BOLIVIA: U.S. MINES MAINTAIN LOW PROFILE

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 002170 SIPDIS STATE PASS TO USTR E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/02/2018 TAGS: ECON EMIN EINV ETRD BL SUBJECT: BOLIVIA: U.S. MINES MAINTAIN LOW PROFILE Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 b,d ¶1. (C) Summary: U.S. mining executives predict that if the new Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) constitution passes, it will be "the end of mining investment" in Bolivia for the foreseeable future. U.S. mining companies in Bolivia are trying not to draw any attention to themselves during a time when President Evo Morales may be looking for populist moves (such as nationalization) to distract from domestic turmoil. Although both Coeur and Apex have in the past lobbied in favor of ATPDEA extension, their executives in Bolivia do not feel that the Bolivian government will punish American mining companies for the suspension of ATPDEA benefits. Apex and Coeur executives told Emboff that they do not plan to submit any documents or testimony during the official comment period on the ATPDEA suspension. As Apex's San Cristobal Mine President Gerardo Garrett put it, "We don't really want to be associated with ATPDEA right now." Coeur President Dennis Wheeler said that he would not lobby in favor of ATPDEA this time because, "in light of Morales' lack of cooperation on narcotics, it would be embarrassing for us." End summary. - - - - - - - - - - - - Apex's Surtax Situation - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) Apex reports that there has been some progress on the bill that would eliminate the 25 percent additional surtax that only Apex's San Cristobal Mine pays. The bill has reportedly been sent by the executive to the technical commission in the lower house. From there, it must go to a vote in the lower house and then be voted on by the upper house. Again, Apex is keeping its head down, not even lobbying members of congress. Instead, according to Garrett, they hope that the bill will pass on its technical merits, since it is "not very important compared to the rest of what is happening in the country." - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Changing Times in U.S. Mines - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (C) Both Coeur's San Bartolome and Newmont's Inti Raymi recently underwent staffing changes (Humberto Rada, former president of Inti Raymi, has become the new president of Coeur's San Bartolome, replacing Jim Duff.) Rada commented privately to Emboff, "I like a challenge, but I'm not sure why they (Coeur) ever invested in this project. We have no water rights, our mining rights are not secured, and public opinion and worries (that the mining might damage Potosi's Rich Hill, a UNESCO World Heritage site) are hurting us." (Note: former San Bartolome President Jim Duff once confided to Emboff that, if they had it to do over, Coeur would not invest in the project, primarily because of political difficulties. End note.) ¶4. (C) Newmont's Inti Raymi is now headed by Jorge SAAVEDRA Cariaga, a fifteen-year Inti Raymi employee with a degree in business administration. According to Phil Dalke, Inti Raymi's only U.S. expat working in Bolivia, the recent political and security uncertainty has prompted Newmont to consider removing Dalke from Bolivia: "They're asking if they really need an expat here, now that it's getting more difficult." - - - - - - - Survival Tips - - - - - - - ¶5. (C) Coeur's Humberto Rada, who is also the head of the Bolivian Medium Miners Association, prides himself on his political acumen, and he has initiated a new production contract with the mining cooperatives that lease San Bartolome's concessions in the hopes that this will strengthen ties to a potentially powerful constituency. Rada is also taking steps to "brand" San Bartolome as a Bolivian company (emphasizing the local affiliate Manquiri over the name of Coeur, for example). ¶6. (C) In addition, Rada is planning to reach out to international diplomats whose countries have interest in mining. U.S. companies face difficulties because of the Bolivian government's anti-American bias, but Morales and his ministers have vocally welcomed investment by India (Jindal's Mutun iron mine) and South Korea (the old state copper mine of Coro Coro.) Rada hopes that more countries and companies will be associated with the Medium Miners Association, so that when problems arise "it's not just the big American and Canadian companies; Evo will listen if the Venezuelans and the Indians are also asking questions." - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Interesting Times Yield Uncertain Future - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (C) Rada admitted that outreach to international diplomats and executives will be difficult: "I can't say this is a good time to invest in Bolivia, because I'm not willing to lie." He described the current tax situation as bad, but added that the real deal-breaker is the draft MAS constitution, which may be voted on in early 2009 if Evo gets his way. "The terms of the constitution will kill mining," he said, adding that it would damage industrial development in general and foreign investment in particular. ¶8. (C) The fallout from the potential new constitution and the dramatically increased taxes (up 12.5 percent in December 2007) are already being seen in U.S. companies. Apex's San Christobal continues to hope that the Bolivian government will eliminate a 25 percent "excess profits surtax" that currently only San Cristobal pays. The government has informed Apex (and 35 percent owner Sumitomo) that the company can not deduct hedge book costs. Some analysts believe that Apex's stocks are trading at one fifth of the value they would if the mine were not located in Bolivia. (Note: Despite the fact that Bolivian analysts have announced that San Cristobal alone is responsible for over half the growth in Bolivia's GDP, the Mining Minister has never visited the mine and high-level government contacts still routinely refuse to meet with San Cristobal executives. End note.) ¶9. (C) A year ago, Newmont's Inti Raymi was conducting further exploration in an attempt to lengthen the life of their twenty-six year old gold mines in Oruro. Now, Inti Raymi President Jorge Saavedra predicts that the mine will close in September of 2009. He expects the decision to "turn friends into enemies" as the 500-plus local employees, who have previously identified with the mine, will blame the company for their lost employment. Inti Raymi plans to offer its employees small-business management training: despite the worldwide mining boom, Saavedra has little hope that Inti E Raymi's experienced miners will be able to find employment in the field "since no one is opening new mines in Bolivia." When asked about Jindal's Mutun iron mine, Saavedra doubted that the local residents in Santa Cruz would be willing to let Oruro miners take their jobs. (Note: Many observers still question whether the Mutun mine will begin operations. According to the Honorary Indian Consul in La Paz, however, Jindal has finished exploration and expects to begin initial construction on the mine site in early 2009. End note.) - - - - Comment - - - - ¶10. (C) In the nearly-three years since Evo Morales became President, observers of the mining industry in Bolivia have become increasingly pessimistic. The government frequently touts Jindal's Mutun and the South Korean state mining company's Coro Coro investments as positive developments in the industry. Our contacts point out, however, that both of these deposits have been known for a long time (Coro Coro, in fact, was previously mined out by the state mining company COMIBOL and is only profitable to mine now thanks to record copper prices.) No substantial new exploration is taking place, and what few deposits are found are often not being developed: Newmont reportedly has found potential deposits but will not invest in them at this time because of political uncertainty. Bolivia calls itself a "mining country", but increasingly that appellation belongs to the past. Evo Morales' policies and anti-foreign-investment bias are costing Bolivia its chance to take advantage of the current mining boom. URS