Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08LAPAZ2087
2008-09-24 22:21:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy La Paz
Cable title:
QUIET IN SANTA CRUZ, PANDO PREFECT STILL IN CUSTODY
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C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 002087
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/24/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM ASEC BL
SUBJECT: QUIET IN SANTA CRUZ, PANDO PREFECT STILL IN CUSTODY
Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 b,d
C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 002087
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/24/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM ASEC BL
SUBJECT: QUIET IN SANTA CRUZ, PANDO PREFECT STILL IN CUSTODY
Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 b,d
1. (SBU) Following President Evo Morales' order that
government-aligned social groups suspend their siege of Santa
Cruz for 48 hours, Bolivia is relatively calm on September
24. The city of Santa Cruz canceled its founding day
ceremonies and parades because of food shortages and the
possibility of violence due to the encircling presence of
government supporters. The leaders of some social groups
(particularly those groups that have been on the road for
multiple days) are publicly chafing at the order not to enter
the city of Santa Cruz. Skirmishes have been reported
between government-aligned groups and the Santa Cruz Youth
Union in Montero, 80 km outside of the city of Santa Cruz.
RSO reports that a number of the groups originally besieging
the city seem to have dispersed, while one large group has
withdrawn to regroup about 60 km from the city.
2. (SBU) Despite a judicial order that opposition Pando
Prefect Leopoldo Fernandez (arrested under "state of
emergency" powers) be transferred to Sucre, the government
announced on September 23 that Fernandez will remain in La
Paz for three months. Vice Minister Ruben Gamarra suggested
that Fernandez may be moved to a military prison. Daily
protests at the San Pedro prison where Fernandez is currently
being held have led to press reports of the protesters (often
retirees) demanding their chits to prove to the government
that they protested as instructed.
3. (SBU) Judge Alvaro Melgarejo, who announced on September
22 his intention to comply with the Supreme Court order to
transfer Fernandez to Sucre, complained publicly on September
23 that he and his family have been threatened as a result of
his attempt to obey the law. "There are threats against my
life, against my family, against the (court) officials...the
government is responsible because they've informed me that
they wanted to intercept my car, they want to beat me."
Melgarejo added that he had moved his family to a safe
location.
4. (C) Comment: Although Santa Cruz has been momentarily
relieved by a presidentially-ordered lull in the siege of the
city, violence is still possible if the opposition prefects
do not sign the pre-negotiation agreement that President
Morales signed before leaving for the UNGA. Opposition
senators have also declared their intent to block any
legislation calling for a referendum on the constitution
unless the government and prefects make substantial changes
to the draft constitution (requiring two-thirds vote rather
than a simple majority to change the constitution, modifying
the presidential reelection article, defining or eliminating
the term "plurinational", and protecting private property.)
If the opposition prefects refuse to sign Morales' agreement,
the government-aligned forces poised outside of Santa Cruz
city are likely to step up their pressure tactics, possibly
resulting in violence. If the Senate blocks Morales'
constitutional referendum, government-aligned groups may
surround the congress (as they did in February 2008) in an
attempt to block opposition senators from entering and
voting.
5. (C) Comment continued: The British Ambassador, who is
acting as an international observer at the
government/opposition talks in Cochabamba, believes that
Brazilian President Lula da Silva has been instrumental in
pressuring Morales to negotiate and refrain from using a
heavy hand. (Note: The British also told us that the
Venezuelan representative of the UNASUR team is "almost out
of control", pressuring all observers to support the
government and shun the opposition. It reportedly got so bad
that the other international observers asked the Cuban
representative to please try to control his Venezuelan
comrade. End note.) If the government and opposition reach
an agreement, the question is whether either side will abide
by the agreement once the international spotlight is no
longer trained on their actions. The opposition may have
successfully bought a little time, but Morales' first two and
a half years in office show us that he is willing to bend or
break the rules and that he is not amenable to being
thwarted. End comment.
URS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/24/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM ASEC BL
SUBJECT: QUIET IN SANTA CRUZ, PANDO PREFECT STILL IN CUSTODY
Classified By: EcoPol Chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 b,d
1. (SBU) Following President Evo Morales' order that
government-aligned social groups suspend their siege of Santa
Cruz for 48 hours, Bolivia is relatively calm on September
24. The city of Santa Cruz canceled its founding day
ceremonies and parades because of food shortages and the
possibility of violence due to the encircling presence of
government supporters. The leaders of some social groups
(particularly those groups that have been on the road for
multiple days) are publicly chafing at the order not to enter
the city of Santa Cruz. Skirmishes have been reported
between government-aligned groups and the Santa Cruz Youth
Union in Montero, 80 km outside of the city of Santa Cruz.
RSO reports that a number of the groups originally besieging
the city seem to have dispersed, while one large group has
withdrawn to regroup about 60 km from the city.
2. (SBU) Despite a judicial order that opposition Pando
Prefect Leopoldo Fernandez (arrested under "state of
emergency" powers) be transferred to Sucre, the government
announced on September 23 that Fernandez will remain in La
Paz for three months. Vice Minister Ruben Gamarra suggested
that Fernandez may be moved to a military prison. Daily
protests at the San Pedro prison where Fernandez is currently
being held have led to press reports of the protesters (often
retirees) demanding their chits to prove to the government
that they protested as instructed.
3. (SBU) Judge Alvaro Melgarejo, who announced on September
22 his intention to comply with the Supreme Court order to
transfer Fernandez to Sucre, complained publicly on September
23 that he and his family have been threatened as a result of
his attempt to obey the law. "There are threats against my
life, against my family, against the (court) officials...the
government is responsible because they've informed me that
they wanted to intercept my car, they want to beat me."
Melgarejo added that he had moved his family to a safe
location.
4. (C) Comment: Although Santa Cruz has been momentarily
relieved by a presidentially-ordered lull in the siege of the
city, violence is still possible if the opposition prefects
do not sign the pre-negotiation agreement that President
Morales signed before leaving for the UNGA. Opposition
senators have also declared their intent to block any
legislation calling for a referendum on the constitution
unless the government and prefects make substantial changes
to the draft constitution (requiring two-thirds vote rather
than a simple majority to change the constitution, modifying
the presidential reelection article, defining or eliminating
the term "plurinational", and protecting private property.)
If the opposition prefects refuse to sign Morales' agreement,
the government-aligned forces poised outside of Santa Cruz
city are likely to step up their pressure tactics, possibly
resulting in violence. If the Senate blocks Morales'
constitutional referendum, government-aligned groups may
surround the congress (as they did in February 2008) in an
attempt to block opposition senators from entering and
voting.
5. (C) Comment continued: The British Ambassador, who is
acting as an international observer at the
government/opposition talks in Cochabamba, believes that
Brazilian President Lula da Silva has been instrumental in
pressuring Morales to negotiate and refrain from using a
heavy hand. (Note: The British also told us that the
Venezuelan representative of the UNASUR team is "almost out
of control", pressuring all observers to support the
government and shun the opposition. It reportedly got so bad
that the other international observers asked the Cuban
representative to please try to control his Venezuelan
comrade. End note.) If the government and opposition reach
an agreement, the question is whether either side will abide
by the agreement once the international spotlight is no
longer trained on their actions. The opposition may have
successfully bought a little time, but Morales' first two and
a half years in office show us that he is willing to bend or
break the rules and that he is not amenable to being
thwarted. End comment.
URS