, the MAS has not
allowed parliamentary rules to stop them from pushing through
legislation, and it is not clear what the opposition can do
if the MAS calls for a vote in the Vice President's office,
as they did once before, claiming victory with two-thirds of
"those present." If the draft constitution goes to a
national referendum, the MAS's proposed inclusion of greater
autonomy rights may be enough to win over some autonomist
voters, and even without these voters, the referendum will
likely pass. End comment.
URS